Foal Colt For Sale

[Amanda O'Brien]

Having had another look at my foals for this year, I have decided to part with a couple but not sure how they will be received, so only offering one so far.

<a href='http://www.simhorseracing.com/horse.php?HorseID=35819' target='_blank'>His Worshipfulness</a>

He is on offer at $250,000 but I would be willing to swap or listen to sensible offers.

[Rob Canterbury]

I have a question...

by no means am I trying to start a fight, rather just understand this game a bit more..

My question is simply how in the world does this Horse merit anything close to this price..

Currently the Sire is Standing for $1... In the Sim former Kentucky Derby type Horses have mixed results.. And the current crop of his foals are just average ( though it is a small crop) with no stakes or allowance success whatsoever.

The Colts Dam(Adore you)..raced three times with the best finish 8th.. Yucko!

And His Dam Sire( Tactical Cat) stands for $2500 and is absolutley unproven (one horse of racing age still a maiden)

when gauging prices I kind of use Eric N's rule of twice the Stud Fee ( unless bred with a fabulous Mare -then all bets are off)

If one used this formula this Horse would be worth a whopping $2.

I am writing this to get educated..where is the value in thsi horse? I am still very raw on the breeding side, understanding this would help me greatly..

[Mallory Claire]

I'm going to have to agree here - that colt is heavily overpriced. I gave his dam to you because I couldn't get her to run properly. Peace Rules hasn't shown much of anything. Tough sale, here.

[Amanda O'Brien]

Thanks for the feedback - i wasnt sure what price to put but i am sure he is worth more than $2!!

Like i said any offers or swaps would be considered.

Price now adjusted.

[Rob Canterbury]

You have the right to sell the horse at any price you like... I wasn't saying that yoru horse is worth $2. I was simply saying that by using a formula that I have seen elseware thats what it would be.. ( obviously it is worth more)

My question was why you are high on this horse whether it be 75k or 250k. I was hoping to be educated on why this horse might be considered to have "good breeding" . I am trying to figure out the value of this horse so I can compare it to others...

me,, and this is just MY OPINION, (which is worth next to nothing) I can't imagine paying more than 10k.. I was hoping someone could share with me how this breeding has potential so I could compare it to others..

once again..your horse your price.. The real value is what someone is willing to pay!

Thanks for any insight..

[Eric Nalbone]

Rob, there are a few ways to approach this.

The first is way to view this is, as you stated, that a horse is worth what someone will pay, not a cent more and not a cent less. Whoever is selling the horses needs to decide how much it would take for them to part with the horse. If Amanda would prefer this horse to anything under $250,000 (or the $75,000 the horse is now at), that is perfectly fine. Like you said, her horse, her price.

The second way to approach this is by considering whether you're likely to make back most or all of your purchase price on the horse, preferably turning a profit pretty quickly. I'd argue that the answer is no: like you pointed out, the pedigree is filled with guesswork and horses who didn't necessarily light up the track themselves.

Both of the mare's previous two foals have earned less than $20,000, though the two year old shows some promise, and the three year old has plenty of excuses, namely being run into the ground (workouts weeks 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 to go along with trips from South Africa to Florida to Indiana to Ireland, South Africa again, Kentucky, and finally New Zealand this year). The two year old hasn't been managed much better (workouts 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 plus six races and a trans-Atlantic trip right in the middle of all those works and races), so who knows what they might have been capable of with some intelligent handling?

A little bit of guesswork and extrapolation with what might have been of the two and three year old foals can get you pretty quickly to the conclusion that the mare can probably throw decent allowance horses when sent to the right stallion, and a decent young allowance horse is probably good for about $75,000 in earnings through the long run, but then its up to you to decide whether you think Peace Rules is the right stallion for this mare. He may or may not be a good stallion, and he may or may not be a good stallion for this mare, but there's very little in the way of hard evidence to make a case either in favor or against Peace Rules right now, he simply doesn't have many runners to judge.

As far as my own rule of thumb with 2x the stud fee, thats obviously somewhat arbitrary and dependent on what the stud fee IS. Some stallions are underpriced (Is a $1 stud fee really all that realistic?), some are overpriced (How many people have the means to pay $1,000,000 for a Fumetsu foal, especially if the mare isn't a superstar?), and some are just right. This isn't a critique of stud fees, because I've heard and can definitely support the arguments in favor of $1 stud fees and a $500,000 stud fee. But doubling the stud fee to get a value for the foal clearly isn't going to give you results that most of the SIM will agree with in these cases. Unless you're putting 100+ horses up for sale like I did, when those anomalies work themselves out in the long run and I turn a decent profit on the group as a whole even if some go for more than they're worth and some for less, its generally best to assess things on a case by case basis, factoring in the horse's pedigree, how it compares to other horses available for sale at the moment, etc.

I know this post has been really, really lengthy, but its a very difficult question, and one compounded by the issue of SIMflation. There's some tipping point where instead of spending money and needing to earn money to keep your stable chugging along, the stable keeps chugging along so well that you need to SPEND money to avoid throwing the competitive balance of the game out of whack. Its why, for example, I bid $7,000,000 on a filly that I probably could have gotten for $2,000,000 in the last auction; there's just nothing else I could spend my money on at the time and it was a good way to just take $7,000,000 out of the SIM economy. So an established player might be willing to pay more than a "realistically fair" value for a horse, simply because its intriguing and we have money to burn.

Take home message: your confusion is warranted and the whole situation is really just one big mess. Don't worry if you don't have a great understanding of it, because none of us have a great understanding of how to price horses in the SIM.

[Laura Ferguson]

I'll echo most of what Eric said, but thought I'd raise an additional point:

In addition to what I think the horse can earn on the track, I'll also factor in what I think I can get out of the horse once he/she is no longer racing. This normally applies more to fillies, particularly fillies with top of the line pedigrees (as in the SIM, they are almost priceless if you have a mare like a Mirror or a Sahara Gold). This usually only applies to colts that have a home run pedigree where you think they have a better than normal shot to compete in G1s and ultimately, become a stallion.

With the rest of the colts, whether breeding a colt foal or buying a colt off the sales page, I tend to value them on earning potential, because more often than not, unless the colt hits a home run on the track, there won't be any residual value (particularly with the current glut of SIM stallions, especially when you look at the total number of mares in the SIM). So, in this case, I'd only value this colt on what I think he can earn on the track.

Personally, whatever value I came up with, because he is a foal, and not a horse of racing age or a horse about to turn two, would be discounted slightly, because I would be expected to pay board and the day rate on him for an entire SIM year before I could even begin to see dime one back on this investment. Given a choice between two horses I like equally, and one is a foal, and the other a 2yo, I'd go for the 2yo because I have a better chance of earning back that investment right now.

Supply and demand also factors in. I think there are 110 foals on the sales page right now, of which 2/3 can be bought for less than $75k. So, there's plenty of supply. Whether this guy is better than 2/3 of the foals that are currently on the sales page, I have no idea, because I haven't waded through the individual pages, but when you have a lot of choice, and can find someone comparable for $25k or $50k, I'd buy that horse over the one priced at $75k. If there were only two or three horses, assuming there's a demand for foals, you're more likely to get that price.

Valuing horses is a bit of trial and error, and varies from player to player. It is very much an inexact science.

[Martin Pennington]

Not sure how people can say for sure he's been "worked into the ground" as we've only had one year of workouts, most turf horses work every day - I know things are different in the US, ie. a canter every couple of weeks etc but there are definitely examples in the SIM of horses who've been worked often and run exceptionally well (I've had my best filly beaten by one such horse )

Looking at the various auctions I see people bidding stupid figures on horses who aren't that well bred and by iffy sires.

If Amanda upped Peace Rules fee to 20k you could compare the offspring with those that sell at the various auctions.

[Jolene Danner]

Not sure how people can say for sure he's been "worked into the ground" as we've only had one year of workouts, most turf horses work every day - I know things are different in the US, ie. a canter every couple of weeks etc but there are definitely examples in the SIM of horses who've been worked often and run exceptionally well (I've had my best filly beaten by one such horse )

Looking at the various auctions I see people bidding stupid figures on horses who aren't that well bred and by iffy sires.

If Amanda upped Peace Rules fee to 20k you could compare the offspring with those that sell at the various auctions.

Do they Work everyday or do they go to the track everyday? There is a big difference. Working is breezing, where the horse is asked to run fast and it's usually a timed work. That is what we have in the SIM. Lots of "my" horses go to the track everyday or 5-6 days a week, but most of them are just jogging or galloping, not doing a full work. I think that a horse on the SIM that is racing consistantly doesn't need to to work every week because they are already racing fit. But one coming off a long layoff or making thier first start would benefit from works. Of course none of us have the workout thing figured out quite yet. There is a lot of difference between going to the track and a work. So if you guys actually work your horses everyday that seems a bit extreme. But one thing to remeber when comparing things is that the person who is in charge of the game lives in the US. Not that we do things better, just that that's the perspective coming into the game.

[Martin Pennington]

I appreciate that Jolene (and maybe it's explained somewhere i'm not totally sure). Our horses work at a decent speed ie. 1/2 speed canters each day and then have a proper blow out about 6 or 7 days before the target race.

Two workouts are needed for 2yos before they can race, most of mine have had 3 or 4 by now and I guess we'll find out whether it's too much/too little when they debut.

My main point was how can it be deemed that a horse has been "over worked" without having a set standard established as to how often a horse should be worked?


Martin
ps. love my Acapulco baby

[Laura Ferguson]

There isn't a set standard, part of it is trial and error. But, the horses that work every week haven't responded with good efforts - instead, In Cahoots, for example, broke down after working out several weeks in a row, and several other horses have raced with comments indicating that they are tired, rather than fit. So, to me, that's a good enough indicator that working every week is not the best idea. This also is consistent with the Steward's comments, made in other threads dealing with this topic. In addition, Eric's comment "run into the ground" is about the combination of works and races and shipping, not merely one component.

And, practically speaking, there really can't be a set standard. There are too many other variables - is your horse fragile or sturdy? Was it a hard fought race or an easy win? How far are you shipping? How many weeks between races? How many races, cumulative, have you had this year? Are is the horse a baby, or a seasoned veteran? To me, in my experiments, and in looking at what other people have done, workouts are to help get/keep a horse fit if the horse is coming back from an injury or a longer layoff between races. Distance is also a variable, and depends, to me, on the distance of the race you are going to run in next - a sprint, probably 2 to 3, middle, probably 4 to 5, and longer distances 6 or 7 (with 7 being the max).

[Carolyn Eaton]

I have a question...

by no means am I trying to start a fight, rather just understand this game a bit more..

My question is simply how in the world does this Horse merit anything close to this price..

Currently the Sire is Standing for $1... In the Sim former Kentucky Derby type Horses have mixed results.. And the current crop of his foals are just average ( though it is a small crop) with no stakes or allowance success whatsoever.

The Colts Dam(Adore you)..raced three times with the best finish 8th.. Yucko!

And His Dam Sire( Tactical Cat) stands for $2500 and is absolutley unproven (one horse of racing age still a maiden)

when gauging prices I kind of use Eric N's rule of twice the Stud Fee ( unless bred with a fabulous Mare -then all bets are off)

If one used this formula this Horse would be worth a whopping $2.

I am writing this to get educated..where is the value in thsi horse? I am still very raw on the breeding side, understanding this would help me greatly..

When I'm evaluating a horse to buy, or trying to come up with a price to sell, I start with the foals stud fee and quality (if there are horses of racing age/level of races won, etc), whether it was an "appropriate" mating (dirt-to-dirt, sprinter to sprinter or flexible distance sire, etc), how well the dam did (Maiden/maiden winner/ stakes winner, etc), how well the dam is bred, and the age and gender of the horse, and then the "how much do I like this foal" factor.

I recently sold the yearling Warbler for $50,000

He is by Pico Central, who's stud fee is $2500, with average earnings for all racing aged offspring of $23,000 (majority are 2-3 yo's), basing "value" on average earnings, I gave that $10,000. The dam, Blue Warbler, is a maiden winner at 5f dirt, by More Than Ready a so-so sire, but is a 1/2 sister to Henny Hughes - so dirt sprinter to sprinter breeding with a maiden winning mare of decent breeding-total value of $30,000; the colt is at the end of his yearling year (eating and being boarded) - $2500, and he was an I "like" not a "love" - so 5-10K. So that brought the price tag to $47,500-$52,500 - so 50K. In this case, the dam brought more total value to the horse than the stud. I may have been able to get more, but I felt this was a fair price, and I price my sales accordingly.

How you evaluate your purchases and sales is entirely up to you.

[Martin Pennington]

Every auction there are horses in there who's dam has 5 offspring with total earnings of around $50k and then a stud fee of $15k and they regularly go for 500k this is a similar example.

I don't think the above example would be good value and I don't think this is but there will be horses with a similar profile go for much more.

FWIW I think In Cahoots is the most high profile example of a horse breaking down Laura so I presume that's why you've used her? rather than for anything else.

Looking at it though pickign your spots you could easily make 50k or so back.

[Eric Nalbone]

Not sure how people can say for sure he's been "worked into the ground" as we've only had one year of workouts, most turf horses work every day - I know things are different in the US, ie. a canter every couple of weeks etc but there are definitely examples in the SIM of horses who've been worked often and run exceptionally well (I've had my best filly beaten by one such horse  )

Looking at the various auctions I see people bidding stupid figures on horses who aren't that well bred and by iffy sires.

If Amanda upped Peace Rules fee to 20k you could compare the offspring with those that sell at the various auctions.

Martin,

From my vantage point, I can say this with some confidence simply because I ignored workouts for 95% of my horses without suffering any adverse effects in their performance. My stable is large enough that I also have a relatively large sample to draw conclusions from. Perhaps your best filly losing to a horse who might have been seriously overworked is more a commentary on the relative class of your filly compared to the overworked filly. Without seeing the two horses, its hard to judge.

My horses, especially top-end horses for whom competition is relatively constant and seem to be a good barometer for what you're doing, performed consistently and performed at or above their early season levels through the entirety of the year - without workouts. If workouts were an integral part of keeping horses on a regular racing schedule fit, I don't think my horses would have performed as they did, particularly in Week 16 at the Breeders' Cup where I put five horses on the board. I admit that they might have found some weak fields through the year, and that they didn't NEED to be perfectly fit in many of their races, but horses with the slightest thing going wrong certainly don't perform well in Breeders' Cup races against the best of their division.

To look at other top-level horses, I checked out each of the top 3 finishers in every race on the Arlington Park card in Week 16 - 14 Breeders' Cup races plus a 15th that will be a Breeders' Cup race next year, for a total of 45 horses finishing on the board. I came up with 31 workouts (I think, I might have lost count midway through and decided I was at 18 when I was actually at 13, so 31 might overstate it by a few), an average of .689 works/OTB-finisher for the YEAR.

California, with 3 works, was I believe the most FREQUENTLY worked OTB-finisher in the Breeders' Cup, but only raced five times over the course of the year and didn't leave California until his Week 16 engagement in the Breeders' Cup. Most of these works for Breeders' Cup OTB-finishers seem to bear some sort of logical relationship to their racing schedule, whether that means a short hard tuneup once in Week 15 before the Breeders' Cup, or a longer work in Week 14 to prep for the BC and compensate for a 4-6 week layoff leading into the race, or works earlier in the year when the gap between races was a little bit longer than the horse had otherwise been accustomed to.

Finally, I'd urge you to pay more attention to what I'm saying, since what I said was not what your read: As Laura pointed out, I said the horses have been run into the ground, not worked into the ground. I pointed out that workouts were once component of what I saw to be factors that might have contributed to an otherwise talented horse severely underperforming. Added to those workouts are brutal shipping schedules, particularly for the three year old, and perhaps a few too many races for the two year old. (To use the OTB-finishers at Arlington park in Week 16 as our "gold standard" again, two year olds finishing on the board totaled 80 starts [including the BC/Juvenile Fillies Sprint] from 18 starters, an average of 4.4 starts/runner, added to the fact that only three of these horses were shipped across continents over the course of the year).

I'll be the first to admit that I'm not sure what an "optimum approach" to workouts consists of. But I'm pretty sure what I a BAD approach to workouts consists of, and thats a much easier thing to discern. Think about human athletes: anybody whose ever engaged in any sort of serious athletic training is very familiar with the notion of training cycles and the idea that there's an optimum balance of strenuous (AT) activity, moderate (aerobic) activity, and rest (no activity). Just because someone is a 400m sprinter doesn't mean that their training should consist of simply going out and running 400m, 200m, and 100m dashes over and over and over and over: you'll run your body into the ground and ultimately injure yourself. Apply that same basic logic to the SIM: there's an optimum balance of rest and activity, influenced by travel and the horse's recent history. Constant activity with no rest ISN'T optimum, and I think that in retrospect, 98% of the SIM will agree with me and the remaining 2% won't win many races.

[Martin Pennington]

I like to think my girl still has the magic Eric, the other horse has gone 5/5 at 2 mind soooooooooooooooooo it could be