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Repeating in the Steward’s Cup Sprint
Original article written by Keith Maidlow posted 9 years 3 weeks agoIt’s interesting how winning and losing can generate both emotion and curiosity. The curiosity question and emotion of losing is the same, “why me?” The curiosity questions of winning are wide and varied: Who did this before? Based on the past, what is possible next? Is what happened or will happen unique?
When Godzuki won the SC Juvenile and was projected to be a horse that could run all day (and he could), it triggered the question and subsequent article on the fortunes of SC Juvy winners in Triple Crown races. Unfortunately, Godzuki did not outperform his precocious predecessors who, in general, were not generally successful on the Triple Crown Trail. This prompted the “why me?”
Now it’s Fourzen’s turn to elicit a question. A Steward’s Cup Sprint champion at 3 along with my decision to run him at 4 made me ask, “how many Sprint champions repeat?” The initial scary answer is ONE, Energy In Excess, back in SIM years 4 and 5 (old SIM). On top of that, the only SC Juvy Sprint champion to win the SC Sprint was Great White in 36 and 37. Yikes!!! Not many sprinters carry their Steward Cup success into the next Steward Cup season.
I became really nervous and needed to dig for some information that might help calm me down for SIM year 41.
We all know, or are finding out, a sprinters life on the track is short lived. Running a sprinter at 5 is, normally, expecting too much. So my first hope was that SC Sprint winners both won and retired after the race at 4. Out of the 39 race runnings, that happened 8 times (repeat winner Energy In Excess after second win, Big Gulp, Mischief Maker, Runaway, Hemi Cuda, Chris’ Missile, Piranha, Look Quick). Another 8 horses had run and lost the year before and then won and retired at 4 (Inspired Fate, Look My Best, Ad Infinitum, Delorean – all 2nd, Game of Skill – 3rd, Scream City, Independence Day and Crossword Puzzle – all 6th). Three horses retired after winning at 5 (Tremulous Echo, Villain, Great White and the undefeated pair Look Close and Quicker Than Light). Two horses retired after racing early in their 4 year old campaign (Out of Focus – week 2 and Look Danger – week 6). Others not defending were Kiln who was 5 and retired, Dramatic Gold and Yamikishi did not enter the race and retired at 4 and Maserati who finished 4th and 7th the previous years and retired after the race at 5. Finally Satelite raced his finale in a match race against The Scarlet Nite (both undefeated at the time), won the race and retired at 4.
So, 28 of the 39 races had no defending champion, good news! Leaving the bad news, 1 successful defense and 10 unsuccessful defense tries, less than 10%. Of the unsuccessful defenses, 8 were 3 year old winners who lost and retired after losing the race at 4 (Affirmed Success, Echo Iced – 2nd, Here’s Looking Atya, Bull Black Nova – 3rd, Static, Black Light – 5th, Vilify – 6th and Challenge Accepted – 8th. Sky Ruler was a 3 year old gelding, who won at 3 then lost twice, finishing 5th and 8th and retiring after week 7 of his 7 year old campaign. The final losing champion was Awesome Storm – 7th who won at 4 and retired after his unsuccessful defense at 5.
It appears that 3 year olds perform very well in the Steward’s Cup Sprint. Counting this year’s winner, a majority, 21, came from that group, 17 winners were 4 year olds and 2 were 5. That being said, this year’s two year old group needs to be looked at with a keen eye. “Two Year Old Sprint Championship” winner Robespierre ran a stunning SF of 94 after qualifying with a 93 two weeks before. Runner up filly Escaper was just a half back twice to Robespierre running figures of 92 and 91. Prime Factor won the SC Juvy Sprint with a decent speed figure and who knows what other late bloomer is waiting in the wings. Oh, and I’m guessing, there might be one other potential player, can you say “Lightning”?
Fourzen’s year 41 is already mapped out ending with a SC Sprint defense. I like the sound of “defending champ” but looking at how others have taken on the challenge, only 1 of 9 three year olds succeeded (and that one defense was many SIM moons ago, 36 to be exact), my nerves remain unsteady. As we see, winning today doesn’t guarantee winning tomorrow, but at the same time, history doesn’t always repeat itself and hope springs eternal. I’m sure an easier career ending race exists for Fourzen, but he will be in Toronto for the Steward’s Cup regardless of how year 41 goes. The nerves calm a bit knowing how hard he tries and how fast he finishes, and the mind is excited for the campaign ahead. Winning and being nominated for Simmy Awards also helps, he won the North American Champion Sprinter Simmy and was nominated for the North American Champion Three Year Old Male and Horse of the Year. But I’m sure the rearview mirror will be filled with potential dream wreckers and I will be checking it regularly to see who’s coming after the crown.