New Gallop Comments: Peak, Late Bloomer, Progressive ?

[Michael McGuire]

Assistant Trainer

Mary Weather Says:

This horse looks to be about at their peak, but even I can’t always predict the future! - Peak.

This horse looks to be a late bloomer. You should bring him along carefully. - Late Bloomer.

This horse should progress throughout their career, but don’t wait too long to get them to the races! - Progressive.


Does anyone have a clear understanding of these new comments by the Assistant Trainer when you conduct gallops? I'll use a gallop of Allowance with each of these newly added comments to ask what I think they mean, but I would need some clarification from you railbirds.

Allowance gallop with This horse looks to be about at their peak, but even I can’t always predict the future! - Peak: Does this mean the horse is currently an Allowance racehorse and will most likely not progress any further during its racing career?

Allowance gallop with This horse looks to be a late bloomer. You should bring him along carefully. - Late Bloomer: Does this mean the horse could currently be anything from Productive down to Different Career, but at some point, during its career, it will improve to an Allowance racehorse?

Allowance gallop with This horse should progress throughout their career, but don’t wait too long to get them to the races! - Progressive: Does this mean the horse is currently an Allowance racehorse who could progress up to Stakes or Freak during its career? Or is this more of a micro-scale, meaning Low Allowance gallop racehorse who could progress up to Mid Allowance, High Allowance, or maybe Low Stakes?

-Michael

[Carole Hanson]

Well this is new for all of us so nobody really knows exactly what the comments mean (apart from The Steward). But gallops show the ability your horse is at right now which can change throughout the year at certain points (new year, week 8, after first start).

I take it as this:

Peak=At 95-100% potential ability
Progressive=At 80-94% potential ability
Long Peak=At 50-79% potential ability

But I’m probably way off with those numbers, just my interpretation.

[Diane Townsend]

I thought the opposite that the new gallop comments had very little to do with the ability or potential ability of the horse, it was more of a indication of how long it would take for a horse to reach that potential comment. On the 8.0 intro page it had a freak late bloomer so it isn't going to improve from there.
So a (good) peak horse would be the type to win its first few races. A progressive that will win a few races throughout its career and a long peak one that will win a few races once it matures in a year or 2.
Only my opinion of course!

[Dave Trainer]

It doesn't matter what it says, whether peak or late bloomer, if your horse galloped allowance today it is currently allowance.

[Regina Moore]

For "progressive", I'm calling it "normal". (It's problematic for one liking to make brief notes to have two categories that start with the same letter!)

To me, "peak" also means "precocious" -- those horses that are probably going to do their best running early in their careers, and perhaps also be horses that work fast times but won't necessarily race to their fast times.

The "late bloomer" is probably going to take a few game years at least to get a full understanding of.

As The Steward said on another post on the 8.0 thread, while the game won't outright lie to you, there's still an element of randomness, in terms of when a horse can improve or regress throughout its career.

I don't see anything that changes the idea that gallops and these new comments are still a snapshot of where the horse is at right now. I don't intend to train or race my horses any differently than before, considering that I never threw any away before I felt they'd been given every opportunity to maximize their potential.

[Art K Stables]

Well I think the only thing I would say is the gallop comment along with the new comments are still a snapshot, meaning that if the horse says late bloomer at 2, that comment will change at 4 because its already "bloomed", so what I take these comments to mean is if its at its "peak" then this horse is just that and there is no where to go but down, if its "progressing normally" the horse is likely going to stay about where its at and may improve or not a bit but farther down the road, and finally late bloomer just means that the horse WILL improve ( a little or a lot? who knows) The reason I say this is because if you gallop those in the racing barn, far more will say its at its peak or progressing than late bloomer (though I do have a couple of 3 yr olds who still say "late bloomer") so I think it would have been more accurate for these comments to have said, this horse will get better than it is as late bloomer, the horse is at its best and will only decline from this point "at its peak", and steady progressive this horse is solidly what it is for the foreseeable future, I would be happy to be corrected.. so I guess the slight discrepancy I am seeing here is that if a horse is so-so at 2 and becomes far better at 4, when you gallop them at 4 its not going to say this horse was a late bloomer, its just going to say its at its peak then even though over its career this horse was a late bloomer

[Lily Wilkins]

I think they should be taken with a grain of salt, BUT also should be taken, quite literally, at their words...
I looked at a 3yo "Stakes" filly in my barn (G1 winning dam and excellent sire... With no excuse to run poorly) who had two less than stellar starts last season, and she has the "Late Bloomer" comment. I now know it's possible that she isn't a dud, she maybe just needs more time to shine. I think more than anything, these comments are geared toward encouraging us to sit on horses longer and give them more chances. I have heard he Steward say time and time again that many of us don't give our horses enough of a chance and want to base their entire future career off of their very first gallop comment, and it makes us miss out on good ones.

So whatever the case, these comments have prompted me to opt out of selling many of my yearlings because I want to study their comment Vs their career progression over time.

[Ali Hedgestone]

To me, "peak" also means "precocious" -- those horses that are probably going to do their best running early in their careers, and perhaps also be horses that work fast times but won't necessarily race to their fast times.

I have 6 and 7 year olds that are at "peak".

I know horses have precocity programmed in. So if a horse is stakes at 2 but is also a late bloomer, I wouldn't expect it to run at it's best well until it was older.

Anyone find a comment that says something like "Your horse rivals Chautauqua in his stubbornness out of the gate. Perhaps you should seriously consider retirement?"

[Tom Lin]

Well I think the only thing I would say is the gallop comment along with the new comments are still a snapshot, meaning that if the horse says late bloomer at 2, that comment will change at 4 because its already "bloomed", so what I take these comments to mean is if its at its "peak" then this horse is just that and there is no where to go but down, if its "progressing normally" the horse is likely going to stay about where its at and may improve or not a bit but farther down the road, and finally late bloomer just means that the horse WILL improve ( a little or a lot? who knows) The reason I say this is because if you gallop those in the racing barn, far more will say its at its peak or progressing than late bloomer (though I do have a couple of 3 yr olds who still say "late bloomer") so I think it would have been more accurate for these comments to have said, this horse will get better than it is as late bloomer, the horse is at its best and will only decline from this point "at its peak", and steady progressive this horse is solidly what it is for the foreseeable future, I would be happy to be corrected.. so I guess the slight discrepancy I am seeing here is that if a horse is so-so at 2 and becomes far better at 4, when you gallop them at 4 its not going to say this horse was a late bloomer, its just going to say its at its peak then even though over its career this horse was a late bloomer

^^^^^^^
To me sounds quite reasonable.

[Nick Gilmore]

For "progressive", I'm calling it "normal". (It's problematic for one liking to make brief notes to have two categories that start with the same letter!)

To me, "peak" also means "precocious" -- those horses that are probably going to do their best running early in their careers, and perhaps also be horses that work fast times but won't necessarily race to their fast times.

The "late bloomer" is probably going to take a few game years at least to get a full understanding of.

I don't see anything that changes the idea that gallops and these new comments are still a snapshot of where the horse is at right now. I don't intend to train or race my horses any differently than before, considering that I never threw any away before I felt they'd been given every opportunity to maximize their potential.

Wow, this is almost word for word what I sent to a friend. If I could add...
“Late Bloomer” is prone to improve down the line, while the other two probably won’t. I feel it will be interesting to see what happens to these horses down the line with these new guidelines.

[Ryan Whitehead]

I'll just add to the confusion here. lol I had 3 of my 2 yr olds change gallops. 2 went up and 1 went down. Here are the before and after comments.

Y53-W1-D3 Trainer: 'Red Giant Star' sure moves like a very nice horse! Red Giant Star is always looking around on the track. Blinkers would be a good solution.
Y54-Preseason Trainer: 'Red Giant Star' galloped around the track easily! I hope he isn't a morning glory. This horse should progress throughout their career, but don’t wait too long to get them to the races!


Y53-W1-D3 Trainer: 'Empress of Moscow' really wowed me out there! This is at least an allowance horse with some stakes potential.
Y54-Preseason Trainer: 'Empress of Moscow' is a stakes quality horse. This horse looks to be a late bloomer. You should bring her along carefully


Y53-Preseason Trainer: Right now, 'Grand Time' looks like a claimer, but don't despair because they are a solid source of income, and can always improve with racing experience!
Y54-Preseason Trainer: 'Grand Time' is a very special animal. This horse should progress throughout their career, but don’t wait too long to get them to the races!


So 2 had the same comment that they should progress but 1 went up and 1 went down. The other late bloomer comment could hold some merit but the pedigree probably didn't hurt either.

[Glenn Escobar]

Use it on some older horses and it makes sense.

4yos that are at their peak are simply just at the level they’ll likely remain at. Eventually they decline.

Really, truly I would use it as one factor among many. If you want to re-organize how you run your barn over it you can, but as several have said that’s probably not necessary.

[Polk Buffalo]

Well I think the only thing I would say is the gallop comment along with the new comments are still a snapshot, meaning that if the horse says late bloomer at 2, that comment will change at 4 because its already "bloomed", so what I take these comments to mean is if its at its "peak" then this horse is just that and there is no where to go but down, if its "progressing normally" the horse is likely going to stay about where its at and may improve or not a bit but farther down the road, and finally late bloomer just means that the horse WILL improve ( a little or a lot? who knows) The reason I say this is because if you gallop those in the racing barn, far more will say its at its peak or progressing than late bloomer (though I do have a couple of 3 yr olds who still say "late bloomer") so I think it would have been more accurate for these comments to have said, this horse will get better than it is as late bloomer, the horse is at its best and will only decline from this point "at its peak", and steady progressive this horse is solidly what it is for the foreseeable future, I would be happy to be corrected.. so I guess the slight discrepancy I am seeing here is that if a horse is so-so at 2 and becomes far better at 4, when you gallop them at 4 its not going to say this horse was a late bloomer, its just going to say its at its peak then even though over its career this horse was a late bloomer

This is exactly my interpretation as well..

[Katie Stepanian]

I think people are getting quite confused (and therefore excited) with these gallop comments. Having just looked at Dylan’s article, and the assumption that the late bloomer comment means they’ll improve in gallop, I felt I’d give my interpretation. If Dylan’s assumption was the case, then there are going to be a lot of horses ‘improving’ in their gallop comments. But did that many change before? Not as many as have late bloomer comments now, that’s for certain.

The three stages now added to the comments, in my mind, simply mean that the horse will run well (at their gallop level) at different stages of their career. Some will be precocious, others will be moderate throughout and others will test your patience to how long you persevere with them. Not, that they’ll magically improve in gallop rating. That chance, is still likely to be based on good breeding and whatever influenced it before the new comments. Just my thoughts

I certainly won’t be holding my breath on those late bloomer claimers, becoming superstars!

[Danny Derby]

My main take away from Dylan's article is that Dylan is going to be very very very disappointed.