Steward’s Cup Juvy. Vs. Louisville Derby: Why the Disconnect

Original article written by Jack Meyer posted 9 years 0 weeks ago

The single biggest race for 2 year old dirt routers in the Thoroughbred ranks is the Steward’s Cup Juvenile. You’d think that every owner would have their prized router primed and ready for the richest 2 year old race in the SIM universe. You would think every owner would use the Juvenile as a goal to get their baby geared up for the run for the roses in Week 6 in the Louisville Derby, you’d think right? Wrong, there is a certain disconnect between the SIM’s richest 2 year old route race, and the SIM’s most prestigious and exciting sub 2 minutes race, and we’re here to learn the history and the story as to why these two races, meant for the same goal, are so disconnected.


JUVENILES AND DERBIES OF THE PAST

As I look back in SIM history, I noticed that the combination of a Steward’s Cup Juvenile win along with a Louisville Derby win has occurred just 4 times, this ratio is not a good one for the argument of the two being a good match for the ultimate goal. I have to weigh in on all the possible reasons, the Juvenile is a 1 1/16th mile race while the Derby in 1 ¼ miles, some routers top out in between that distance while some want longer. Some horses are late bloomers making it a wise choice to go easier routes until the horse is developed enough to try the big boys in the big races, while some chose to try multiple surfaces resulting in better breeding options for the future.

I haven’t been in the SIM long enough to grasp the entire history behind the two races, so I will try and go with the ones I do know. I’m going to take a look at some examples of those who were expecting to go that route, but came up short, as well as those who were successful in the completion of the challenge.

End Result never ran as a 3 year old and he won the Year 15 Juvenile, his sire Unheard Of only ran the 1 ¼ distance twice with a 2nd and a 6th, so I’d say End Results preference would stop right around 1 1/8th. Maybe he could have gotten the distance at one point, but I don’t think he would have been able to throw down with the best of his generation in the best race in the SIM.

King Of Jesters won the Juvenile in Year 18, and took his undefeated streak into the Derby the following year, his opponent Monet skipped the Juvenile running in a few smaller races likely because he was a late bloomer. King Of Jesters wound up running 2nd in the Derby with Monet winning, also winning the Long Island Classic, King Of Jesters took the middle jewel, the Baltimore Crown, but he missed out on the Derby win. As I look at them both, I see Monet cherished the longer distances, he ran several more races at 1 ¼ while King of Jesters past Performances showed he preferred 1 1/8th to 1 ¼ even though he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup. I see another example of a horse bred more for the lighter router races in King of Jesters compared to a horse that relished the distance in Monet.

Arms Race took the Juvenile in Year 21, looking at his pedigree, his sire Mighty Big could get the distance of 1 ¼, as evidence by his big win in the Derby, but actually preferred a 1 1/8th and 1 1/16th distances, so it wasn’t hard to figure out why Arms Race didn’t care for the Derby as much as he would a little shorter .You have to remember, many milers can get 1 1/16th, and many routers can’t stand anything less than 1 1/8th, that’s a big gap to fill with the amount of runners that the SIM see’s each year in the Miler and Route divisions. These horses can cross over in an attempt to steal a big race like the Juvenile with no intent on even trying the Derby because of the horse’s limitations.

Awake As I Am won the Juvenile the very next year on his way to capturing the Triple Crown, he is sired by Loki Dynasty whose bloodlines run all the way back to Conduit, so Awake As I Am was born to be a freak. I firmly believe that some horses are just destined to shine, Conduit, Priceless Forever, You Are I Am, Awake As I Am, all of these horses were just supposed to be great, and no matter what distance they tried they would prevail. Awake As I Am is one of just 5 triple Crown winners which already sets him apart from his dad and his granddad, he was bred for the distance, and was actually the one from that sire line to stay the course, which was to win the TC.

The Year 24 Juvenile was won by Beyond The Stars who was sired by Sun Raider, those who know Sun Raider know he has produced runners who can get 1 ¼, so why did his son fail in the Derby that next year? Well, first and foremost, he ran against Flames who turned out to be a route specialist winning many more races at 1 ¼ and beyond, he also was pitted against a very tough crop with the likes of West, Asleep As I Am, and War Daddy. As I delved deeper into Beyond the Stars, he didn’t want anything to do with any distance over 1 1/8th, the trick to this is finding this out before the Triple Crown Trail begins, this was a problem here because Beyond’s pedigree shows 1 ¼ wasn’t too much, it just fell that way in the end.

Year 27 saw Just Victory win the Steward’s Cup Juvenile in fine fashion, that next year he threw a dud in the Derby finishing 10th making the curse even more apparent. Just Victory is sired by Then, who’s sire was End Result, we discussed how much End Result loved the longer distances earlier, he hated it, why would we expect Just Victory to be any different. Just Victory had a hellacious crop to deal with too, he had Whitney, Persevere, Zulu Dancer, Triumph, Battlehorse, and Sun In The Stars, he just had no mercy when he was foaled. I really don’t think a softer crop would have made any difference since his sire line showed how much he would prefer 1 1/8th or shorter, and his time in the shed proved that point with many of his finer offspring preferring the miler to shorter route distances.

Year 30, the year we saw Maelstrom take the Triple Crown, the last horse to do so, but where was for the Steward’s Cup Juvenile, which was won by Institutionalized? Institutionalized was all for the shorter distances, his 13th place finish in the Derby showed his owner he wanted nothing to do with it, and he was placed back at 1 1/8th or shorter from then on. Maelstrom on the other hand was sired by Sun Raider, whose son Beyond The Stars just won the Juvenile 6 years prior, so we know he can flourish there as well, why on God’s green earth did the future Triple Crown winner skip the Juvenile, I want to know too, but all we can do is speculate. The point that Beyond the Stars failed so badly just a few years before may have played a factor, I don’t see a single reason why so I’m just searching for a reason, he should have been there.

Year 30, the year of Sword, the last one to win both the Juvenile and the Derby. Sword was sired by War Daddy, who could get 1 ¼ but didn’t prefer it one bit, so Sword defied the odds there when he scored in the Juvy and the Derby that next year. The reasoning behind it, if there is one, could be that the next best horse in that crop was Spartan, another son of War Daddy who has actually sired almost as many All-Weather winners as dirt winners bringing up the question as to whether he was more All-Weather. You can chalk it up as a weaker crop, but Akon loved the longer distances and wound up 3rd in the Derby. Home Run Derby won at 2 miles and 1 ½ miles, and is sired End Result’s sire Then, whom throws short routers as well, so Home Run Derby could have won both races on paper.

Night Fury won the Juvenile in Year 31 and continued on course competing in all three Triple Crown races; his best placing was 2nd in the Crown which is notorious for being the shorter routers dream in the Triple Crown. Night Fury is sired by Boise who tops out at 1 1/8th, he wanted nothing to do with the 1 ¼ distances, but Night Fury was successful to a point at 1 ¼ winning once and placing several more times. The horse that won the Derby that year, San Diego Padre, was bred for the longer distances, and the other runners in the Derby like Messiah and Wind Against Fire were beasts on and off the track, so the crop was a stellar one which added to the difficulty.

I mention Year 32 because it is a complete head-scratcher to me, this is the year of Harry Potter, Voldemort, and Forward just to name a few. This is the year that Eh Hee won the Juvenile, while he is a very nice horse, his 1 1/16th preference shows just how wide open of a gap that the Juvenile and Derby have as far as horses able to compete at top level. With the likes of Harry Potter, Voldemort, and Forward, all of which are route superstars, how on earth did Harry Potter, the only one that tried both races, not win that race? He was close, finished 2nd with a 91 Speed Figure, but this legendary horse should have had nothing in front of him to stop him, but it did. I’ll delve more into this one at the end of this rant, but for now, I’ll leave it at utter shock as the way I feel about this one.

In the Clash Of Kings vs. Ball Of Fire year, Clash of Kings won the Juvenile while Ball of Fire took the Derby. The research I did led me to the reasoning as Clash is sired by Just Victory, we know how he did in his Triple Crown run, while Ball of Fire is sired by Flames who throws routers all the time, this one was open and shut in its reasoning.

In the Year 34/35 Juvenile and Derby, Godzuki took the Juvenile while Doc Halladay took the Derby. Godzuki is sired by Highly Regarded, a very well-known sire for throwing long distance routers, while Doc Halladay is sired by War Daddy who tends to stick more with the mid route distances of 1 1/8th, so this should have been actually flip-flopped with the Doc winning the Juvenile and Godzuki taking the Derby, on paper at least. I look at this one closer and I see that Godzuki was an early bloomer; his talent was at its peak when he won the Juvenile while the Doc and the others in the race matured a little later resulting in better results on the track. This crop was a tough one also, Ice And Fire, Knights, Bazinga, Half Blood Prince, Whitespire, and Word were among the group in question, it was a very deep crop.

In Year 35/36, Extraordinary took the Juvenile while Bronze Horseman took the Derby. Extraordinary is sired by Messiah, who has thrown his fair share of long routers, while Bronze Horseman is sired by Maelstrom, who also throws routers and was a long route specialist as well. Both horses look to be stretching their abilities at 1 ¼, but Bronze Horseman looks to be the one that could get that distance easier. The one horse that was better than all of them didn’t make the Juvenile because he was a long distance route specialist, With Kind Regards, and Bronze Horseman took a lot of heat for not competing against him in the Long Island Classic, so there was quite a bit of story behind this one. This crop was extremely deep as well, aside from the ones mentioned already, you had Imagine Dragons, Easy on The Eyes, Achieve Your Ends, and Sensational, lots of nice horses there which could explain the lack of dominance from one party.

The Year 36/37 Juvenile and Derby saw You Are I Am take the Juvenile and Are Lions Real take the Derby. This year will likely go down as one of the best years in SIM history, You Are I Am has been dubbed by many as one of the greatest of all time, and he was in the midst of one of the best crops to come along in quite some time. You Are I Am is sired by Awake As I Am, so there is no denying he could run at whatever distance he was asked, he won at 2 miles, 1 ½, 1 ¼, and 1 1/16th, he could do it all. Are Lions Real is sired by Maelstrom, another solid route producing horse that is legendary, so he too could run in whatever asked of him, on paper at least. So, if a horse dubbed one of the greatest of all time didn’t win all the best races, why? I think it is the point I made earlier in this paragraph, there was so much talent in this crop that if you had a bad day, you were going to lose. If you look at who was in these two superstar’s crop, you’d understand why, we had Keyboard Courage, Anointed, Horcrux, Owlpha, Hogwarts, The Art Of Racing, and Vanquish, many of these horses are retired now and standing stud, they have outstanding fees because they were that good. The evidence is in the way the Triple Crown played out, a different horse won each leg which either says the crop was weak or solid, I’d say solid.

Year 37/38 saw Manhattan take the Juvenile with Grant stealing the show in the Derby. Manhattan is bred to run forever, he is sired by Highly Regarded, and truly does cherish the long distances. I remember this year’s Juvenile very well, it attracted a lot of second tier runners like Ender and Parker, no disrespect, instead of the elite like Windseeker, Fugazi, and Grant, they were very obvious subtractions from the Juvenile, and it was a hot topic at the time. As talented as Manhattan is, it was very hard to see him losing the Juvenile without something tragic happening; the result was him winning with his lowest Speed Figure to that race. The Derby on the other hand saw all of the best attend, Grant won it in a slight surprise, but he wasn’t a complete shocker, his pedigree says he likes that distance, and the presence of Newsroom, Parzival, and the others mentioned before was a bigger challenge for Manhattan, who prefers long races, and he finished a beaten 6th. This is a year where the Juvenile was tainted because most of the highly sought after runners skipped it for one reason or another, and it showed very badly here.

The Year 38/39 Juvenile and Derby saw Harkness take the Juvenile and Castle Keep take the Derby. The talk of this one was the fact that Harkness skipped the Derby completely in favor of the shorter Baltimore Crown, he is sired by Just Victory, we’ve discussed that monster enough, we know the reasoning behind it, but was it right? Castle Keep doesn’t scream 1 ¼ and longer either, he got the distance fine, but struggled in the Classic at 1 ½, that traces back to War Daddy, who didn’t care for those longer distances. Honest Talk took the Classic, and his pedigree explains why, Highly Regarded, enough said, he should have won. The wildcard in all this is Mint, he just missed in the Derby, skipped both the Crown and the Classic, and is back to battle Castle Keep in the Midsummer Classic, but this time there is no Honest Talk, it’s all mixed up, a little clarity please?



FINAL THOUGHTS ON THIS SECTION

I told you I was going to get back to it, Harry Potter losing the Juvenile against that group was a travesty, I’m not saying those others were bad horses, you have to be good to win that race, but it’s that race to me that makes this debate legit. Eh Hee is a mid-router to miler, and that race fit his abilities, while Harry Potter was the beast that wound up failing because of circumstances that he couldn’t fix. I think this is the reason you saw zero opposition against Manhattan a couple of years ago, owners don’t want to have their prized horses caught up in something that they can’t control. We saw it with Harkness, he was supposed to do well in the Juvenile, and skipped the Derby because he wasn’t supposed to, on paper, was he wrong, maybe, but if you look at his pedigree you can see why he skipped it.


JUVENILE AND DERBY FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS

Now it’s time to look at what we will see in the future with this debate. We all witnessed the monumental races from Proverb, Through The Ghost, Coronation, and Doctor, will we see all, if any, in the Steward’s Cup Juvenile in week 16, or will we have to wait until week 6 of next year? Let’s look at each one individually and try to get an idea.

Proverb scored a win earning the highest speed figure for a non-chaser that I’ve seen in my time in the SIM, a 100, his win was a huge topic in the SIM that Friday night, and remains that way now. Since he is sired by Highly Regarded who is known to throw long routers, will we see this beast in the Juvenile, or will something come up where he will choose somewhere else to go because of unforeseen circumstances. Pedigree says he should like 1 1/16th, but is that something he prefers?

Through the Ghost is sired by Rambling, who was sired by the great Flames, he is known to sprout offspring who like 1 ¼, and are successful at 1 1/16th, but at what lengths will his connections go to ensure they don’t hurt his future business, at stud, by placing him in a race where he may not be developed enough to beat the runners that may show up.

Coronation is another son of Highly Regarded, so the same goes for him that goes for Proverb, what chances will his connections take with him when his bigger goal is the Triple Crown. He is bred to do everything and anything, but racing has circumstances you can’t control, are they willing to test them?

Doctor is sired by Harry Potter, we know his story from earlier, so we won’t go in to that. He is bred to get the short and long distances like his daddy was, but his daddy didn’t get it when he should have, will the same fate befall this guy if he runs in the Juvenile?



FINAL THOUGHTS OVERALL

I don’t fault owners who know their horses will have trouble in certain races, I do it myself, If I think my horse can’t win, I don’t put it in there just to have him there because he’s supposed to be there, this game is about winning after all right? I was shocked when no one showed up with Manhattan, and Harkness skipped town for the Derby, I was much more upset with the former than the latter since Harkness’ pedigree isn’t kind to 1 ¼, but I can live with both decisions. Did it take away some of what could have been, possibly, it made for great conversation though.

The thought of maybe changing the Juvenile distance to 1 1/8th is a popular one when it comes to fixing what many perceive as being broken, this way it would weed out the short routers and milers that specialize at those distances alone giving way to the true routers to take back what is theirs. I personally don’t think this will change very much, the reasoning is that you will still have horses that prefer 1 1/8th to the Derby distance of 1 ¼, then there will be a discussion about what to do about that.

This debate to me comes down to one thing, just like the Triple Crown, there is a reason why this has only been done 4 times, you have to be a super horse in order to be the best. Just as the 1 ¼ distance of the Derby and the 1 ½ distance of the Classic test the stamina of the 3YO’s, the 1 1/16th distance test the 2YO’s in a different way, it makes them take on all comers that span all divisions since miler/mid types have been known to take one from time to time. Late bloomers are just that, late bloomers, they may not run their best as a 2YO, but be dominate as a 3YO, there are many factors that go in to how these races turn out. If you begin to change these prestigious races, what’s to stop change coming for other races, the Derby, Long Island Classic, Steward’s Cup Classic, where does it end? It opens up a whole can of worms that is likely better left alone.

I think this year’s Juvenile will have a couple of those rising stars in there along with a few others that may be coming late, and I think next year’s Derby will be a spectacular display of what makes the SIM so great. Those races aren’t supposed to be easy to win, if they were, there would be no excitement since we’d see it every year, there would be no debating, no reason to ask why Harkness skipped the Derby, why You Are I Am didn’t run in the latter two legs of the Triple Crown, why Harry Potter had the race he was supposed to win slip between his hooves, that to me isn’t fun, is it to you?

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