The Newbie Achilles Heel - Overpaying for a Good Horse

Original article written by Regina Moore posted 8 years 3 weeks ago

There seems to be a rash of this in the past game year or so. I've heard from a handful of players who are newbies or juniors, who have suffered severe buyer's remorse after spending a whole lot of money on a high level galloper, or horse that was otherwise supposed to be good, only to find out that the horse isn't near as talented as they had expected.

That's a tough pill to swallow. Unfortunately, the simple fact is that, while there's a huge surplus of unwanted ordinary horses, there aren't enough top quality horses to go around. Therefore, most top level gallopers, or horses that having been racing and have some stakes success, are in high demand. That high demand means that the seller can price them at a premium -- in other words, at a price that the horse is highly unlikely to earn back. Buyers with many millions usually don't mind that the horse won't earn back the purchase price, as those players are often just looking for a horse that they can enjoy racing at the (hopefully) top level, and they can easily absorb the financial drain.

For newbies, however, whose financial survival depends upon a stable full of horses that can be profitable, spending a large sum of money for a horse that can't ever pay for itself can wipe them out.

Plain and simple, the vast majority of unraced "stakes" and "allowance" gallopers in SIM are priced way beyond what they will ever earn back.


A NOTE ABOUT DIVISIONS
I've emphasized in other articles that every horse should be evaluated in light of its breed/distance/surface division. This just can't be stressed enough when one is laying out a huge portion of their bank balance for a horse that is, say, a "stakes" galloper.

First, be aware that a horse's gallop isn't The Last Word on what that horse will accomplish in its racing career. Some divisions are so saturated with high quality youngsters that there's a good chance a "stakes" galloper (as opposed to a freak galloper) will never win a stakes race. Or, if it does win a stakes race, it'll win such a race just once or twice in its career, and never be a top competitor in its division.

I'm a very rare player that has played all breeds and types since my first year in SIM. In my experience, the toughest divisions, where a "stakes" galloper will be fortunate to win any stakes at all, are Thoroughbred dirt routers, Thoroughbred turf routers, Standardbred trotters and pacers, and Quarter Horse sprinters and mids.


A NOTE ABOUT MIXERS
When it comes to ordinary horses, the stock breeds (Appys/Paints/QHs) and Arabian sprinters can be great money makers. But when it comes to top horses, it can be much tougher to get a good one. This is because few players are interested in mixers; therefore, most breeds have just a few players that dominate those breeds, and who breed the majority of the horses. Often, these top breeders will put a lot of culled youngsters up for sale, including "stakes" gallopers. The problem with buying these horses, however, is that stock breeds and Arabians don't have multiple circuits. They all race in the western United States. You can't travel to another region to duck the top horses. So, when you buy a large breeder's top culls, those culls are going to have competition in the stakes races from the very horses that same breeder kept -- in other words, the "freak" gallopers.

So, if you spend, say, $50,000 on a "stakes" galloping Paint sprinter, you're going to be competing against a whole lot of freaks in the stakes races. The majority of mixer stakes races have $50,000 purses. Let's say your horse is fortunate enough to finish third in stakes races a couple of times. That's $5000 each race, or $10,000. Let's say your horse wins three allowance races while racing two seasons. Each usually has a purse of $12,000 with $6,000 to the winner. So, that's $18,000 added to the $10,000 -- your "stakes" horse has only earned back $28,000 from those races. Of course, during its career the horse is going to have some seconds and thirds in ordinary races. So, let's say the horse earned $35,000 in its career. That's a $15,000 loss on a horse that you bought, thinking it was going to a "stakes" competitor.

On the other hand, if you spend $1,000 to buy a mere "productive" Paint sprinter, and it wins three races conditioned allowance or claiming races in a three-year career, those wins alone get you $18,000 -- quite a nice profit.

A side note on freak gallopers in mixers -- even they aren't a guarantee of a top level horse. I've had a few that struggle to win allowance races, let alone a stakes race.


THE SELLER - FRIEND OR FOE?
When you see a high priced horse on the sales list or on the forum, NEVER assume that the seller wouldn't be selling the horse for that price, unless the horse was worth it. The seller is looking is looking out for his or her own interest, and rightfully so. I've seen horses on the sales list priced at, say, $50,000 that have won over $200,000 and a handful of stakes races. What a deal, right? Not hardly. In looking at the horse's races, every stakes race was in restricted competition -- say, just for Game Point Sired horses, where the horse only competed against one or two other marginal horses, so winning came easily. The horse will get clobbered in open competition and is worth almost nothing at all, let alone $50,000.

Another big red flag is the horse that's been racing for a few years. Just because he won a few stakes as a 2yo and 3yo, doesn't mean he's still anywhere near as good, now that he's a 5yo. But some sellers will price an older horse based upon its career earnings, without any consideration for the fact that the majority of horses earn the most money the first couple of years of their careers (though there are some exceptions to that.)

The seller is not your friend.

However, if you can get friendly with some other players, whether in chat or via the forum, etc, there's a good chance that you might have some better-than-ordinary horses offered to you -- if not as gifts, then at least for a lower price than the seller would normally ask for. It can only be to your advantage to get to know other players.

Also, if you're liking some horses on the sales list (or offered via the forum), but you can't see any way that they can be profitable, considering the price tags, you can try sending the seller a private message and see if they'll drop the price, in light of your newbie status. They might agree to your request. They might even be so flattered by your interest, that they'll cut you all kinds of special deals on other horses. However, don't approach the seller with an attitude that you're entitled to special consideration, just because you're a newbie. That's a turnoff. Blatant begging is also a turnoff. Be prepared to be turned down or ignored. Nobody in SIM owes you anything.

As a side note, I'm a player that is very sympathetic and helpful to newbies. Yet, I don't sell or give away youngsters or racehorses. If the horse is any good at all, then I selfishly and happily want to keep it for myself. As far as I'm concerned, there's no such thing as having too many good horses.


SOME ACTUAL EXAMPLES
I buy very few racing prospects from other players, as I prefer to take my chances with expensive Steward-breds. Here's all the "stakes" or higher youngsters I've purchased from other players in past six or seven game years, that are currently 3yo or older. The horse's name and division is followed by its cost and its career earnings.
SPHINX - 3yo TB dirt route filly, 1 million, 36k
SHEMSHAL - 6yo TB turf route gelding, 2.5 million, 274k
VICTOR VICTORIAN - 6yo TB dirt route gelding, 1.5 million, 188k (claimed from me for 35k as a 5yo)
JUST SCORE - 6yo TB dirt route gelding, 1.5 million, 104k (claimed from me for 25k as a 5yo)
PARADISE STREET - 6yo AW sprint filly, 325k at auction, 850k (she actually made a profit and won the Steward's Cup!)

Veteran players often can't do any better with expensive purchases than new players.


CONCLUSION
Plain and simple, the more you pay for a horse, the harder it is for that horse to be profitable. Horses that aren't profitable (and that includes breeding stock) are bad news for players who are struggling financially.

Always bear in mind that there's a reason why the seller is selling, and it's rarely because the seller wants to be "nice" (even though they might think they're being nice in their own minds). If a horse is going to be a consistent stakes performer, it's extremely unlikely that it's going to be priced low enough to allow the buyer to make a profit.

Of course, newbies want top quality horses. We all do! But those horses are few and far between. It's not the kind of thing you can automatically have, just because you say you want it. Most players hoard the best of the best, or else will only sell their best for outlandish prices.

Breeding your own is certainly an option, but a narrow option, if you have little money with which to buy mares and pay stud fees.

As always, my overall best advice (which many inexperienced players have found success with) is to buy lots of horses cheap, and race them in the easiest spots you can find for them, because they'll earn purse money. That purse money adds up, the more horses you race. Once you get your bank balance into seven figures, then you start giving yourself options with higher quality purchases, whether for racing stock or breeding stock. However, even then, I strongly advise against spending a huge portion of your bank balance on a single expensive horse. As this article has hopefully shown, such a purchase is unlikely to make you money, or even be a satisfying performer.

Success in SIM often comes in increments. It can seem like painfully small steps for the impatient, but you hopefully aren't reading this article unless you expect to be in the game a long time. Building a solid foundation is the best thing you can do for your stable's long-term success. Top quality runners only come along every so often. Ordinary horses are always available. When you know how to make money with ordinary horses, you'll eventually build up a bankroll that can give you the flexibility to buy better and better horses.

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