Year 48 Triple Crown Trail series

[Dan Kauffman]

Week 2 Monday review

* Heavy favorite Zero (Cleo Patra) unloaded a decisive stretch run to win the Grade 3, $125,000 Border Derby in New Mexico by almost two lengths with a 90, in the process becoming a Derby lock with 85 points. He is 3-for-4, the only loss a runner-up finish a neck behind Thunder Run in the Grade 1 Inglewood Futurity to end last year, and has averaged a 92.3 figure (boosted by a 99 debut). Favorite Ending (Mike Springer) ran well in finishing second with an 82, but has finished second in all three of his races thus far and would have to win a Grade 1 next out to likely have any Derby chance.

[Dan Kauffman]

Week 2 Friday preview

* Nice Work Pal (Dan Gordon) tops the earnings chart in the Grade 3, $125,000 Loki Masterpiece Stakes over 8.5 furlongs in California, but could be challenged by Halcyon (Eric Nalbone) and/or Ruler Exaggerates (Lucas Davenport). Nice Work Pal ran a career-best 90 in winning the Grade 3 Flames Stakes last year, then ran a relatively poor third with a 75 in the Grade 1 Louisville Jockey Club Stakes to close his juvenile campaign. With 67 points, he only needs one good showing -- either this race or likely in Week 4 -- to be assured a Derby spot. Halcyon ended last year with his best career performance, posting a 91 to win the Artillery Stakes. He has 48 points and needs either one good showing (likely a win) or two solid ones to secure his Derby berth. Ruler Exaggerates also has a stakes win, in last year's Majesty Stakes, but his Derby position is more precarious. He only has 28 points, and with a top figure of 84, he probably needs to show more either here or in two weeks to make an impact. Safe Step (Karen McBrian) is an interesting longshot whose only previous outing is a maiden victory with an 84 in Week 11 last year.

* Walking Stick (Abe Froman) and Rockets (Eric Nalbone) highlight the field in the Grade 2, $150,000 Pacific Coast Highway Stakes over 9 furlongs in California. Walking Stick won his first two starts with a pair of 90 figures, including the Grade 3 Persevere Stakes, before running a very poor ninth in the Steward's Cup Juvenile. He has 35 points, and a win here would all but guarantee a Derby spot. He doesn't have to win, as he will have another chance to earn points in Week 4. Rockets debuted with a sizzling 96, then ran second in the Persevere Stakes with an 89, a neck behind Walking Stick, and finished fifth with an 82 in the SC Juvenile. He needs to win this one to be comfortable about his chances, although a runner-up effort keeps him alive. Danny (Keith Place) is the best of the longshots even though he has yet to break his maiden. He ran second with an 81 in the Grade 2 Two Year Old Marathon to close last year and has 26 points. Other longshots include Vision of Magic (Kent Saunders), a maiden and NW2 winner with a top figure of 86; Special Salute (Kaine O'Brien), a maiden winner with an 83 before finishing last in the SC Juvenile; and Secret Faith (Mark Pavlak), a filly who broke her maiden third out with an 82.

* Creeping Suspicion (Jon Xett) may be scaring them all away from the Grade 3, $125,000 Tremendous Stakes over 9 furlongs in Kentucky. Already close to a Derby lock with 67 points, the colt is coming off a strong victory in the Grade 1 Louisville Jockey Club Stakes, and his only loss came while posting a 98 in last year's absurd Grade 3 California Chrome Stakes, edged by Prince Louder and Tarasenko. As for the longshots, The Upside Down (Jack Meyer) broke his maiden last out with an 84 after running second in two previous attempts; and Cyber Mind (Keith Maidlow) broke his maiden second out with an 86 after finishing second with an 88 in his debut, although he's coming off a poor fourth in an NW2 to close last year.

* Bluebird Returning (Nena Olson) and St. Nicholas Day (Ashley Hunt) are prepared to duel in the Bayou (not in Louise Bayou, because that's obscene) in the Grade 3, $125,000 Rising Star Stakes over 8.5 furlongs in New Orleans. Bluebird Returning won his maiden debut with a 91, ran second to St. Nicholas Day in the Grade 3 Buckingham Stakes with an 86, then won the Grade 2 Two Year Old Marathon with an 85 to close last year with 63 points. He only needs one good effort to be Derby-bound. St. Nicholas Day won his first three starts, the last two with 90s, as he took the Grade 3 Manhattan Stakes easily before turning aside Bluebird Returning next out by a length. He was a slightly disappointing sixth in the Steward's Cup Juvenile, but is in good Derby shape with 65 points. Daniel Tiger (Keith Maidlow, and two thumbs up for being named after my 3-year-old's favorite show!) won his debut with an 88 before running second in an NW2 and third in the Grade 2 Louisiana Jackpot to close last year. With 27 points, he needs to pull a surprise here and run well in Week 4 to have a Derby shot.

* Quickdraw Mcgraw (Dakota Fox) and Outer Space (Mike Eaton) highlight the field in the Grade 3, $125,000 Texan Derby over 8.5 furlongs. Quickdraw Mcgraw won his debut with an 88, then hit the board in three straight stakes events without winning any, the best result coming when he ran an 89 in finishing second by a head to Nice Work Pal in the Grade 3 Flames Stakes. Those stakes efforts resulted in 61 points and a solid Derby position, although a win either this week or in Week 4 might be needed to head into the Derby with confidence. Outer Space won his first two starts, a maiden with an 86 and an NW2 with an 83, before running second with a career-best 88 in the Grade 1 Bubbly Stakes and finishing a poor seventh in the Steward's Cup Juvenile. With 45 points, a graded stakes win either this week or two weeks from now should get him in the Derby, and a pair of on-the-board efforts also could give enough points. To Great Heights (Abe Froman) won his maiden debut with an 86 and an allowance with an 86 before settling for a disappointing fourth in the Grade 2 Empire Maker Stakes to close last year. He needs a win to put himself in realistic striking distance of a Derby berth.

* Tarasenko (Izzy Rafferty) headlines the Grade 2, $200,000 Fountain of Gold Stakes over 8.5 furlongs in Florida. Tarasenko tied Zero in a ridiculous dead heat in their maiden debuts as each posted a 99. He then ran a 100 in LOSING (what?) by a nose to Prince Louder, while edging Creeping Suspicion by a neck in an even more ridiculous Grade 3 California Chrome Stakes. He ended the year by placing third with an 89 in the Steward's Cup Juvenile, has 63 points and is a Derby near-lock. The contenders: Soar to the Ring (Aeon Knight, and I pictured Shawn Michaels' entrance in Wrestlemania 12 here), a filly, won the Dearest Stakes with an 81 to close last year. She only has 25 points and unless she pulls a stunner here she's probably not going to the Derby. Daddy Dreams (Vincent Barratt) won his second maiden try with an 86, then was second with an 83 in the Grade 2 Louisiana Jackpot and stands on 29 points, needing a good showing here and in two weeks to make the Derby. We Forgot Why (Andrew James) tried the Don't Mess Stakes in his debut and won it with an 86, then was third in the Grade 3 With Kind Regards Stakes and fifth in the Grade 1 Louisville Jockey Club Stakes. He has 32 points and needs to show more to be a Derby threat. And if you want to know how to make money with a truly mediocre horse, see what Ben Stover has done with the filly Many Hollas. She's no threat here, but full credit for smart race placement.

[Dan Gordon]

http://www.simhorseracing.com/race.php?RaceID=995761

It's extremely rare (like a solar eclipse) but somehow you missed one. America's favorite gelding, Awakened Heart, romped to victory in the $100,000 George Washington Stakes in Puerto Rico. The future Baltimore Crown winner is rolling now.

[Dan Kauffman]

Puerto Rico races are not part of the official TCT, but nice win!

[Nena Olson]

He is also not TC nominated, unfortunately

[Dan Gordon]

He is also not TC nominated, unfortunately

Wow, what more could I do to * this up? Steeplechasing!!

[Nena Olson]

He is also not TC nominated, unfortunately

Wow, what more could I do to * this up? Steeplechasing!!

Maybe he will be a G1 chaser haha

[Dan Kauffman]

Week 2 Friday review

* Pace-setter Nice Work Pal (Dan Gordon) held off hard-charging Halcyon (Eric Nalbone) by a neck with an 85 to take the Grade 3, $125,000 Loki Masterpiece Stakes in California. Nice Work Pal earned his second career Grade 3 victory and locked up a Derby spot with 97 points. Halcyon posted an 84 but came up just shy of his first graded stakes title. However, he's in good Derby shape with 66 points and a prep race left. Ruler Exaggerates (Lucas Davenport) settled for third and has had two straight semi-disappointing outings. With 40 points, he'll need a big effort next out.

* Rockets (Eric Nalbone) took control in the far turn and cruised to the finish to win the Grade 2, $150,000 Pacific Coast Highway Stakes in California by two lengths with a 91. He scored his first stakes victory with his best figure since a 96 in his debut, and with 63 points appears in good shape to cement a Derby spot next out. Walking Stick (Abe Froman), a Grade 3 winner last year, settled for second with an 83 and has 59 points, so a top-two finish next out should be enough for a Derby spot points-wise. Vision of Magic (Kent Saunders) was third and with 35 points would have to win a Grade 1 or Grade 2 next out to have a Derby shot.

* Creeping Suspicion (Jon Xett) was the best in the stretch to win the Grade 3, $125,000 Tremendous Stakes in Kentucky by a length with an 87. This follows up his Grade 1 win in the Louisville Jockey Club Stakes to close last year, and with 97 points he's a Derby lock. The Upside Down (Jack Meyer) pulled a bit of a surprise by finishing second with an 83, but he'll need to win a Grade 1 next out to improve his 29 points enough to make the Derby. Derby lock Quo Vadimus (Susie Rydell), who has 102 points and a pair of graded stakes wins, including the Grade 1 Bubbly Stakes last year, was a disappointing third here.

* Bluebird Returning (Nena Olson) went wire-to-wire with a 90 to take the Grade 3, $125,000 Rising Star Stakes in Louisiana. This follows up a Grade 2 victory to close last year, and makes him a Derby lock with 93 points. St. Nicholas Day (Ashley Hunt) settled for second with an 85, but the two-time Grade 3 winner still appears Derby-bound with 83 points. Daniel Tiger (Keith Maidlow) was third with an 80 and needs a Grade 1 or Grade 2 win next out to improve on his 39 points.

* Outer Space (Mike Eaton) rallied down the stretch to nip Quikcdraw Mcgraw (Dakota Fox) by a neck with an 84 in the Grade 3, $125,000 Texan Derby. Outer Space earned his first stakes victory and with 75 points may have done enough to be Derby-bound (and he'll likely have one more prep). Quickdraw Mcgraw posted an 82 and has 79 points --also likely enough to make the Derby -- but hasn't won since his debut and has no stakes wins (he's been second three straight times).

* Tarasenko (Izzy Rafferty) stormed to the wire 1 1/2 lengths in front to win the Grade 2, $200,000 Fountain of Gold Stakes in Florida with an 87. He earned his first stakes victory (having been second with a 100 in a ridiculous Grade 3 California Chrome Stakes and third in the Steward's Cup Juvenile) and is on his way to the Derby with 103 points. We Forgot Why (Andrew James) was second with an 80, and with 56 points a good effort by the listed stakes winner in two weeks could make him Derby-eligible. Daddy Dreams (Vincent Barratt) was third, and the two-time Grade 2 on-the-board finisher has an outside Derby shot with 45 points.

[Dan Kauffman]

Week 3 Monday preview

* Mad World (Bill Outsilver), a miler superstar who was fourth in the Steward's Cup Juvenile, leads the field into the Grade 2, $150,000 Rebellion Stakes over 8.5 furlongs in Arkansas. Mad World won his first four races, all milers and three of them graded stakes -- including the Grade 1 Arcadia Futurity -- with a top figure of 94 before posting an 88 in the SC Juvenile. He has 115 points and can run the Derby if wanted. The One Moment (Scott Eiland) won the Grade 3 With Kind Regard Stakes with an 86 last year before running eighth in the SC Juvenile. He needs a big run with 35 points. Turncloak (Kent Saunders) ran an 86 in a winning maiden debut, then ran second in a pair of stakes, one a Grade 3. He also stands on 35 points.

* Makes Me Swoon (Laura Ferguson), a filly, is the top entrant by earnings in the Grade 3, $125,000 Sun Devil Derby over 9 furlongs in Arizona. She won the Grade 1 Inglewood Starlet last year, has averaged an 88.7 in three starts and has 67 points. Foolish Notion (Pete Vella) ran third in the Grade 1 Bubbly Stakes and second in the Grade 2 Trial By Summer Sales Graduate Futurity last year, has 52 points and is looking for a big run here to be Derby-bound. The Killing Curse (Darcy Mcbride) has maiden and NW2 victories with a top figure of 88, and is looking for a big stakes scalp to improve on 27 points (even with a win, he'd need another prep to get enough points to qualify for the Derby, but the Preakness certainly is in play). Boil the Sea (Erin Sanderson) also has maiden and NW2 wins with a top figure of 87, and is in the same boat as The Killing Curse with 21 points.

[Dan Kauffman]

Week 3 Monday review

* Mad World (Bill Outsilver) dominated the Grade 2, $150,000 Rebellion Stakes in Arkansas, pulling away to a 3 1/2-length victory with an 88. He's now 5-for-6 lifetime, having won his first four starts in milers, including the Grade 1 Arcadia Futurity last year. He was fourth in the Steward's Cup Juvenile, and with 155 points can take a shot at the Derby if Outsilver chooses. The One Moment (Scott Eiland), a Grade 3 winner last year before running eighth in the SC Juvenile, was second with a 72 here and would likely have to run another prep before the Derby to improve on his 59 points. Third-place finisher Turncloak (Kent Saunders), a Grade 3 runner-up as a juvenile, is in the same boat with 51 points.

* Foolish Notion (Pete Vella) rallied to edge pacesetter Makes Me Swoon (Laura Ferguson) by a neck at the wire with a 91 in the Grade 3, $125,000 Sun Devil Derby in Arizona. Foolish Notion earned his first stakes victory after hitting the board in a Grade 1 (third) and a Grade 2 (second) his previous two outings. With 82 points, he appears Derby-bound. Makes Me Swoon, a filly who won the Grade 1 Inglewood Starlet to close last year, posted a 90 in a strong effort here and has 85 points. She can take a shot at the Derby if she wants, but it seems more likely we'll see her in the Oaks.

[Dan Kauffman]

Week 3 Friday preview

* Amun (Karl Smythe) and Know the Truth (Gerry Hardie) need to win the Grade 3, $125,000 Oyster Bay Stakes over 9 furlongs in New York to have any chance to running in the Derby ... and even then the victor may not get in on points. Amun won two listed stakes outings (both Game Point Sired Stakes) as a juvenile, but was a disappointing fourth two weeks ago in the Grade 3 I'll Have Another Stakes and stands on 42 points. Know the Truth won maiden and NW2 outings with mid-80s figures before finishing second in the Grade 2 Christmas Cup to close last year with 39 points. This is his first Year 48 outing. Yorktown (Nick Gilmore) is an intriguing longshot who won his only career start, posting an 84 in a maiden race at the end of last year. (Yorktown, Va., also is an amazing place to visit.)

* Steward's Cup Juvenile champion Prince Louder (Erin Sanderson) is facing (as of Wednesday) a field of maidens in the Grade 2, $150,000 Owlpha Stakes over 9 furlongs in Kentucky. Prince Louder, already a millionaire, is 3-for-3 with a ridiculous average figure of 98.7, having posted 100s in his first two starts (one of them the epic Grade 3 California Chrome Stakes) and a 98 in the SC. The top figure by any other horse in this race is a 71.

* Derby lock Blue Bayou (Danny Derby) heads the field in the Grade 2, $150,000 Battle Cry Stakes over 9 furlongs in Kentucky. The colt ran a 100 in his debut, posted a 95 in winning the Grade 3 Cape Stakes, then ran a close second to Prince Louder with a 93 in the Steward's Cup Juvenile to finish last year with 95 points. Spooky Music (Vincent Barratt), a filly, won maiden and NW2 outings with a top figure of 88, before running second by a neck to Derby hopeful Quo Vadimus with an 86 in the Grade 2 Empire Maker Stakes to close last year. She has 39 points, and an upset win could send her to the Derby, but I'll be a little surprised if she doesn't go for the Oaks instead. Daniel Tiger (Keith Maidlow), who won his debut with an 88, has run third in two straight graded stakes and stands on 39 points, needing a big upset to make the Derby. Doctor Lion (Eric Nalbone), the longshot, won his debut with an 84 two weeks ago.

* Gladiator (Kris Bobby), a Derby lock, is the heavy favorite in the Grade 1, $250,000 Sunshine Park Derby over 9 furlongs in Florida. He is 4-for-4 with an average figure of 95.0, including a 100 in his debut. He has since won three graded stakes, including the Grade 3 Giacomo Stakes with a 96 two weeks ago, and has yet to face a serious challenge while accumulating 105 points. The top challenger is Frost (Laura Ferguson), who won maiden and NW2 outings with a top figure of 87 before running a disappointing fifth in the Grade 2 Christmas Cup to close last year.

* Undefeated Derby lock Thunder Run (Andrew James) is the colt to beat in the Grade 2, $200,000 Buccaneer Derby over 9 furlongs in Florida. Thunder Run is 4-for-4 -- all of them stakes outings -- with an average figure of 88.5. The victories include the Grade 1 Inglewood Futurity by a neck over Zero to close last year, and the Grade 3 End Result Stakes two weeks ago. He has 120 points. Sinister Eyes (J.r. Lewis) won the Grade 3 Izmir Stakes with an 88 last year before finishing a poor fifth in the Grade 2 Nevsehir Stakes to close his juvenile campaign with 52 points. A win or a runner-up finish (worth 24 points) will probably be enough to qualify for the Derby. Lie in Our Graves (Jon Xett) won his debut with an 87 before running third and second in graded stakes outings -- the latter coming against Thunder Run in the End Result Stakes. He has 35 points and must pull an upset to be Derby-bound. Trouble With Girls (Sherry Crow) isn't a Derby contender, but did win an NW3 with an 86 last out and can't be dismissed here. Do Not Open (Laura Ferguson), a filly, also is coming off a victory (in an MSW) with an 86.

[Dan Kauffman]

Week 3 Friday review

* Yorktown (Nick Gilmore) unleashed a tremendous closing kick to leave them all in the dust in the Grade 3, $125,000 Oyster Bay Stakes in New York, winning by almost four lengths with a career-best 95. In only his second career race -- the first coming on the last day of Year 47, with an 84 in a maiden victory -- Yorktown showed he's a horse to be reckoned with, although with only 35 points he almost certainly won't be in the Derby unless he squeezes in another prep. My guess is he runs in Week 5 and then takes a go in Baltimore, although he could be pointed to Long Island as well. (Gilmore later pointed out to me via IM that Yorktown is not Triple Crown nominated. Bummer.) Amun (Karl Smythe) was a distant second with an 81 and has been fourth and second in his preps, meaning he'll likely miss the Derby with only 60 points.

* Steward's Cup Juvenile champion Prince Louder (Erin Sanderson) did as expected in improving to 4-for-4 with an easy three-length victory and a 90 in the Grade 2, $150,000 Owlpha Stakes in Kentucky. This is the colt's first figure under 98, which actually probably makes Sanderson happy as he certainly has more in the tank for the Derby, when he'll try to become the first Juvenile winner to win the Derby since Sword in Year 31.

* Blue Bayou (Danny Derby), the Steward's Cup Juvenile runner-up, waltzed to a comfortable three-length victory with a 95 in the Grade 2, $150,000 Battle Cry Stakes in Kentucky. This is his second graded stakes win and third in four starts, with an average figure of 95.8, as he can start making his Derby plans. Spooky Music (Vincent Barratt) ran second with an 83 for his second straight runner-up effort in a Grade 2. With 63 points, we could see him in the Baltimore Crown or Long Island Classic down the line.

* Gladiator (Kris Bobby) made quick and easy work of the Grade 1, $250,000 Sunshine Park Derby in Florida, pulling away to a four-length victory with a 94. The two-time Grade 1 champion is now 5-for-5 with an average figure of 94.8 and will be one of the Derby favorites.

* Thunder Run (Andrew James) dominated the Grade 2, $200,000 Buccaneer Derby in Florida, winning by 2 1/2 lengths with an 89. He also is 5-for-5 lifetime, with a Grade 1 win (the Inglewood Futurity last year) and an average figure of 88.6. He will battle the likes of Prince Louder, Blue Bayou and Gladiator in the Derby.

Week 4 Monday preview

* Derby contender Zero (Cleo Patra) is the headliner in the Grade 2, $200,000 Albuquerque Park Derby over 9 furlongs in New Mexico. The colt is 3-for-4 -- the lone loss by a neck to Thunder Run in last year's Grade 1 Inglewood Futurity -- and is coming off a strong win with a 90 in the Grade 3 Border Derby that made him a Derby lock with 85 points. Canadian Ghost (Lisa Strummer) is coming off a win in the Grade 2 Trial By Summer Sales Graduate Futurity with a 90 to close last year with 48 points and needs a good showing to secure a Derby spot. Crucio (Nena Olson) has to win to improve on his 36 points. He was second by a neck to The Better Person with an 88 in the Grade 3 I'll Have Another Stakes in Week 1, and before that won an NW2 with another 88.

* A gelding and a filly headline a rather unique prep field in the Grade 1, $200,000 Hot Springs Derby over 9 furlongs in Arkansas. Awakened Heart (Dan Gordon), who unfortunately is not Triple Crown nominated (I actually feel for Dan here), nonetheless is 3-for-4 with three straight wins, the last two coming in Grade 3 outings with low-80s figures. Speechless (Danny Derby), the filly, is coming off a win in the Grade 3 Border Oaks with a career-best 90, and needs a good showing here to improve upon 53 points if she wants to take a Derby shot.

[Dan Kauffman]

Week 4 Monday review

* Canadian Ghost (Lisa Strummer) got up in time to edge Zero (Cleo Patra) by a neck with an 88 in a stunning finish to the Grade 2, $200,000 Albuquerque Park Derby in New Mexico. Canadian Ghost, who is not Triple Crown nominated (which is a bummer since he now has a Derby-qualifying 88 points), won his third straight outing in his Year 48 debut, a streak that includes the Grade 2 Trial By Summer Sales Graduate Futurity with a 90 to close last year. Zero, who is Derby-bound with 109 points, posted a rock-solid 87 but came up just short two weeks after winning the Grade 3 Border Derby. Crucio (Nena Olson) settled for third and will not make the Derby.

* Speechless (Danny Derby), a filly, went wire-to-wire in the Grade 1, $200,000 Hot Springs Derby in Arkansas, winning by more than a length with an 86. With 103 points, Derby now has a choice to make between the Derby and the Louisville Oaks. This is the filly's second straight graded stakes victory, coming off the Grade 3 Border Oaks two weeks earlier. Favorite Ending (Mike Springer) once again ran respectably but settled for second for the fourth time in four starts, all with low-80s figures, including the Grade 3 Border Derby two weeks earlier. Awakened Heart (Dan Gordon), a gelding who is not Triple Crown nominated but has 85 points, may have made Gordon's heartbreak a little less wrenching by finishing a less-than-stellar third here, snapping a three-race winning streak that included a pair of Grade 3 titles.

[Dan Kauffman]

Week 4 Friday preview

* Rockets (Eric Nalbone) and Walking Stick (Abe Froman) headline the Grade 1, $250,000 Southern California Derby over 9 furlongs. Rockets is coming off a two-length victory over Walking Stick with a 91 in the Grade 2 Pacific Coast Highway Stakes, and appears very likely to increase his current total of 63 points to a Derby-qualifying number with a win or runner-up effort here. Walking Stick also needs a win or runner-up effort to improve on his 59 points, and also needs to show a little better form to feel good about his chances if he makes the Derby field. He opened his career with a pair of 90s, including a Grade 3 title last year, but was ninth in the Steward's Cup Juvenile before Rockets smoked him last out.

* Two Derby-lock colts by points -- Creeping Suspicion (Jon Xett) and St. Nicholas Day (Ashley Hunt) -- will do battle with talented filly You're the Sky (Danny Derby) in the Grade 1, $250,000 New York, New York Stakes over 9 furlongs. Creeping Suspicion has won two straight, ending last year with a Grade 1 title in the Louisville Jockey Club Stakes with an 87 before taking the Grade 3 Tremendous Stakes in Kentucky with another 87 last out. St. Nicholas Day has enough points, but could use a confidence boost here after running sixth with a 78 in the Steward's Cup Juvenile and second with an 85 in the Grade 3 Rising Star Stakes two weeks ago, beaten by Bluebird Returning. Before that, he won his first three starts, including a pair of Grade 3 outings, with an average figure of 87.3. You're the Sky is coming off her best career win in the Grade 3 Torrid Nights Stakes in Kentucky, which was actually a dead heat with Gloriana as they both posted 92s. She ran fifth in last year's SC Juvenile Fillies.

* Halcyon (Eric Nalbone) will try to lock up a Derby spot in the Grade 2, $250,000 Desert Derby, a 9-furlong test in the Middle East. The colt won a listed stakes race with a 91 last year, and was second with an 84 in the Grade 3 Loki Masterpiece Stakes two weeks ago, edged by a length by Nice Work Pal. He has 66 points and any on-the-board finish would get the job done points-wise, if not confidence-wise. Sudden Sword (Stephen Saratoga) actually leads the field by earnings and has 65 points but is not Triple Crown nominated. He closed last year with a victory in the Grade 2 Nevsehir Stakes in Turkey, posting a career-best 89, but was poor in the Grade 3 Desert 2000 Guineas, a miler, two weeks ago.

* Derby lock Bluebird Returning (Nena Olson) and near-lock (by points) Quickdraw Mcgraw (Dakota Fox) will battle in the Grade 2, $150,000 Keyboard Courage Stakes over a sloppy 9 furlongs in Kentucky. Bluebird Returning has won two straight, both graded stakes, and posted a 90 in the Grade 3 Rising Star Stakes in Louisiana two weeks ago. Quickdraw Mcgraw won his maiden debut with an 88, then was third (with a still-solid 85) in a listed stakes and enters this race having been second three straight times in graded stakes, averaging an 83.3 in that span. On points, his current total of 79 may very well be enough, but I won't be surprised if he races somewhere other than the Derby if he doesn't get a win here.

* No fewer than four Derby hopefuls (two of them locks on points and a third being a near-lock) make the Grade 1, $250,000 Kentucky Blue Stakes over 9 furlongs what will likely be this year's premiere prep. Tarasenko (Izzy Rafferty), the third-place finisher with an 89 in last year's Steward's Cup Juvenile, won the Grade 2 Fountain of Gold Stakes in Florida two weeks ago with an 87 and is a lock with 103 points. Lightly raced Quo Vadimus (Susie Rydell) won his first two starts, the Grade 1 Bubbly Stakes and a Grade 2 to close last year, with an average figure of 89. But he was third with a somewhat troubling 78 in the Grade 3 Tremendous Stakes in Kentucky two weeks ago, and though he has 102 points, a better showing here would be nice. Outer Space (Mike Eaton) is on what is often the Derby bubble point with 75 points, but is coming off the best win of his career, winning the Grade 3 Texan Derby over Quickdraw Mcgraw with an 84 two weeks ago, and has run in the high-80s. Heat of the Moment (Alex Puderbaugh) has won two straight -- including the Grade 3 Are Lions Real Stakes in Kentucky with a 91 on a sloppy track three weeks ago -- and has the talent to improve on his 55 points here and make the Derby. He has averaged a 90 in his three wins.

* Undefeated millionaire superstar filly Ziva (Eric Nalbone, and did I use enough strong adjectives?) is the favorite in the Grade 1, $200,000 New Orleans Derby over 9 furlongs. She's 4-for-4 with an average figure of 95, including a 97 to edge Penguin in last year's Steward's Cup Juvenile Fillies. The top challenger is Ruler Exaggerates (Lucas Davenport), who is not Triple Crown nominated. He won a listed stakes race with an 84 last year, but has been fourth and third with a pair of 78s in his last two starts. As You Bleed (Doug Kidwell) will need a career effort to improve on 47 points and make the Derby. He won his maiden debut with an 87, but has been second in a pair of graded stakes outings since -- though he posted a strong 87 in the Grade 3 Are Lions Real Stakes in Kentucky three weeks ago, losing to Heat of the Moment by less than a length.

[Dan Kauffman]

Week 4 Friday review

* Walking Stick (Abe Froman) paid back Rockets (Eric Nalbone) by an impressive two lengths with a career-best 92 to win the Grade 1, $250,000 Southern California Derby. It reversed the finish of the Grade 2 Pacific Coast Highway Stakes two weeks ago. It's Walking Stick's second graded stakes victory and first Grade 1, and he's off to the Derby with 109 points. Rockets settled for second with an 84 after posting a 91 in the PCH Stakes, and with 93 points he also could run for the roses.

* St. Nicholas Day (Ashley Hunt) refused to be caught down the stretch of the Grade 1, $250,000 New York, New York Stakes, holding off Creeping Suspicion (Jon Xett) and star filly You're the Sky (Danny Derby) by a length with an 89. This is the colt's third graded stakes victory -- including a pair of Grade 3s as a juvenile -- and first Grade 1 title. He has 133 points, but I was told by Hunt that he will skip the Derby due to poor track conditions and will attempt the other TC legs. Creeping Suspicion got second by a nose with an 85 but had a two-race graded stakes winning streak snapped, which included last year's Grade 1 Louisville Jockey Club Stakes. He's still Derby-bound with 127 points. You're the Sky settled for third with an 85 and will race in the Louisville Oaks.

* Sudden Sword (Stephen Saratoga) took control of the Grade 2, $250,000 Desert Derby in the far turn and kicked to a nearly two-length victory with an 87. This is his second graded stakes victory and first Grade 1 title, but unfortunately he is not Triple Crown nominated. Halcyon (Eric Nalbone) was second with an 80, and was runner-up in both his preps. With 90 points, he could take a shot in the Derby, but it wouldn't be shocking to see Nalbone send him elsewhere.

* Bluebird Returning (Nena Olson) crushed the field in the Grade 2, $150,000 Keyboard Courage Stakes in Kentucky by almost three lengths with a 90. He has won three straight graded stakes (two Grade 2s and a Grade 3) and posted 90s in both his prep victories, and will enter the Derby with 133 points. Quickdraw Mcgraw (Dakota Fox) ran second in a fourth straight graded stakes race, has averaged an 80.6 over the last three outings and probably should look somewhere other than the Derby despite having a qualifying 103 points.

* Tarasenko (Izzy Rafferty) surged to the front for a win by more than a length with an 89 in the Grade 1, $250,000 Kentucky Blue Stakes. The colt earned his first Grade 1 title and won both of his preps impressively, as he heads to the Derby with 153 points. Quo Vadimus (Susie Rydell), who won a Grade 1 and a Grade 2 in his two juvenile starts, ran second by a neck with an 84 here, two weeks after taking third with a 78 in the Grade 3 Tremendous Stakes. He's another horse with plenty of points (132) to try the Derby but may want to consider easier opportunities. Heat of the Moment (Alex Puderbaugh) was third with an 83 three weeks after winning the Grade 3 Are Lions Real Stakes. He's entered for the Derby and with 75 points is probably safe from being bumped by a full field. Outer Space (Mike Eaton) was fourth with a 77 two weeks after winning the Grade 3 Texan Derby. He also has 75 points and has to make a Derby decision.

* Star filly Ziva (Eric Nalbone) caught pacesetter Ruler Exaggerates (Lucas Davenport) with a late surge to win the Grade 1, $200,000 New Orleans Derby with an 88. The Steward's Cup Juvenile Fillies champion is now 5-for-5 with an average figure of 93.6, and I see no reason for her not to try the Derby, but we will see what Nalbone decides. Ruler Exaggerates posted an 84 in finishing second. He's not eligible for the Triple Crown and with 70 points and a three-race winless streak he probably wouldn't be in it anyway.

Week 5 Monday preview

* Mad World (Bill Outsilver) and The One Moment (Scott Eiland) will do battle in the Grade 2, $150,000 Chicago Derby over 9 furlongs. Mad World, who went 4-for-4 in milers (three of them graded stakes, including a Grade 1) last year, ran fourth in the Steward's Cup Juvenile before winning the Grade 2 Rebellion Stakes in Arkansas two weeks ago. I think he's being pointed to the Baltimore Crown. The One Moment won a Grade 3 as a juvenile but ran eighth in the SC Juvenile and a distant second to Mad World in the Rebellion Stakes. He stands on 59 points, so a win or a runner-up finish would qualify him for the Derby. If he should pull an upset, it will be interesting to see what Eiland does.

NOTE: I will not be previewing Week 5 Friday races, as they should have no bearing on the Derby field. Instead I will be preparing my second annual MEGA-HUGE-AWESOME Derby preview.