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There is no shortage of compelling storylines waiting to be played out in the Year 34 Louisville Derby. At the time of this writing, 16 horses are entered, with another (Ball of Fire) known to be an intended entry. That leaves 3 spots vacant, with a number of surprising defections from the Derby Trail in the past 2 weeks.
The 3 most glaring absences are likely Quidditch, Rivendell, and Just Ludicrous. As of this writing, it is not out of the question that Quidditch or Just Ludicrous sneak into Louisville, though both are currently stabled in Baltimore. Rivendell won the Puerto Rican Derby earlier this week, essentially taking him off the Triple Crown Trail – though he could conceivably show up in the Long Island Classic.
We’ll start the review of the current field with the 2 long-shots, horses who have not yet appeared on the radar of the Derby Dozen. Bedlam Fighter is by Triple Crown winner Maelstrom, out of TBS bred and owned Fear Fighter (Fighter Jet). He enters the Derby as an allowance winner, and stakes-placed at a mile. The pedigree is hopeful, but the form is not there. His purpose in the race will be to push the pace, but will almost certainly fall well-behind by the third call. Likewise, Run the Floor has a Triple Crown winning sire (this time Awake As I Am), and little in the way of racetrack accomplishments to indicate a threat in this race. He finished nearly 4 lengths behind the winner of the Southern California Derby (G1), and unlike Bedlam Fighter, probably won’t even see daylight coming out of the gate. Odds on this pair would likely be 50-1.
The remaining 15 entries have been at least mentioned (if not profiled) in a previous edition of the Derby Dozen. For the purposes of this review, we’ll divide them into 4 categories – 3 co-favorites, 4 strong plays, 4 dark horses, and 4 outsiders.
Let’s start with the group of outsiders, including All the Same Faith, Loki Regard, Smoldering, and Worthy of Crowns. Think 30 to 50-1 odds for this quartet. All of them would need a combination of ideal pace scenario, racing luck, and a significant step up in class in order to wear the roses. All the Same Faith is a deep closer, but has not yet run the high speed figure you’d like to see in the history of a Derby horse. Likewise, Worthy of Crowns has not yet cracked into the 80s on a speed figure, and has the added disadvantage of shipping in from Dubai after a week 4 win. Smoldering has posted the excellent speed figures (once in the maiden win, once in a G3 loss), but will come into the Derby on shorter rest, having run in the week 5 (Monday) Chicago Derby. That race was somewhat tight, but not excessively fast, so he may have something left to challenge here. Loki Regard comes in as a promising maiden winner, losing to many top-flight horses in tough races with high speed figures; but he’s still a maiden-winner. All of these horses would seemingly need the race to fall apart up front to have any hope of victory; and though that’s not an entirely impossible scenario, it's still easy to see a more highly regarded horse snatching it up.
In the next group of 4, we have our dark horses, including It Is I, Letter From No One, Paramount, and Stranger. These are horses you might find in the 15 to 30-1 range. They’ll have some backers, but they are under the radar coming into the Derby. You might also think of these as “wise guy” picks. It Is I and Paramount are obviously talented horses, who, like Loki Regard, have run high speed figures… in losses. Paramount has a stakes win, but it was an early juvenile stakes race run at a mile. It Is I has won a NW2, but was much more impressive in challenging Firefly 3 races in a row. Letter From No One waited until this season to break maiden, but had a pair of stakes placings prior to that, and followed the maiden win with a G3 score, though that was over 3 weeks ago. Stranger is the outlier in this group, as a multiple stakes winner; however, those stakes wins have come off the Triple Crown Trail, in Puerto Rico and Panama. He has one eye-opening performance in the George Washington stakes, but really hasn’t been challenged on a stakes level.
We’ll call the 3rd group “Strong Plays”, since they’ll probably receive a little more attention than the aforementioned groups, but still likely sit outside the circle of “Favorite”. This group will feature In My Blood, Mirror Images, Riddle, and Targaryen, and they’ll likely go off at odds between 6 and 15 to 1. In My Blood and Mirror Images derive most of their attention from pedigree, with half-siblings like East, West, Midwest, Forward, and Yes; and in Mirror Images' case, full-siblings Maelstrom and Crystal Quest. As has been discussed in the Derby Dozen, In My Blood has yet to put it all together in a dominating performance; Mirror Images' dominating performance came 2 weeks ahead of the Derby. Neither situation is ideal when looking for a horse to back in the Derby, but in both cases, pedigree suggests the class is there to win this race.
Targaryen and Riddle have met before, finishing 1st and 3rd, respectively, in the Flames Stakes, back in week 14 of Year 33. That particular race is among the fastest of all stakes races run by this crop so far, requiring a low 90s speed figure just to hit the board. Both horses have had long breaks since, and have gone on to stamp their Derby tickets with Grade 1 wins this year, Riddle besting Quidditch out west, and Targaryen holding off Kanan Dume in Hot Springs.
This brings us to the trio of co-favorites. I would expect these three to get the most support on the morning line, and for all 3 to go off at sim-equivalent odds better than 6 to 1. This group includes the 2 undefeated horses in the field, Clash of Kings and Firefly, and the late-shipping Ball of Fire. As of this writing, Ball of Fire is still recuperating from a supreme effort in the Kentucky Blue Stakes (G1). Also on his resume, impressive wins over Smoldering in the Tremendous Stakes (G3), and Targaryen in the 2 Year Old Marathon (G2). The big question will be, has he recovered? He won 3 races in 5 weeks, at speed figures between mid 80s and low 90s. Winning the Derby on top of all that, 2 weeks later, is a lot to ask of this horse.
Clash of Kings comes in as a default co-favorite at least, as the undefeated Stewards Cup Juvenile winner, and Simmy-winning juvenile. Of course, all that foundation doesn’t mean anything if he can’t get the Derby distance, which is going to be the primary knock on all offspring of Just Victory until one wins a big race at the classic distance. Though his Derby prep was slower than normal, this was probably necessary, as his prior two efforts in the Stewards Cup and the Persevere Stakes (G3) before that required mid-90s speed figures to win. Speed to burn, and certainly has the talent to win the race, if the stamina is there.
In the mind of this author, Firefly has become the horse to beat. He’s also undefeated, beating Paramount, It Is I, and Loki Regard, and only once really being driven to the finish, by Paramount in the Sunshine Derby (G1). His resume sports a nice combination of high speed figures, classy competition, and a solid 3 week rest after his last race, which was strenuous, but not so much to be a huge concern 3 weeks later. If you’re looking for a reason to stay away from him, you probably have to dig in to his shipping record – his farm rest has been less-than-optimal so far. However, he comes into the Derby after 12 full days at a local farm, and should be vetting just fine.
While handicapping a large, talented field is always a minefield, and due to obvious personal bias, this author’s emotional call-in pick (Targaryen) is different from the prediction here... the best pick from this section has stalking Firefly running down front-runner Targaryen in the stretch, with Riddle closing for 3rd, Ball of Fire and Stranger holding on for a piece of the purse.