Mixer Stakes

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Laura Ferguson
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Mixer Stakes

Post by Laura Ferguson »

I feel like I've been hanging out with Spencer in the Sim Sanctum after all this number crunching, but I wanted to share what I've figured out, as well as the direction I think I'm heading, to get feedback from the mixer community. The graded stakes listed below EXCLUDE races at player-owned tracks (I did not exclude player-owned tracks from the listed stakes, so that may skew the percentages slightly). I can also break them down by division, but I think the issue is pretty clear sticking to a breed-specific level:

Appy 26 G1 0 G2 8 G3 (4585 yearlings) 7% of total listed/graded stakes are graded
Arab 16 G1 8 G2 22 G3 (1951 yearlings) 17%
Paint 26 G1 10 G2 16 G3 (3924 yearlings) 11%
QH 37 G1 10 G2 13 G3 (5311 yearlings) 12%
Trotter 18 G1 8 G2 12 G3 (2325 yearlings) 14.5%
Pacer 18 G1 9 G2 12 G3 (2459 yearlings) 14%

To put it in perspective, the thoroughbred have a much larger crop (more than 20,000), but they also have a lot more graded stakes percentage-wise. One disclaimer, this isn't quite an apples to apples comparison, as I left player-owned tracks in the TB stakes (both graded and listed), as it was going to take too much time to back them out:

TB dirt 155 G1 218 G2 308 G3, 46% of total listed/graded stakes are graded
TB turf 225 G1 217 G2 368 G3 55% of total listed/graded stakes are graded
TB AW 41 G1 45 G2 51 G3 42% of total listed/graded stakes are graded

In real life, the US graded stakes are: 99 G1, 135 G2, 214 G3. So, ideally you have more G2s and G3s than G1s. That's clearly the missing middle in the mixer divisions, particularly the G2. The Appaloosa division really needs some help, in terms of G2/G3 stakes, but frankly, all of them could use some more G2/G3 races.

The other thing I noticed in going through the stakes is that, especially in the pacer/trotter, a number of the G1s are standalone races for both genders, or there's a G1 for fillies, and a corresponding G1 for both genders. So, if you have a really good filly, you have more opportunities, if you have a really good colt that can't quite beat that filly, not so much. So, I think adding some G2s that are colt/gelding only will help those colts get to $350k in earnings. I think this can be done by upgrading some of the existing listed stakes to a G2/G3, and adding a few other stakes G2/G3/listed, to fill some clear holes in the schedule. For example, there are quite a few Saturday cards with no stakes races, graded or otherwise.

So, I'm going to tackle these in order of percentages, which means Appaloosas first. Hoping to get my suggestions up in the next few days, and welcome any thoughts/feedback.
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Ronnie Dee
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Re: Mixer Stakes

Post by Ronnie Dee »

Link of Possible Interest:
AMERICAN QUARTER HORSE ASSOCIATION 2021 GRADED STAKES

I was surprised to see so many restricted (e.g., state bred) graded stakes.
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Tammy Stawicki
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Re: Mixer Stakes

Post by Tammy Stawicki »

Love me some data! Thank you again Laura for all the work you are putting into this and based on her comment in the other thread thanks to the steward for listening to our concerns and working with Laura to help things. May it all work out as glorious as the advent of mixer claimers in the first place and claimer only horse type.
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Tom Lin
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Re: Mixer Stakes

Post by Tom Lin »

Laura. If I understand your numbers there are roughly 20,000 thoroughbred yearlings which is roughly the same number of yearlings of all the mixers combined.
The mixers in total have 138 Gr. 1's. The TB dirt alone has 155. That's not counting 266 for the other surfaces. That's roughly a 3:1 TB to mixer ration. I'm sure the purse totals distort the inequality even greater.
Just trying to get some perspective.
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Laura Ferguson
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Re: Mixer Stakes

Post by Laura Ferguson »

Actually, I can't tell (easily) the number of thoroughbreds. Once you get to 10,000 in the search results, it doesn't say how much above 10,000 it is. I could probably get there through a bunch of smaller searches (running a bunch of searches by state bred and adding up the subtotals), but I didn't want to spend the time. I know there are 10,000 plus yearling colts and 10,000 plus yearling fillies, so at least 20,000 TB yearlings, probably more.

To me, what was more interesting is that 40+% of the SIM TB stakes are graded stakes, compared to 7-17% of mixers. The real life TB ratio in the US is 50-ish% of stakes are graded stakes, but weighted more heavily towards G3s (think twice as many G3s as G1s). The TB turf division leaps out as a division that could probably stand to have some G1s reduced to G2s, but I'm not touching that third rail.....

And yes, the purse totals probably are also different at the G1 level, in skimming through the TB G2s and G3s, less so (most of the G2s are $150k or less, and most of the G3s $100k).
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Mara Jade Vess
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Re: Mixer Stakes

Post by Mara Jade Vess »

You can figure out the total population if you know how to edit the URL string to print more rows of the table.

Here is the distribution, born in Y58:
TB: 28,299
Appy: 4,585
Arabian: 1,951
Paint: 3,924
QH: 5,311
STBP: 2,459
STBT: 2,325

TB total: 28,229
Mixer total: 20,255
Grand total: 48,484

Percentage-wise, this is the breakdown:

Compared to the total mixer yearling population, the breeds make up the following percentages (rounded):
Appy: 22.63%
Arabian: 9.63%
Paint: 19.37%
QH: 26.22%
STBP: 12.14%
STBT: 11.48%

Of total yearling population (rounded):
TB: 58.37%
Appy: 9.46%
Arabian: 4.02%
Paint: 8.09%
QH: 10.95%
STBP: 5.07%
STBT: 4.80%
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Laura Ferguson
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Re: Mixer Stakes

Post by Laura Ferguson »

Thanks for the stats, Mara! I've posted the Appy proposed stakes, and should have the Paint proposed stakes posted later today.
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Re: Mixer Stakes

Post by Jurgen Ver »

Thanks for all that work Laura!
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Laura Ferguson
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Re: Mixer Stakes

Post by Laura Ferguson »

Update: posted the trotters in the Harness subforum, and will post pacers there tomorrow. I will get QHs up sometime this weekend.
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