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Being a Discriminating Buyer - Tips for Newbies

Original article written by Regina Moore posted 9 years 2 weeks ago

Certainly, one of the joys of being a newbie is the thrill of getting on SIM each day and being able to choose from thousands of horses to buy. These horses are on the new players sales list, the general sales list, at auctions, and in claiming races. Many of the prices are quite cheap. Every horse viewed can seem like a world of possibilities that the new player is eager to tap into. So, buying often becomes an obsession for many new players – an obsession that tends to stay with them for many game years after their newbie status is behind them.

When a player is new, and has to watch their spending, it's important that they focus on purchases that can be profitable. This article focuses on how to avoid buying horses that are unlikely to earn back their purchase price, let alone make a profit, because they aren’t as talented as they appear to be, at first glance.

I well remember that, within my first two days in SIM, I spent $30,000 to buy a 4yo horse, and that horse ended up being a Big Mistake, with only $13,000 in earnings under my ownership. Within a year, I could look back and point to literally a dozen mistakes I made with that single purchase. Below are situations the newbie should consider, if they don't want to spend money on horses that are unlikely to earn it back.


HORSES TO AVOID
Recent Poor Finishes – If you bet races in real life, you’re unlikely to choose to bet a horse that has raced poorly in its recent races, when other entrants in the race have run well in the recent past. Yet, when it comes to buying horses, players seem to want to make every excuse possible as to why the horse is still a worthwhile purchase, despite running poorly in recent starts. Don’t fall into that trap. No matter how talented a horse has been in the past, if his recent races have been poor efforts, the horse should be avoided.

Just like real life, horses in SIM have a finite racing life. While SIM horses can race through the age of 9, horses that are competitive in their later years are the rare exception. Sprinters often peak at age two or three, while routers tend to peak more at three and four, and sometimes even at five or six. (I don’t think I’ve ever seen a horse, of any kind, have its best year at seven or later, though a rare few can maintain their form from prior years, at those ages.)

Most all horses are going to “go bad” at some point, and it can be as early as their 2yo season, especially in the case of sprinters. Recent poor performances, when the horse had raced well in the past, often means that the horse is on a permanent decline. If you buy such a horse, and he continues to race poorly, you’ll wonder what you’re doing wrong, since the horse can’t win like he used to. The fact is, the only thing you’re doing wrong is racing a horse whose racing days are behind him.

A lot of veteran players have a good feel for when a horse is on the verge of “going bad”, and they’ll put them up for sale, or drop them into a cheap claimer, hoping that the horse will sell while his race record still looks attractive.


The Long Layoff – One of the most common mistakes I made as a newbie, especially when buying horses owned by Alexander Jaysman (the computer), is not noticing the year of recent races. One of the functions of “AJ” is to take over abandoned stables, which means that some of the horses haven’t raced in a long time. Make sure, when looking at a horse’s race record, that the recent races are truly recent, and not from a year or so ago. Not that this automatically means such horses are bad buys – and there are cases when overly-fresh horses can win races – but, in general, you can’t expect the horse to be as good as he once was, after a year or more has gone by. In other words, if you buy a 7yo horse that last ran as a 5yo, and he was a minor stakes winner at five, it’s unlikely he’s still going to be a stakes quality horse at 7yo, especially if he’s a sprinter.


The Recent Maiden Winner – Be leery of horses that have run a lot of races, and finally broke their maiden in their last race. Such horses often look appealing, because they have consistent race records, with a lot of seconds and thirds, before finally winning. But here’s the bad news: those second and thirds were against other maidens – horses that also haven’t been able to win. As time goes along, and the horse ages, the maiden races get softer and softer, as other horses win and move on to NW2, or as players give up on horses that still haven’t won yet. So, the fact that it took the horse forever to finally win against dwindling competition really isn’t a very impressive resume.

Granted, I have had horses that finally broke their maiden, and followed it right up with a NW2 victory. In other words, the confidence boost from the maiden victory is all they needed to become a multiple winner. But these cases are the exception. Going from maiden company to NW2 is arguably the highest jump in class that a horses can make, and many horses are unable to compete successfully against other winners.


The Restricted Race Winner – Be leery of horses that have racked up a lot of wins and/or money in races that are restricted, and/or where the race descriptions indicate that the races were sponsored by a player.

Players can spend game points to create races to their own specifications. These specifications can include restricting the race in a way that makes it likely the competition will be soft and/or the field will be small, and therefore the sponsoring player’s own horse has a good chance of winning. Possible restrictions include making the race only for horses bred in a certain region (such as, I might make a race just for horses bred in Oklahoma, since I have a farm in Oklahoma and therefore have a lot of OK-bred horses); making the race only for horses of a certain player type (a newbie might make the race just for new players only); or making the race for horses sired by Game Point stallions. The latter are studs owned by The Steward, and the stud fee is paid in game points, rather than SIM dollars.

These restricted races can be stakes races with a purse as high as $100,000, though they can’t be graded stakes. Some players make a point a sponsoring a lot of stakes races for their own region, or their own player type, or for game point-sired horses that they own. Therefore, they can have horses that rack up a large amount of earnings and stakes wins, while having little competition. When such horses are put up for sale, or dropped in a claiming race, their records can look highly appealing. But the fact is, these horses often have no chance at competing successfully in open competition, and are often actually very mediocre horses, and sometimes downright bad horses.

Not all restricted races are sponsored by other players. The SIM itself cards some races restricted to horses bred in certain regions, and there are now carded Game Point Sire stakes, with lucrative purses, for 2yos in every division, Weeks 12 and 14. Still, whether a restricted race is sponsored or a regularly carded race, the competition is usually inferior to open races.

Bottom line, make sure you look carefully at the race descriptions of a prospective purchase. If the horse’s only good races are in sponsored and/or restricted races, let someone else buy that horse and suffer the disappointment when trying to race it in non-restricted company.


The Small Field Specialist – A tangent caveat to the above is the horse whose best races are only in small fields. Small fields are often the result of a race being sponsored or restricted, but sometimes ordinary races have small fields. If a horse’s only good races are in small fields, he doesn’t have to beat much to earn purse money, so he’s unlikely to be as talented as his race record makes him appear.


The Overly High Price – If you see a horse with a puzzling high price tag, and you can’t figure out what can possibly make the horse worth that amount (considering that you’ve probably seen lots of similar horses available for much cheaper prices), NEVER assume that “the seller must know something that I don’t”. One thing the seller can indeed know is that he or she might be able to take advantage of an ignorant new player, who assumes that the horse must be worth the asking price. Sellers have every right to sell a horse for the highest possible price – and there’s plenty of players with plush bankrolls who can afford to knowingly over-pay for a horse, if they desire – but newbies should avoid being a party to such transactions.

What newbies need most of all are profitable horses, and the ability to be profitable starts with how much was paid for the horse, in the first place. The lower the purchase price, the more likely you’ll make money from that horse. So, focus your buying efforts on horses that show some recent ability, but are in the $1000 range (there’s plenty of those to be had). When you start building up your bankroll, you can’t start risking buying horses that cost more.

If you really, really like a horse on the sales list, but the asking price is too high, it can be worth it to send the seller a private message. Explain that you’re a newbie and don’t have much money, but you really wish you could own that horse. Depending on the seller’s sympathy level toward newbies, their own financial situation, and how many horses they have (and are eager to get rid of), they just might discount the horse to a level you can afford. Some players might even downright give you the horse for free.

As you get more experienced with buying horses, you’ll learn which sellers to steer clear of, and which you should never pay the asking price for, because the seller is always willing to drop the price.


The Horse With Former Great Potential -- It always amazes me how often a newish player will be excited a by horse’s fast workouts, and/or by its high quality pedigree – and yet, completely overlook the fact that the horse has been racing for a while and has a lousy race record. If one is buying an unraced youngster, then certainly, timed works and pedigree are major factors in trying to determine if the horse has the potential to be a good racehorse. But once the horse of racing age, his race record will tell you whether he’s a good horse or not, and timed works as a yearling, as well as pedigree, don’t matter anymore.

Granted, there can be situations where timed works and/or pedigree can point to a late developing horse. Or, perhaps the horse has been racing at the wrong distance or surface by inexperienced prior owners, so hasn’t had a chance to show its true talent. Still, I feel strongly that new players should stick to basics, and get comfortable with success by adhering to proven principles. Then, once they reach a comfort level that they know what they’re doing with standard, everyday horses, they can then branch out to experimenting with “diamonds in the rough”, where a horse might be better than its racing record has thus far shown.



HORSES TO LOOK FOR
With so many above caveats about what to avoid when buying horses, then what the heck should a new player look for to purchase?

Here are horses that I think can be particularly good buys for new players, if the price is low enough.

The Almost Maiden Winner – In the above section, I said to avoid horses that just broke their maiden, if it took them a long time to finally get that maiden win. In contrast, I feel that the horse with a lot of seconds and thirds, but hasn’t yet broken its maiden, is a good buy, if its cheap. Chances are, the horse will break its maiden eventually, and you want to be his owner when he finally wins, so you get the winning purse money, as well as the thrill of a win. Even if the horse doesn’t ever break his maiden under your ownership, if he continues to hit the board a lot, then that ongoing purse money will make him profitable for you.

The Consistent Horse – The horse who earns purse money in almost every race -- most especially, in recent races – is a great buy. (Assuming that purse money hasn’t come from restricted races or small fields, as indicated in the above section.) There’s just plain nothing better for a newbie than the horse that can always be counted on to bring in purse money.

All Weather Horses – Horses that race on All Weather (as opposed to dirt or turf) can be great buys for the Alaska circuit. The reason is that there’s two tracks in Alaska that only have AW races. Yet, there’s considerably fewer players interested in AW than dirt or turf, so there’s fewer AW horses. This means that there’s overall less competition in the AW division, when it comes to ordinary horses. Therefore, such horses tend to have more consistent race records, because they have to beat fewer horses, than their dirt and turf stablemates.


New players start with a $100,000, and get additional influxes of cash throughout their newbie year. Yet, that starting money can disappear awfully fast, as the new player eagerly buys up horses. Please give yourself a chance to get on solid footing in SIM, by avoiding horses that are sure to be frustrating disappointments that only cost you money. Focus on what has the best chance to make you money. That’ll make you a happier player that is having more fun, as well as allowing you to build up your bankroll, so you can eventually buy better and better horses.





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