Gallop Comments for Scientists

[Tammy Stawicki]

There is another thread to talk about how your life is ruined because of your gallop comments. Let's keep this one to just talking about the data.

Here is what I saw

Yearlings all paint (sprinter and middle distance) 28 total:
1 Freak (3.6%) - Snow Capped Castle
7 stakes (25%) - (All Night High (QH), Colored Spotlights, Dark Night Dance (QH), Dashin JJ, Gray Patches, Inspired Jet Flash (QH), Let You Shine (QH))
11 Allowance (39.3%)
6 Productive
3 Solid

62.5% of my stakes and freaks came out of holiday sale stallions when those stallions represented only 30% of the sires I used. 50% came out of quarter horses when those stallions only represented 38% of the sires I used.

Of my 2yos I had 2 freaks, 5 stakes when I galloped them last year. the two freaks were downgraded to stakes and all but one of the stakes was downgraded to allowance.

I'm guessing based on the numbers being reported that freaks are now just the creme de la creme, win all the stakes types horses with your average run of the mill stakes winners being stakes gallopers which fits the labels nicely. Will be interesting to see what happens once they start racing.

If anyone else would like to share their numbers or rational analysis have at it.

[Kenneth Prater]

From your data I would say a lot of breeders are going to keep going back to the Holiday Stallions.

[Tammy Stawicki]

If we took it a step further 100% of my freak/stakes came from horses that were "created" rather than player bred and raced horses. With about 62% of the total horses I bred being "created" horses.

Though all this is a small sample size of only 29 horses in 2 divisions. I'd love to see some other numbers.

[The Steward]

I’m really fascinated that there are “none” now, because the shift was only .4 across the board. That means that huge number who have dropped to stakes are all in the same .4 zone.

[Mr. Lord Rich]

I’m really fascinated that there are “none” now, because the shift was only .4 across the board. That means that huge number who have dropped to stakes are all in the same .4 zone.

Did pacers and trotters get the same .4 drop?

[Laura Smith]

Just talking Paints and QHs, because I have a reasonable enough sample size of those to maybe mean something:

Paint (all routers): 23 bred
2 stakes (8.6%)
Total 13 alw or better (56%)
Interestingly, 12 of the 13 alw+ were by game bred stallions; only one of the allowances was by a holiday sire.
Last year, I bred 17, with 2 freaks (12%), 3 stakes (17%) and 65% alw or better.
Just regalloped all 17 and now I'm at 2 stakes (12%) and four alw, so 6 total alw or better (35%) which seems WAY more in line with realism.

QH (mix of mostly sprint and route with a mid or two): 19 bred
6 stakes (31%)
Total 9 alw or better (47%)
Different story here, with 5 of 9 alw or better being by holiday stallions.
Last year, I bred 17. 1 freak (6%), 3 stakes (18%), 11 alw or better (65% again.)
Just regalloped: down to 1 stakes (6%) and 5 alw, so 6 alw or better (35%.)

Pretty much as expected since I think QHs were the most over-the-top inflated in terms of gallop comments, so I'm not surprised at all. I'm happy that we'll hopefully no longer be running freaks in claimers.

[Flizan Hambletonian]

Ok. I havn't galloped mine yet (waiting for Polk to come home and we´ll do our horses together). But what happens to the stallion statistics? The studbook will be somewhat confusing and misleading?

[The Steward]

I’m really fascinated that there are “none” now, because the shift was only .4 across the board. That means that huge number who have dropped to stakes are all in the same .4 zone.

Did pacers and trotters get the same .4 drop?

Yes, everything non-Thoroughbred.

[Tammy Stawicki]

Ok. I havn't galloped mine yet (waiting for Polk to come home and we´ll do our horses together). But what happens to the stallion statistics? The studbook will be somewhat confusing and misleading?

The numbers will stay as they are unless horses are regalloped in which case they will update. So it will be hard to compare new vs old studs by solely gallop comments for a few sum years.

[Mr. Lord Rich]

I’m really fascinated that there are “none” now, because the shift was only .4 across the board. That means that huge number who have dropped to stakes are all in the same .4 zone.

Did pacers and trotters get the same .4 drop?

Yes, everything non-Thoroughbred.

Either my pacers and trotters are just really good or they needed a bigger drop then the other mixed breeds.
I guess we will see the results from others.

[The Steward]

Did pacers and trotters get the same .4 drop?

Yes, everything non-Thoroughbred.

Either my pacers and trotters are just really good or they needed a bigger drop then the other mixed breeds.
I guess we will see the results from others.

Likely they need a bigger drop, but I'm not crazy enough to do a drop THAT big in one go, because everyone would jump off a cliff and cry and it would be very sad.

[Louise Bayou]

Okay I will be the first to admit I hate change.. BUT I freaking LOVE this one!! I am sick to death of having FAKE NEWS freaks! I have a barn full of freaks but guuuuuuess what? They can't out run me. So what the hell is the point of them having the word "freak" beside their gallop? As a status symbol? To heck with that! I want it to mean something and if this change helps them run truer to how TB gallop comments are I'm all for it.

And P.S.. to all of those complaining about mixer stud fees this should really help the inflated freak stats and maybe the fees will level out a bit!

[Katie Stepanian]

I really do hope that the stud fees drop in line with this. It was bad enough some of the fees because they were the freak creating stud, but in reality the foals wouldn't make the money back.
If you have a freak, it should hopefully run like one. Otherwise, as Lou said, what's the point?
Whilst, it was a bit of a surprise to wake up to, I understand and hopefully this means that the allowances of the mixer world can run in the races intended for them. Fingers crossed!

[Flizan Hambletonian]

This is my very first freak, whom I was very proud of. Look at her results. I havn't trained her this year, I´m afraid of the result... https://www.simhorseracing.com/horse.php?HorseID=963567

[Louise Bayou]

I think its awesome that some trainers are lucky enough to have their freaks run..well freaky. But as a trainer that has 99.9999% of hers run like a 3 legged donkey I am happy to not get a "fake" gallop comment. Because I'll be honest with y'all I almost quit mixers. I would get a bunch of freaks only to have them not be able to win a race or a NW2. And that really makes you hate mixers or at least it did me. Because you get a freak and while you know the issues with the comments you still get super excited... and they run like crap.