Long Island Classic MEGA preview

Original article written by Dan Kauffman posted 8 years 1 week ago

As of Monday afternoon, a nine-horse field was entered for the Long Island Classic, with Louisville Derby and Baltimore Crown winner Heart of the Storm ready to take his shot at becoming the sixth Triple Crown winner and the first in 12 years. Running down the entrants, in order of earnings:

HEART OF THE STORM
(Easy On the Eyes x All That I Am)
Owner: Dan Gordon
Breeder: The Steward
Record: 7: 5-2-0
Earnings: $2,382,500
Style: Speed
Notes: The black colt has gone wire-to-wire in both of his Triple Crown victories. He awed the Baltimore crowd by opening up a nearly seven-length lead on the back straight, then held on down the stretch to beat The Pumpkin King by almost two lengths. … Heart of the Storm opened his career with two listed stakes wins, followed by two second-place finishes in Grade 1 outings to close last year, including the Steward's Cup Juvenile. Both losses were by a nose, to Ood and Reverend Jamison. … He's undefeated in Year 42, starting the year with a win of more than seven lengths in his only prep race, the Rebellion Stakes at Hot Springs Park in Arkansas. … As a yearling, posted two five-furlongs workout times of 57.23 seconds, tying for third-best all-time. … Gordon acquired the colt as a yearling at auction for $1.46 million.
Can he get the distance?: Sire Easy On the Eyes was at his best at 1 1/8 miles, with a couple successful forays at 1 ¼ miles. He never raced beyond 10 furlongs. … All of dam All That I Am's wins came from 1 1/16 to 1 ¼ miles. Her only race at 12 furlongs came in the Year 36 Steward's Cup Ladies Route, and she finished fifth. … Grand sire Easy to Be Myself ran three races at 1 ½ miles, winning two of them — the Grade 3 California Freeway Stakes and the Grade 1 Peru Jockey Club Stakes in back-to-back outings in Year 30. … Dam sire Awake As I Am won all nine of his career starts, including the Year 23 Long Island Classic in his only outing at 12 or more furlongs. … All in all, it seems a reasonable question to wonder if Heart of the Storm can hold the lead everyone expects him to grab early all the way to the wire.
Prediction: He'll lead with two furlongs left. Book that now. What will happen from there? … I'll save that for the end of this preview.

SHERWOOD
(Anointed x Chocolate)
Owner: Pete Vella
Breeder: The Steward
Record: 7: 4-2-0
Earnings: $768,000
Style: Closer
Notes: After going 2-for-3 as a juvenile, including a win in the Grade 2 Two Year Old Marathon to cap Year 41, the brown colt won both of his Louisville Derby preps — the Grade 3 Battle of the Alamo and the Grade 1 Southern California Derby. … Sherwood surged from 11th to second in the second half of the Louisville Derby, but Heart of the Storm held him off by almost two lengths. … Perhaps tired from the quick turnaround, as well as having raced every other week dating to Week 14 of last year, Sherwood didn't show up in Baltimore, finishing sixth in the nine-horse field. … Vella acquired the colt as a yearling at auction for $6.5 million.
Can he get the distance?: Sire Anointed ran 12 furlongs once in his career, finishing third with a 77 speed figure in the Year 37 Long Island Classic. All of his 12 wins came from 1 1/16 to 1 ¼ miles. … Dam Chocolate, winner of six races in 11 starts, never raced longer than 1 3/16 miles and preferred 1 1/8 miles or shorter. … Grand sire Messiah won the Year 32 Long Island Classic with a 91 speed figure in his only race over 12 furlongs. … Dam sire East never raced longer than 1 ¼ miles.
Prediction: Thanks to his running style, plus Messiah, Sherwood has a prayer here (heh heh).

BROADCHURCH
(Whitespire x Happier)
Owner: Danny Derby
Breeder: The Steward
Record: 6: 4-0-0
Earnings: $285,000
Style: Speed
Notes: The black colt won his first two starts as a juvenile, including the Grade 3 Thriller Stakes at Long Island, before finishing a disappointing ninth in the Steward's Cup Juvenile. … Broadchurch won both of his Louisville Derby prep races — the Grade 3 Tremendous Stakes and the Grade 1 Kentucky Blue Stakes. … He stalked Heart of the Storm for most of the Louisville Derby, but faded to fifth over the final two furlongs. … He did not race in Baltimore. … Derby acquired Broadchurch as a yearling at auction for $4.5 million.
Can he get the distance?: Sire Whitespire raced three times at 12 furlongs, winning the California Marathon in Year 37 and finishing second in the Year 35 Long Island Classic and the Fighting With Wit Stakes at Long Island in Year 37. … Dam Happier preferred 1 1/8 miles and shorter, with a sixth-place finish in her only start of at least 1 ¼ miles, the Grade 1 Midsummer Oaks in Year 36. … Grand sire Magician loved to go long, on every surface to boot, winning all six races of 12 furlongs or longer that he ever entered — capped by his career finale, the Year 24 Steward's Cup Turf. … Dam sire Amidah posted two wins and a second in his three lifetime starts at 12 furlongs, with the victories coming in Grade 2 outings in Jamaica and Panama.
Prediction: There's no question about the pedigree, at all. The only question is, can you beat Heart of the Storm at his own speed game … or is it like playing with dynamite, where Heart of the Storm may blow up, but take Broadchurch with him? It will be fascinating to see how that unfolds. My gut tells me that this won't end well for Broadchurch. Good news for Danny — my gut is wrong a lot.

AMSTERDAM
(Manhattan x Put in Place)
Owner: Andrew James
Breeder: The Steward
Record: 6: 3-1-0
Earnings: $270,000
Style: Versatile, but tends to prefer coming from off the pace.
Notes: The brown colt won his first two starts, including the Grade 3 With Kind Regard Stakes, before finishing fifth in the Steward's Cup Juvenile. … He won the Grade 3 Hogwarts Stakes, a Week 2 prep, then was second to Broadchurch in the Kentucky Blue Stakes — rallying from fifth, but finishing 1 ½ lengths back. … He was never a factor in the Louisville Derby, finishing eighth, and skipped the Baltimore Crown. … James acquired Amsterdam as a yearling at auction for $915,000.
Can he get the distance?: Sire Manhattan did some of his best work at long-distance. In six outings at or beyond 12 furlongs — he raced up to 2 miles — he won twice, was second twice and was third once. The wins came in the Grade 2 Gallant Socks Handicap over 1 ½ miles in Year 39, and the Grade 1 Desert Marathon over 2 miles three weeks later. … Dam Put in Place never raced farther than 1 3/8 miles, although she did have a win and a second at that distance. … Grand sire Highly Regarded won seven races at or beyond 12 furlongs, with six of them over 2 miles. Among the wins was the Year 29 Steward's Cup Marathon in his final race, capping a string of three straight 2-mile victories.
Prediction: This is a dangerous contender, with plenty of distance pedigree and a style that should pay dividends here. Based on his pedigree, I believe the best of Amsterdam's career is still to come … and it might start Friday.

HOLD ABOVE
(Paramount x Hold Dear)
Owner/breeder: Art Vandelay
Record: 6: 2-1-3
Earnings: $193,000
Style: Speed
Notes: Has never been off the board, with his biggest outing coming two weeks ago with a win in the Grade 1 Puerto Rico Crown. … Has never raced longer than 1 1/8 miles.
Can he get the distance?: Sire Paramount raced once at 12 furlongs, an eighth-place finish in the Year 34 Long Island Classic, and preferred 1 ¼ miles and shorter. … Dam Hold Dear was a true marathoner, with four wins, four seconds and two thirds at distances of 1 ½ miles and longer. … Grand sire War Daddy finished second by a quarter-length to Flames in the Year 25 Long Island Classic in his only 12-furlong outing. He was at his best at 1 1/8 miles and shorter. … Dam sire The Awakening finished sixth in the Year 27 Long Island Classic in his only start at 12 furlongs. He preferred 1 ¼ or 1 1/8 miles.
Prediction: There's some potential here given Hold Dear's bloodline, but — again — this just doesn't feel like a race that's going to set up for any speed horse other than (and maybe not even) Heart of the Storm.

WANDERING DESERT
(Fillory x Mecha)
Owner: Jack Meyer
Breeder: The Steward
Record: 6: 3-2-0
Earnings: $159,500
Style: Closer
Notes: The chestnut colt won his first two starts before finishing 11th in the Steward's Cup Juvenile. He opened this year with a win in the Just a Way Stakes in Tokyo, and was second in each of his last two races — the Desert Derby in Week 4 and the Mojave Stakes in Week 6. … Originally purchased by Billy Anderson for $301,000 at a yearling auction, then sold to Meyer for $775,000 before his racing career started.
Can he get the distance?: Sire Fillory scored two wins and a second-place finish in races at 12 furlongs. Both wins came in Grade 2 Movie Marathon Stakes, in Years 37-38. … Dam Mecha had four wins and three seconds in seven career outings at or beyond 12 furlongs, with the best win coming in the Grade 3 Gran Premio Criadores in Argentina in Year 34. … Grand sire Father Ralph finished fifth in the Year 29 Long Island Classic in his only race at 12 furlongs. He preferred 1 ¼ miles and shorter. … Dam sire Same never raced longer than 10 furlongs.
Prediction: While I'm not really worried about his distance pedigree, I don't think Wandering Desert — whose best speed figure is an 83 — has enough juice to be a real threat.

GENTLEMAN
(High Esteem x Pal)
Owner: Art Vandelay
Breeder: The Steward
Record: 6: 2-2-1
Earnings: $135,000
Style: Speed
Notes: The brown colt won two of three starts as a juvenile, but is winless this year — albeit with second-place finishes to Thunder Road by a nose in the Grade 3 Masterpiece Stakes and to Sherwood by half a length in the Southern California Derby. … He was never a threat in the Louisville Derby, fading badly over the second half of the race to finish 14th. He has not raced since. … Vandelay purchased Gentleman at a yearling auction for almost $2 million.
Can he get the distance?: Sire High Esteem thrived in marathon races, with seven wins in races of 12 furlongs and longer. One of those was not the Long Island Classic, as he finished second in Year 30 — beaten half a length by Maelstrom, who is the last horse to win the Triple Crown. High Esteem won the Steward's Cup Marathon in Year 31, one of five 2-mile races he was victorious in. … Dam Pal never raced beyond 1 1/8 miles. … Grand sire Notorious finished second in the Year 18 Long Island Classic in his only start longer than 1 ¼ miles. … Dam sire East never raced longer than 10 furlongs.
Prediction: Love his pedigree — like Amsterdam, I believe Gentleman's best is yet to come — but unlike Amsterdam, Gentleman wants to run up front. That's likely to be the wrong style here.

STRONG MESSAGES
(Grant x Rowdy Behavior)
Owner/breeder: Jon Xett
Record: 6: 3-1-0
Earnings: $103,500
Style: Closer
Notes: After opening his career with two non-stakes wins, the black colt finished sixth in the Steward's Cup Juvenile. His Louisville Derby prep races didn't so as planned — a second in the Grade 3 Rising Star Stakes and a fourth in the Grade 1 New Orleans Derby — but he bounced back with his best career effort, a win in the Grade 3 Brushfire Derby with a 91 speed figure on a sloppy track two weeks ago.
Can he get the distance?: Sire Grant finished third in the Grade 1 Canadian Breeders' Stakes on turf in Year 38, his only race of 12 furlongs. … Dam Rowdy Behavior did her best work from 1 1/8 miles down and never went longer than 10 furlongs. … Grand sire The Awakening finished sixth in the Year 27 Long Island Classic in his only race longer than 10 furlongs. … Dam sire Who I Am never raced longer than 1 ¼ miles.
Prediction: Right style, wrong pedigree.

FREE
(Doc Halladay x Flightful)
Owner: Scott Eiland
Breeder: The Steward
Record: 6: 3-0-0
Earnings: $39,000
Style: Speed
Notes: After winning his maiden outing, the colt finished fifth in his next two outings, both graded stakes events. He opened this year with an NW2 win before finishing fifth in the Grade 2 Keyboard Courage Stakes. His last race was an NW3 victory two weeks ago.
Can he get the distance?: Does it matter? … OK, OK, I'll do it anyway … Sire Doc Halladay never raced beyond 1 ¼ miles. … Dam Flightful finished sixth in the 12-furlong, Grade 1 Long Island Acorn in Year 32, and never raced longer than 1 ¼ miles otherwise. … Grand sire War Daddy was covered in the Hold Above capsule. … Dam sire Redwood finished fourth in the Year 27 Long Island Classic in his only 12-furlong test.
Prediction: A speed horse that's enver finished better than fifth in a stakes race, that has very little distance pedigree? Where do I sign up?

SO, DOES HEART OF THE STORM WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN?
My heart wants it to happen … but my head says Amsterdam is the horse to beat. Sherwood could get up to be a factor, too. I really like packaging those three in a trifecta. Amsterdam, Sherwood, Heart of the Storm to go 1-2-3.

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