Year 25 Louisville Derby Thoughts

Original article written by The Steward posted 14 years 4 weeks ago

As the breeder of this year's Louisville Derby winner Flames, I feel a strong attachment to this brilliant son of Oak Park. He was years in the making, and a tribute to my faith in his underproductive dam, Wedon'tneedwords.

Wedon'tneedwords was bred to be a superstar. She ran for trainer Jon Xett and broke her maiden first out, ironically defeating a mare named Flame. After taking a one-mile allowance, it looked as though the possibilities were endless for the daughter of Chesapeake Bay, but "Words" never won again. To be fair, she lost by a half length next out to Loki Miracle (dam of Sun Raider), then returned as a three-year-old to finish third behind Tiara in the Louisville Oaks, then fourth behind the same rival in the Midsummer Oaks.

Words' dam, Personal Ensign, is quite the broodmare, having produced My Flag (dam of Derby winner Soldier Girl) and Salute (dam of Notorious), but sometimes the talent seemed to skip a generation. Ourpathswillcross, who earned $682,000, seems like a top horse on the surface, but she cost $16 million at auction and her total progeny earnings are just over $1.5 million. Pasquale earned $952,000, but she hasn't quite reached the $1 million mark in offspring earnings, despite being a $7.2 million purchase. Both of these mares' offspring bring millions at the sales each year, hoping to strike lightning.

It seems lightning has finally struck with Flames. Wedon'tneedwords produced 7 stakes winners from her first nine foals, but none of them earned even half a million, despite sales tags totalling a couple million. Flames was the most expensive purchase at $821,000 in the Two Year Old in Training Sale last year.

After running a disheartening tenth first out going only one turn, Flames took a maiden race by 2 1/4, then finished third to juvenile sensation Beyond the Stars and the expensive baby Lofty Goals to close out his two-year-old season. Interestingly, in that race, Flames trashed West by 6 1/4 lengths, signaling greater things to come.

This year, Flames prepped perfectly. He sat out the end of Year 24 to be able to run Week 1 Monday, where he defeated two of the early Derby favorites in Earn the Roses and War Daddy. Despite the victory, he remained under the radar, and headed to New York to face the New York, New York field (G1). Flames won that too, defeating Twin Spires by a head with an 80 speed figure, 1 notch lower than the 81 in his season opener. When third in the race against Beyond the Stars and Lofty Goals, Flames had earned a 92, so it was clear that we weren't close to this horse's best yet.

Despite the major prep win and perfect season, Flames headed to Louisville as a relative underdog. He paid $1,305 on a $100 bet, coming in on the longer shot side of things rather than what a dazzling three-year-old should be - he easily could have been fourth choice. Although he only ran an 81 speed figure in the Derby, one of the slowest in memory, his finish time equals that of Loki Dynasty, and bests Saga, Priceless Forever, and Loki Flame to name a few. Unlike some Derby winners, this one has the stamina to go 1 1/2 and should be a force in both of the next two races.

And how about that Gerry Hardie? Although not in the Hall of Fame yet, he is rumored to be on the ballot for Year 26. After starting in Year 7, Hardie has consistently had one superhorse after the next. He trained/owned four of the top twenty earners of all time, and has all kinds of diversity in his barn. One of his first superstars was Promisesinthedark, a $7.7 million earner on the turf. He's won three Long Island Classics, both with $7.5million + earners Gaze Unwavering and Pillar of Strength, and also with $3.2 million earner Desert Nomad. Just last year, Hardie retired Desert World Cup Hero Born the Best, also a $7 million earner.

This year, Hardie is campaigning two of the best turf sprinters in training, including arguably one of the great turf sprinters of all time, Silent Partner, a homebred who is 8 for 8 so far with no signs of slowing. In all, Hardie has bred 96 stakes winners in his career, including 12 millionaires, and is the driving force behind his homebred Hall of Famer Midnightconfession, one of the great sires of all time.

Flames was the seventh horse Hardie started in the Derby, and his first win. He finished second with Gaze Unwavering back in Year 10, and was second again with Desert Nomad ten years later. Flames is his first starter since then, and is the second Derby winner for his brilliant sire Oak Park.

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If for some farm rest, we might have had a different Derby winner. West ran 16 - 2 - 4 - 6, but didn't visit the farm between his Arcadia Derby victory and the race in Kentucky. He was just tired enough to run second, the same place his brother East finished two years ago. The dam, Baby, has a two-year-old son of Enforcer named Center.

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Scratching Desert Longshot in favor of the Baltimore Crown was one of the best decisions made all week by a trainer. Sons of Giacomo are 0-fer in the Derby, but they have won two Crowns. Although the last horse to win the Crown without running in the Derby was Boise in Year 18, Desert Longshot had a great prep season and will be more rested than his Derby-running rivals.

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One has to wonder how Lofty Goals would have run in the Derby. The Martinelli-trainee originally wasn't entered for lack of points, then attempts to reach Martinelli to make the switch failed. Lofty Goals won the sponsored "Consolation Derby" in hand by 5 1/2 lengths, finishing only .02 slower than Flames did against a full field.

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The field of 19 was the smallest since Year 20, when 16 horses ran for the Roses. Every year since then has had the full 20 hopefuls.

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The "Year of the Filly" turned out to be not as advertised, with the five fillies running 4th, 15th, 16th, 18th, and 19th. The only one who had beaten colts, Asleep As I Am, was the one to finish fourth, showing that the ability to defeat males is almost necessary to do well in the Derby. Although Year 21 Derby winning filly High Flyer did not win her prep against males, she only missed by a head with a 91 speed figure. None of the fillies in this year's race were even close to that mark.

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Flames is the 7th Derby winner I've bred in 25 years, but only the second in the last 10 years.

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