Shooting Yourself in the Foot - What, When, & Where to Race

Original article written by Regina Moore posted 8 years 4 weeks ago

This article is looking at racing horses from a macro perspective. Of course, for any individual horse, one needs to look at the specific race options. Still, I think there's a lot that can be gained from some general concepts.


WHAT TO RACE
I just did a search on all races for Week 6 of Year 43. There's 2276 races. I then narrowed the search to just maiden races. 838 of those 2276 races are restricted to maidens. That's 37% -- over one-third!

Maidens are wonderful money making horses, no matter their gallop level, because there's so many opportunities for them. Why would anyone give up on a horse before it has a chance to break its maiden? Such an idea befuddles me. Even if the horse never breaks its maiden by the time it's 5yo (I always have a few of those), they're likely going to be earning some secondary purse money during their fruitless quest to be a winner.

Even though it's currently only Week 6 of Year 43, there are some 2yo Thoroughbred maiden races that just have three or four horses in them. There's already 4yo+ Appaloosa mid and route maiden races, 4yo+ Paint mid and route maiden races, and 4yo+ Quarter Horse route maiden races that don't have any entries. None. Zero. Those mixer races all have 12k purses, which means 6k to the winner. And yet, there's nobody to run in those races, because their owners got rid of masses of horses for being "not worth bothering with". Players bothered breeding them, but didn't want to bother racing them, when they weren't an upper level galloper.

And so all that purse money sits there, week after week, unclaimed. Talk about shooting oneself in the foot.


WHEN TO RACE
No, this isn't a lecture about how your horse should have its races spaced two to three weeks apart. This is looking at the broader picture.

On Thursday morning of Week 1 this year, a SIM friend dropped me a message, talking about how "unspectacular" his new 2yos were, including, "productives entered into mid level maiden claiming races and didn't pick up a single win from any of them." Bummer. But, to me, that kind of unhappy result was pretty much par for the course, for somebody racing most of their youngsters as soon as races open. During Week 1 of this year, I ran some 120 horses across the breeds. Only four of them were 2yos.

Think about it. Everybody with a 2yo sprinter is eager to run it as soon as races open, to see what it can do. (Ditto for 2yo milers mid year, and 2yo routers Week 10.) So, the maiden races are filled up with horses of all quality levels. One thing I'm sure of about regarding 2yo races Week 1: There's probably going to be at least one horse in the race that's faster than my horse. So, I'd rather wait a few weeks, for most of my horses, for the maiden races to start softening, as horses win and move on, or their owners are so disappointed that they give up on them and get rid of them.

In short, I want to give my horses a chance to be winners. That means being patient, and waiting for the right spot.

In actuality, I end up racing many of my 2yo deadbeat horses before I ever intend to. Because there's a maiden race (often with a juicy purse) with just two horses over in Japan, or with just three horses down in Australia, or just one horse entered, so far, in South Africa, or just a few horses in Argentina. So, I give my deadbeat horses a chance to be successful in races where nobody else wants to bother shipping.

As far as racing cheap horses in cheap maiden races, consider this: Lots of large stables have enough quality youngsters, that they don't mind losing a mid-level youngster in a cheap claiming race, especially if they get the win. Or, they might be trying to sneak in an easy win for their mid-level horse, and hoping nobody notices and tries to claim it. So I, for one, am highly skeptical that cheap 2yo claiming races have only deadbeat horses in them, especially near the beginning of the year. I'd rather keep my deadbeat horse in the barn, and wait for later, softer spot, often with a higher purse.

What if, no matter what you do, your horse finishes so poorly, race after race, that it can't earn purse money? I always have some of those -- including higher level gallopers. What I suggest is just letting that horse sit in the barn for six or eight weeks. Why keep racing a horse that is doing poorly? It's major depressing. Plus, the horse is surely getting its confidence clobbered with repeated losses. Still, I believe those horses are worth hanging onto, if they're maidens. After letting them sit on the sidelines for half a game year, try them again in a (hopefully) soft spot. They'll likely do better, especially if the fields are smaller. If they still don't do well, put them on the sidelines for a few more weeks. I don't recommend giving up completely on a maiden until the end of its 4yo season, but that doesn't mean you have to "beat a dead horse", and race it relentlessly and fruitlessly, in the meantime.


WHERE TO RACE
If you race frequently in claiming races in Alaska, and are satisfied with your results, then you can skip this section.

For everyone else, who struggles to have success in Alaska (and that includes me), I have one suggestion for you: stop racing in Alaska!

Really.

Alaska is where the cheapest claiming races are (as well as having higher end claimers). No other circuit has claiming races below a $5,000 tag. So, the logical thing is that if you have a barn full of cruddy horses, you probably feel that Alaska is the only place you can race them and have any chance of them earning at least a little bit of purse money.

Not true. In fact, the idea that Alaska is the only place that bad horses can race successfully is a blatant falsehood, if one is talking about a dirt or turf Thoroughbred maiden. Per the first section, above, the SIM is full of maiden races. They're all over the world. That's the key -- all over the world.

If you're unhappy with your race results, pull your maidens out of Alaska and open your eyes.

Here's what some of my cruddy 2yo dirt and turf sprinters have accomplished in non-restricted races, just through Week 5 of Year 43:
Hot Water (claimer turf sprinter) - one 5th of five in a 32k maiden claimer in Japan, and one 1st of three in a MSW in Japan. Earnings: $15,240
Night Sweats (claimer turf sprinter) - only start was a win in a two-horse MSW in South Africa. Earnings: $10,000
Farewell Faith (claimer turf sprinter) - only start was a third of four in a stakes in Japan. Earnings: $5,000
Destroy Mine (claimer dirt sprinter) - two starts in Japan -- 2nd of five in a claimer and 3rd of three in a MSW. Earnings: $3,840
Was and Happy (claimer dirt sprinter) - two starts in small MSW fields in Uruguay, third in both. Earnings: $2200

The above doesn't include a handful of winners in JPN-bred and AUS-bred restricted races, because I don't think that would be a fair comparison, since not everybody has JPN-bred and AUS-bred horses.

Why would I race my deadbeat horses in crowded Alaska maiden fields, for often small purses, when I can go elsewhere in the world, and race against fewer horses for often better purses? Hanging out in Alaska with my deadbeat horses would be shooting myself in the foot, when there's so many softer spots and higher purses available elsewhere.


Players can sabotage themselves by doing what everybody else does -- which usually means entering one's youngsters as soon as races are available, entering one's deadbeats in over-crowded fields in Alaska, and getting rid of maidens just because of their quality level, while ignoring just how many opportunities there are for maiden horses to earn purse money.

Don't shoot yourself in the foot. Give your horses a chance to be successful.

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