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History Says Stay Awake Has Best Chance to Win the Crown
Original article written by The Steward posted 13 years 1 week agoA quick look at Baltimore Crown history yields that the horse who finishes second in the Louisville Derby is most often the horse to win the second jewel.
Nine horses in twenty-six runnings of the Crown have come off a second-place Derby finish to win the Crown, including both Thriller and West in the last two years. The trend started in Year 5 when Memorex Victory upset Derby winning filly Soldier Girl at the wire. Ground Zero's defeat of longshot Derby hero El Rival Decade in Baltimore followed, and after The Edge of Night and Herkemayah closed out the old SIM with similar victories, the trend continued starting with the new SIM. Edict, Empire, and King of Jesters all missed the Roses but wore the Black Eyed Susans.
This points at Stay Awake as the likely Crown winner. The burly speedster turned back one challenge after the next in the Derby, and simply couldn't hold off the late running stalker Believe the Hype at the wire. Trainer Alysse Jacobs is confident that Stay Awake will capture at least one leg of the Crown this year, and the odds are higher that it will be the second leg rather than the third, the Long Island Classic, a race which is littered with longshot newcomer winners.
Believe the Hype himself has the second best chance to take the Crown, according to history's statistics. The Derby winner will try to join Tilt a Whirl, Priceless Forever, Tremendous, Loki Masterpiece, Jet Ski, and Awake As I Am as back to back Triple Crown leg winners. Four of the six went on to take the entire Crown, with Tilt a Whirl and Loki Masterpiece falling short in the Classic.
Horses that finish in the top five in the Derby combined have won 21 of 26 Crowns. Victory Gallop, Gotham City, and Cobalt were all third in the Derby before winning the Crown, while Live Strong and Gabriel were fourth and Fire Added Starter was fifth. That lends itself to the notion that Career Maker, Greatest Game, and Highly Regarded would all also have a shot in the Crown, but all three of them appear to be headed straight to Long Island instead, with Career Maker's decision still in flux.
Only twice in history has a horse finished worse than fifth in the Derby and come back to win the Crown. The first time it happened was with Perfect Storm, a plucky bay who finished an inexplicable 12th in the Derby. The other horse is the infamous Sun Raider, whose domination in the Crown and Classic left fans wondering if a second prep race before the Derby - where he finished 8th - would have given the sport another Triple Crown winner.
It isn't impossible that a horse who did not run in the Derby could win the Crown. It has happened three times, most recently with Boise in Year 18. The other two winners were fillies, and both were coming off victories in the Louisville Oaks.
The 27th Baltimore Crown will be run this Friday, June 4th, with the live call taking place in the chat room at 7:55 pm Pacific.