Rundown of the Baltimore Crown

Original article written by Laura Ferguson posted 13 years 0 weeks ago

It is the morning of the Crown, and only one article on Simmy Award is up as of the time I wrote this. Persevere did not scare anyone away, as five other Derby runners and a host of new shooters showed up, all in hopes of winning the coveted Baltimore Crown.

Persevere won strongly, with a solid but not gut-busting speed figure of 80. Has done nothing wrong all year, but has to bring back his A game on short rest against a bunch of fresh shooters over a shorter distance. Bigger concern, at least to me, is the super-abbreviated farm rest. I suspect auto-ship was the culprit, but I’m not sure that not quite two days of farm rest really offsets the extra stop. He’ll be one tired puppy coming out of this race.

California Saint ran an essentially winning race, but could not quite withstand Persevere’s late stretch run. Distance should be right up his alley, and is game as they come. On the negative side, only three days’ farm rest, and has had three tough, tough races in a row, and this will be his fifth race since Week 16.

Triumph was my pick for the Derby, along with a lot of other people. Royally bred colt was just a length short in third, and with only one Derby prep and almost four days’ farm rest, he could be sitting on a big one.

The fifth place Derby finisher, Battlehorse, also returns for the second leg of the Triple Crown. He had three tough races in a row, and it all kind of caught up with him in Kentucky, as he faded in the stretch after dueling with Axel. Consistent and gutsy colt, I would not be surprised if he ultimately wants longer, got almost five days’ of farm rest. Would be better if he could get loose on the lead, but unfortunately, that does not seem likely with . . .

Sixth place finisher and fellow pacesetter Axel also in the starting gate. Poor Axel has all the talent in the world, but not a lot of racing luck – he is winless in three starts this season, having been caught at the wire by California Saint and Battlehorse before fading to sixth in the Derby. Emily Mitchell needs to find a way to either get this colt to rate or otherwise hold on. Has two days’ of farm rest, and again, has the talent, but the luck’s got to turn if he wants to wear the Black-Eyed Susans.

Ninth place finisher Zulu Dancer was well behind his Derby-winning stablemate, and Xett wheels this guy back as well. Was a nice winner in the Fountain of Gold to kick off the season, but the wheels have sort of come off in the next two starts. Looks more like a 1 ½ mile horse with that pedigree and late kick, but he’s here. Like his stablemate, had a very short spell at the farm.

The new shooters include Paul Heinrich’s An Army of One. Colt tore up the clocker’s timers in the morning as a yearling, and has been solid, if not spectacular, since. By the same sire as Derby winner Don’t Hesitate, he enters this race off of a second place finish in the Illinois Derby. With his front running style, he should be tangling early with Battlehorse and Axel, although he should appreciate the extra distance.

Desert Kingdom in unbeaten in two starts this year, but takes a big step up in class here. Fresh off a win in the Herkemayah, and should have his confidence high. Still, he needs to prove he belongs here, as he hasn’t faced a field this tough, his lifetime best speed figure is a 76, and will get pressured on the front end by An Army of One, Battlehorse and Axel.

Dream Horse had a solid start in his seasonal debut, then bounced badly in the Kentucky Blue. Ladonna King backed off with her prize colt, and he has had plenty of time to recover from that poor outing. On his best day, he fits speed figure wise, and would not be a surprise if he turns things around here.

Gift of the Sun is clearly a speedy miler, but proved last time out that he might be more than that, when he was a narrowly beaten third behind Whitney in the Hot Springs Derby. Has had plenty of rest since then, and his sire, Boise, won this race back in year 18. A definite threat.

North is the latest Nalbone trainee to hit the Triple Crown. Yet another son of East, North finished second behind Firing Range in the Giacomo Stakes, then won his next two. Like Desert Kingdom, he has not faced the biggest guns in the division, so gets a class test here, and is not as rested as some of the other fresh faces, as he has raced Weeks 1, 3, 5 and now 7. Still, he’s been able to win stalking and from off the pace, his speed figures fit right in there, and his dam has already produced one Baltimore Crown winner in Edict.

Notoriously Best is a nice looking, late maturing colt out of the Righteous mare, Be the Best. He won the Oyster Stakes last time out, and is a fresh face. Like Desert Kingdom, gets a class test here, and won’t have it easy, since he also likes to be on or near the lead. But he is steadily improving and is fresher than a lot of his rivals.

Simmy Award also makes an appearance. I trained his dam, and she did not get good until late in her three year old season, going long. He’s shown more precocity than his dam, but he’s still eligible for an N2L, and may need a confidence boost at some point. Still, he’s got ability, and this stone cold closer should appreciate longer. Think 1 ½ miles or more will ultimately be his strength, possibly 1 1/4, but should get a lively pace up front so hopefully can put that closing kick to his best use.

Wildfire had kind of a rocky start to his career, but once finally dropped down into maiden company, got the win, and then followed it up with a victory in the Mexican Derby – not traditionally thought of as a Crown prep, but there you go. Main concern with him is all the shipping – from California to New York and back, then to Panama, Mexico, back to Panama, and now Maryland. It is definitely more frequent flyer miles than the rest of his competition. Has butted heads with Dream Horse and Bright Shine while still a maiden, and clearly has the talent. He also can run on the lead, but doesn’t need the lead, which could be key in this projected pace scenario. If two wins have given him enough of a confidence boost, and all the shipping has not taken too much out of his, look out, as this guy looks to avenge his half-brother, Flame, who was third in the Crown, and follow in his sire’s hoofprints (who has already sired one Crown winner in Thriller).

I think this sets up for a stalker/come from behind runner, but you never know what’s going to happen when the starting gate opens. I might have been a little kid, but when I watched Eternal Prince stumble at the gate, two seconds into the race, I knew two things: my boy, Chief’s Crown was screwed, and Spend a Buck was going to win on an uncontested lead. Approximately two minutes later, I was proven right on both counts. Good luck to all the trainers and their horses!

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