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The Year 34 Derby Dozen
Original article written by Paul Heinrich posted 11 years 1 week agoThere's nothing like a cold January wind to remind us why we put up with winter - The Triple Crown Trail is about to begin! As we prepare for Year 34, here's a look at a few of the hopefuls who will be attempting to make a splash in the next few weeks, leading up to week 6, and the 34th running of the Louisville Derby.
Without any further ado, your pre-season edition of the Year 34 Derby Dozen:
1. Clash of Kings – Just Victory x Battle the Best (California). The undefeated Steward’s Cup Juvenile winner has to top this list, until he missteps. At the time of this edition, Hall of Fame trainer Eric Nalbone has not yet publicly set a prep schedule. The most likely step for him would appear to be the Grade 3 Tremendous Stakes run week 2 in Kentucky, or if Nalbone favors the more conservative route, the Grade 3 Oyster Bay stakes in New York week 3. There will be no worry about qualifying points, so the New York route may be the favored approach. This horse appears to want to be at or near the pace, and coming from a speedy sire with stamina questions (Just Victory), this horse may be most dangerous in the Baltimore Crown.
2. Mirror Images – Sun Raider x Such Great Heights (Loki Dynasty). Trainer Brandon McNulty opted for a more conservative juvenile campaign, eschewing the Steward’s Cup for extra time off following the conquest of the prestigious Week 14 Bubbly Stakes (Grade 1). He’ll start the year in Florida in the Grade 3 End Result Stakes, likely pointed toward the Week 3 Sunshine Derby, or perhaps the week 4 (Monday) Hot Springs Derby. He has not run flashy speed figures yet, but has done what he’s needed to do. As the full brother to Triple Crown winner Maelstrom, this horse would be near the top of this list even as a maiden.
3. Rivendell – Stay Awake x Gold Cup (Change the Past). Hall of Fame trainer Laura Ferguson is always a factor in this race, and this year she will have the Louisville Jockey Club (Grade 2) winner leading her charge. No stamina concerns here; the primary question is going to be whether this is a Derby horse, or a Midsummer horse. Like Mirror Images, this horse has not yet popped the eye-opening speed figure, but has done nothing wrong. Ferguson is notorious for waiting until the fields emerge to make her plans known, but conventional wisdom might put this well-rested and little tested horse in the week 2 Tremendous Stakes, using the week 4 Kentucky Blue (Grade 1) as the final stepping stone, the 2 prep strategy utilized to get a little seasoning into this horse. Perhaps the more likely scenario points to the week 3 Battle Cry Stakes (Grade 2), if Ferguson decides to take it easy.
4. Ball of Fire – Flames x Worth Millions (East). This horse will have few stamina concerns, hailing from Derby winning and Derby winner producing star sire Flames, out of Worth Millions, who happens to be a half-sister to Derby winning filly, High Flyer. Trainer Scott Eiland will use the Tremendous Stakes to springboard forward after an impressive win in the Two Year Old Marathon (Grade 2). Coupled with his stamina-infused pedigree, his consistently high (but not too high) speed figures have to have Eiland excited about his prospects in Louisville, as long as he can avoid a speed duel in the final prep.
5. All the Same Faith – Same x Faith Ofthe Fallen (Literature). Trainer Lee Cara brings this somewhat surprising horse into the fray of the Triple Crown Trail primarily off a win in the early juvenile route Don’t Hesitate Stakes (Grade 3). The routing back class of this horses race history would be questionable, if not for his last outing – a solid performance placing behind aforementioned Clash of Kings in the Steward’s Cup Juvenile. This horse has wintered in Maryland, and will be considering the same races Clash of Kings for his prep schedule. This horse hasn’t really done anything wrong, but from a pedigree standpoint (dam was an occasionally solid though inconsistent claimer), I’d expect this one to move down, rather than up this list.
6. Father Christmas – Father Ralph x Fashion is Pain (Change the Past). Trainer Nena Olson joins the Triple Crown Party this year with another upstart from what appears at first glance to be a modest female family. Though the dam was only a maiden winner in 9 tries, she is a half sister to twice millionaire and Steward’s Cup Distaff champion It Is What It Is, so it’s a mistake to dismiss this one on pedigree. Olson took advantage of a rich new week 16 (Monday) Grade 2 race in Oklahoma, and found a relatively soft spot to “springboard”. He’ll start out the year in the Lone Star State in the Texan Derby (Grade 3); look for an appearance in Louisiana for the New Orleans Derby (Grade 1 this year), or an early trip to Kentucky for the Kentucky Blue (Grade 1) week 4.
7. Quidditch – Magician x Wise to the Future (Loki Dynasty). Hall of Fame trainer Ali Weasley has been ultra conservative with this budding superstar so far. Only 2 races under his belt, he took down the field in the Inglewood Futurity (Grade 1) in week 15 as a maiden winner. A half to Just Victory, this one could have some of the same distance concerns, but it will be hard to say until he’s had a chance to show his stuff. The only other concern here from a derby standpoint will be foundation, with just two juvenile races. His class will not be in doubt. Look for him to reappear with a week 2 tightener, pointing toward the Southern California Derby (Grade 1) week 4. If he doesn’t win the Derby, this could be a perfect candidate to contend for the Canadian Triple Crown in the fall. Strong candidate to move up this list.
8. Firefly – Sun Raider x Amber (Awake As I Am). Hall of Fame trainer Susie Rydell finally brings one of the most eagerly anticipated colts to the main stage of the Triple Crown Trail. Like another regally bred and lightly raced colt, Quidditch, Firefly has only a maiden win and a big-dollar juvenile score – the Louisiana Jackpot (Grade 2) - to his name, and will have some work to do to catch up to the top of the class in terms of foundation. If anyone has the pedigree to do it, this is that horse. He’s spent all winter so far at the racetrack, indicating perhaps that he intends to stay in Louisiana, in the Rising Star Stakes (Grade 3), and the week 4 New Orleans Derby (Grade 1 this year).
9. Joust – Just Victory x A King’s Ransom (Saga). Notable turf trainer Kevin Hern is getting his feet wet in the Triple Crown Trail for the second year in a row, this time with a homebred star son of Just Victory. The same stamina concerns discussed with Clash of Kings apply to this horse, though as a closer it may not be a stretch to think this horse can compete in a 10 furlong race if he gets the benefit of a tight speed duel up front. This position is earned on the strength of a very classy score in the Thriller Stakes (Grade 3), where he stuck his neck out in front of aforementioned Ball of Fire. Another Maryland stabler, look for this one to get two preps in, then possibly go straight to Baltimore, if Hern decides he doesn’t want to risk another up the track finish in the Derby.
10. Targaryen – Triumph x Chutai (Boise). Paul Heinrich returns to the Triple Crown Trail with this son of Triumph, out of a Steward’s Cup Ladies Route winner. He scored an impressive win in the Flames Stakes (Grade 3) week 14, and ran back 2 weeks later finishing a half-length behind Ball of Fire in the Two Year Old Marathon. The speed figures are impressive, but this one is another front runner who may have to contend with a very hot pace up front. Look for him to sit out an extra long winter recovering from those two efforts, and perhaps face off with Mirror Images in the Sunshine Derby (Grade 1) week 3.
11. Point of Pride – East x Strong and Silent (Live Strong). Ricky Bobby helped this horse rebound from what could have been a campaign-killing 6th place in the always-hot Thriller Stakes (Grade 3) with an impressive showing in one of the top non-Steward’s Cup juvenile finales, the Empire Maker Stakes (Grade 2). This horse also likes to be near the lead, and like Clash of Kings, may have some stamina concerns due to his 9-furlong favoring East x Live Strong pedigree. Look for him to point toward Oyster Bay Stakes (Grade 3) or target the week 4 New York, New York stakes as a final run prior to the Derby.
12. Eager – Just Victory x Hug the Turns (Mr. Prospector). Rob Canterbury surely had the Triple Crown Trail in mind when purchasing this son of a Mr. Prospector x Secretariat mare for 1.5 million. After breaking maiden in South America, and a stakes-debut win in an Adolescent Acres listed stakes race, Eager trekked on to northern Canada for the Canadian Juvenile (Grade 2). He’ll get a well deserved break and resurface in Texas to face off with Father Christmas in the Texan Derby (Grade 2). The back class is not yet established on this one, as he’s yet to be tested against Triple Crown caliber competition, but that should change after week 2.
The next dozen: Bow and Arrow, Paramount, Lying, It Is I, Dynamite, Garden, Stranger, Flye, Just Ludicrous, Ollivander, Din, Pantheon.
Don’t discount: Kirkwood, Riddle, Spruce Goose, Smoldering, Thrash Unreal, Firebreathing Fist, Louisville, Where’s the Fire.
Maidens to watch: Letter From No One, Vigor, Desert Nightlife (not currently nominated), Fly Skyer, Eastern Hope.