Improvents W9D1 are here one day early?

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Dylan Christensen
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Re: Improvents W9D1 are here one day early?

Post by Dylan Christensen »

Gwayne Mike wrote: 4 years ago
Dylan Christensen wrote: 4 years ago
Gwayne Mike wrote: 4 years ago

Thank you! But let's see if he can first win a maiden race? And by the way his full sister, "Ghost In The Machine" is a yearling.
Looks like he has a lot of hype to live up to! He’s already got a mare waiting on him to retire!
Dylan, I think that's just someone who wishes to remain anonymous, "bookmarking'' him :?:
Who knows but a booking is a booking!
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Ronnie Dee
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Re: Improvents W9D1 are here one day early?

Post by Ronnie Dee »

Pete Vella wrote: 4 years ago ...
The margin was adjusted on the top end which allows a horse to now be considered a freak or stakes when previously it was classified as a high level allowance or stakes based on the numbers.

I’m not saying your horses did not improve. Many of them still could have, but with bigger margins allows for the gallop to display the higher gallop bracket.

That’s the way I understand it.
Bottom line, get excited for the new stakes and freaks, but also try to take it with a grain of salt because at the end of the day, the race result is all that matters.
Are you just saying that if the cutoffs are lowered, a horse will more likely be in a better/higher category? This could be a valid argument for what we see in the latest gallop change data set. However, if only the category cutoff values were changed in the code, the number of gallops changed at the beginning of next year would drop back to the prior levels.

The other simple coding modification would be to alter the distribution of the delta (rating change) variable. With this modification, the number of gallops changed at the beginning of next year would be similar to what we are seeing now for the Week 9 change.
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Lee Tuttle
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Re: Improvents W9D1 are here one day early?

Post by Lee Tuttle »

Thought I'd share this. Since the gallop comments are fairly new, I held onto a few low end gallopers that were listed as late developers.

see if I remember how to properly do a quote....
Y54-W8-D7 Trainer: 'Salsa Night's' gallop looked okay, but I hope to see improvement next time. This horse looks to be about at their peak, but even I can’t always predict the future!
Y54-W8-D1 Schooled in the Paddock
Y54-W8-D1 Jogged
Y54-W8-D1 Galloped
Y54-W8-D1 Trainer: Right now, 'Salsa Night' looks like a claimer, but don't despair because they are a solid source of income, and can always improve with racing experience! This horse looks to be a late bloomer. You should bring her along carefully.
So... In regards to future development....
The gallop(allowance,stakes,etc)... is as always, where the horse is currently.

The above was a 3yo sprint filly. Galloped Claimer and listed as late developer last Monday. She went to solid and at her peak today.
So the comment after the gallop, late developer in this case, just means when the pony will be at its peak.
So if a late developer or gradual developer... it may rise a fraction of a level or a full level or more later when it hits its peak.

The notion that an allowance gallop(or whatever) + being a late developer meant that the horse isn't currently allowance, but will be once it hits it's peak is fully wrong.
Again, the listed gallop rating is where it is now. The comment afterwards refers when the pony will peak. How much or little is the same as always. You'll know when you get there.
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Re: Improvents W9D1 are here one day early?

Post by Lee Tuttle »

Lee Tuttle wrote: 4 years ago Thought I'd share this. Since the gallop comments are fairly new, I held onto a few low end gallopers that were listed as late developers.

see if I remember how to properly do a quote....
Y54-W8-D7 Trainer: 'Salsa Night's' gallop looked okay, but I hope to see improvement next time. This horse looks to be about at their peak, but even I can’t always predict the future!
Y54-W8-D1 Schooled in the Paddock
Y54-W8-D1 Jogged
Y54-W8-D1 Galloped
Y54-W8-D1 Trainer: Right now, 'Salsa Night' looks like a claimer, but don't despair because they are a solid source of income, and can always improve with racing experience! This horse looks to be a late bloomer. You should bring her along carefully.
So... In regards to future development....
The gallop(allowance,stakes,etc)... is as always, where the horse is currently.

The above was a 3yo sprint filly. Galloped Claimer and listed as late developer last Monday. She went to solid and at her peak today.
So the comment after the gallop, late developer in this case, just means when the pony will be at its peak.
So if a late developer or gradual developer... it may rise a fraction of a level or a full level or more later when it hits its peak.

The notion that an allowance gallop(or whatever) + being a late developer meant that the horse isn't currently allowance, but will be once it hits it's peak is fully wrong.
Again, the listed gallop rating is where it is now. The comment afterwards refers when the pony will peak. How much or little is the same as always. You'll know when you get there.
another one. turf sprinter. peaking age 2.
Y54-W8-D7 Galloped
Y54-W8-D7 Trainer: 'Blaque Moon' is a stakes quality horse. This horse looks to be about at their peak, but even I can’t always predict the future!
Y54-W8-D7 Jogged
Y54-W8-D3 Schooled in the Paddock
Y54-W8-D3 Jogged
Y54-W8-D3 Galloped
Y54-W8-D3 Trainer: 'Blaque Moon' really wowed me out there! This is at least an allowance horse with some stakes potential. This horse looks to be a late bloomer. You should bring her along carefully.
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Glenn Larson
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Re: Improvents W9D1 are here one day early?

Post by Glenn Larson »

Pete Vella wrote: 4 years ago lol I feel like we explain this every time.

So let’s say all horses are rated with a number 1-100.
Then let’s say that gallop ratings are based on brackets of numbers.

(These are just imaginary numbers for the example)
1-9 different career
10-25 claimer
26-39 solid
40-55 productive
56-74allowance
75-89 stakes
90-100 freak

Now let’s say the brackets are tweaked to make it seem like your horse has improved when it really stayed the same.

1-9 different career
10-28 claimer
29-34 solid
35-49 productive
50-68 allowance
69- 86 stakes
87-100 freak

The margin was adjusted on the top end which allows a horse to now be considered a freak or stakes when previously it was classified as a high level allowance or stakes based on the numbers.

I’m not saying your horses did not improve. Many of them still could have, but with bigger margins allows for the gallop to display the higher gallop bracket.

That’s the way I understand it.
Bottom line, get excited for the new stakes and freaks, but also try to take it with a grain of salt because at the end of the day, the race result is all that matters.
I agree with all this except that I think the ranges overlap and there are "factors" which determine the comment when the number is in the overlap region. If this is the case, all that had to be done is skew the factors to tend toward the higher rating and "ta-dah" more improvers.... the overlap theory could also explain why there are allowance gallopers that outperform stakes horses. I suspect that there are similar overlaps in all the category ratings, resulting in star mares with better results than some blue hens, etc.... a couple of candidate factors for gallop : training bonus, activated with training (allows young horses to change gallop based on, you guessed it, training), racing experience bonus and maturity bonus.
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Re: Improvents W9D1 are here one day early?

Post by Brandon Schultz »

My thoughts and opinions on all of this gallop comment stuff:

1. Nothing has changed with gallop comments at all, EXCEPT, we now get a second gallop comment that tells us whether or not a horse is at its peak. Gallop classes didn't change. The likelihood of a change in gallop comments hasn't changed. NOTHING HAS CHANGED with the exception that we now have more information. It's what we do (or don't do) with that information that will matter.

2.
The gallop(allowance,stakes,etc)... is as always, where the horse is currently.
Lee is 100% correct here. The gallop comment refers to the horse's ability TODAY. Not tomorrow, or in the future, or when the horse is at its peak if it is a late bloomer. Even more than that, I tend to think that it refers to the horse's "maximum ability" meaning that horses can (and they often do) underperform their gallop comment. That's why we get freaks or stakes horses that can't win. Remember, there are a ton of factors that go into a horse's performance. Some of these we know (equipment, fitness, soundness, weather preference) and some we don't (I won't speculate on those but if you can figure those out you would have a huge advantage in the game).

Some horses are just more finicky than others and it makes it harder to get good results with them. So you might have a stakes horse that gets beat by an allowance in a race, but the stakes horse still has a higher maximum ability, hence the stakes gallop. The stakes horse just performs worse because the conditions (equipment, fitness, soundness, weather preference, unknown factors.....) are not optimal for that horse as they are for the allowance horse.

Also, there is almost definitely some level of "chance". It's a lot of skill, but just like the breeding has a random slide, racing also (in my opinion) has a random slide of sorts. A stakes horse might just be unlucky on the slide when an allowance horse gets lucky on any given day/race. Statistically speaking, given optimal conditions for both horses the stakes horse would win a majority of the time, however, it's not 100% certain that the stakes horse will win on any given day. This gets clouded even more by the fact that a horse can be a top level allowance whereas a different horse can be a bottom level stakes and there is, by the numbers, very little separating the two horses.

3. As for the peak vs. late bloomer - I am starting to feel that maybe these comments indicate the likelihood that a horse improves but I still haven't figured this all out. I also haven't figured out the random bump horses (or if they even actually exist). My thoughts on these comments now that we've experienced our first week 9 change:

Peak = Likely won't improve (unless a random bump event occurs), and may even decline.
Progress = May improve/decline but only marginally (meaning you probably won't be able to see the improvement except of rare cases or in the case of a random bump)
Bloomer = Will certainly improve (but the degree of improvement is uncertain - to us at least).

In my opinion, this also means that all horses will eventually be "peak". Bloomers will eventually "bloom" and then their gallop comment will be peak. Progress horses will also eventually be peak I believe.

I'd love to hear about you all, but my guess is most (or all) of the gallop improvements people observed were on bloomer type horses (and maybe a rare case of a Progress horse). If someone has an example that proves this wrong I'd love to see it!

4. Now when talking about improvements, we need to be clear that "improve" is. A horse can have a huge improvement (solid --> stakes) or a small improvement (low level solid --> high level solid). Sometimes we will see the improvement, either in changed gallop comment or in changed performance, and sometimes the change will be so small that it won't be perceptible. The new comment refers to the likelihood that a gallop improvement happens but says nothing about the degree of improvement. It may be a huge jump or a tiny jump; either way, the improvement happened.

I think Pete's number line is a good way of looking at it even if the numbers are made up.
(These are just imaginary numbers for the example)
1-9 different career
10-25 claimer
26-39 solid
40-55 productive
56-74allowance
75-89 stakes
90-100 freak
A horse can go from a 72 --> 73. That would be an improvement - but you probably would never notice it.

A horse could also go from a 51 --> 75 and you would definitely notice it. It would be a gallop change and a boost in performance. But both improve and we can't know for sure which improve we are going to get until the gallop comment changes from Bloomer to Peak.

5. And my last point - Random bumps. Do they happen? Who knows. If someone has evidence of a peak going up in gallop comment then I would be convinced that random bumps are in fact a real thing. If they are real, I think they are rare and I personally am not going to sit around wasting my time hoping for one.
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Re: Improvents W9D1 are here one day early?

Post by Mr. Lord Rich »

What I noticed about my improvers, I didn’t check them all, but the ones I checked that actually improved all change from a previous late bloomer type comment to now having a peak comment.
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Re: Improvents W9D1 are here one day early?

Post by Brandon Schultz »

Pete Vella wrote: 4 years ago What I noticed about my improvers, I didn’t check them all, but the ones I checked that actually improved all change from a previous late bloomer type comment to now having a peak comment.
I only had 2 improvers (that I galloped) but same for me.
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Re: Improvents W9D1 are here one day early?

Post by Ronnie Dee »

Pete Vella wrote: 4 years ago What I noticed about my improvers, I didn’t check them all, but the ones I checked that actually improved all change from a previous late bloomer type comment to now having a peak comment.
I had a number of allowance to stakes and one stakes to freak. All were late bloomers and now are at their peak.
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Re: Improvents W9D1 are here one day early?

Post by Garylynn Farms »

Of the 7 I had 6 were late bloomers and 1 was progress throughout and he was the only 3yo who went to a freak. My stallion Mozu Ascot had 5 2yo jump from allowance to stakes.
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Re: Improvents W9D1 are here one day early?

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Pete Vella wrote: 4 years ago What I noticed about my improvers, I didn’t check them all, but the ones I checked that actually improved all change from a previous late bloomer type comment to now having a peak comment.
Samesis! Although I did have some stay in their gallop and change from progress/late to peak
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Re: Improvents W9D1 are here one day early?

Post by Ali Hedgestone »

The only issue I have with the Peak comment changing is then I have to go back and see if they were a late bloomer as a youngster. Cause I'm petty sure maturity if genetic.
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Re: Improvents W9D1 are here one day early?

Post by Glenn Larson »

I had an allowance TM jump to freak (over the break presumably)... his comment is still late bloomer
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Re: Improvents W9D1 are here one day early?

Post by Glenn Larson »

The peak comment is interesting. It definitely does not guarantee that the horse won't show a better gallop. I have a 4yo TM who had an allowance-peak comment w8-d3 and stakes-peak w8-d7
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Re: Improvents W9D1 are here one day early?

Post by Glenn Escobar »

Glenn Larson wrote: 4 years ago The peak comment is interesting. It definitely does not guarantee that the horse won't show a better gallop. I have a 4yo TM who had an allowance-peak comment w8-d3 and stakes-peak w8-d7
I had a similar thing to this example. Different gallops, Same secondary readout on Peak.

Moral of the story seems to be, gallop them as they age, they’re not all the same :)
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