Y54 SC Forecasts and Trends

[Mara Jade Vess]

I’ve decided to project all 95 Steward’s Cup races this year. Why? Because I have too much time on my hands and a whole bunch of caffeine.

For the sake of brevity I’m only going to put up speed figure forecasts plus the direction of the horse’s trend line according to past speed figures. I can provide graphs and more data if need be.

For the curious: the forecasting function uses linear regression in order to calculate speed figures. It's not subjective and the scope of it is limited. So, use this in tandem with other handicapping tools available, especially if you’re playing the exotics. The forecast gives a value that assumes the horse will put up a speed figure that is directly in line with linear regression, and that is almost never the case. That said, I do find it helpful to see who may be sitting on a big race either due to being unlucky in previous races or is just “due for a win” in degenerate terms. In short, don't take these as the be-all end-all if you're looking for ideas on who to bet.

Also: juvenile races are going to be on the extreme end to to a limited sample size.

Listed in order of the broadcast schedule. The links go to an image because the forum kept breaking my formatting and it was annoying me.

MONDAY
Steeplechase
Synthetic Mile
Synthetic Marathon
Synthetic Juvenile Fillies
Synthetic Juvenile
Synthetic Sprint
Synthetic Matron
Synthetic Dash
Synthetic Filly Dash
Synthetic Speed
Synthetic Distaff
Synthetic Classic
Distaff Chase
Marathon Chase
Gold Cup
Oaks Chase
Derby Chase

TUESDAY
Juvenile Trot
Juvenile Pace
Juvenile Fillies Trot
Juvenile Fillies Pace
Classic Trot
Classic Pace
Oaks Pace
Oaks Trot
Open Trot
Open Pace
Distaff Trot
Distaff Pace

WEDNESDAY
Image hosting site is down. So I'll give you a link to a spreadsheet instead
Link here. Races listed in order of appearance on the stakes schedule (or just Ctrl F your horse). I'll ty to get the images up.

THURSDAY
Filly Turf Dash
Turf Dash
Juvenile Fillies Sprint
Juvenile Sprint
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Juvenile Turf
Debutante
Futurity
Bunburette
Bunbury
Juvenile Fillies
Juvenile

FRIDAY
Turf Sprint
Filly and Mare Dirt Mile
Classic

If there are any links that are broken or go to the wrong race, please let me know. Hopefully this is somewhat helpful/interesting.

[Dylan Christensen]

These are awesome! thank you for doing this Tamara

[T.D. Palm]

A lot of work, I'm sure; and greatly appreciated.

[Laura Smith]

Whoa! This is cool. Excited to see the Wed/Thurs/Fri numbers. Thanks!

[Rochelle Bos]

This is SUPER cool!

[Mara Jade Vess]

Tuesday projections are up – thanks for your interest!

Some takeaways from yesterday:
• Of 17 races, forecasting hit the winner 5 times for a win% of 29%. None of the juveniles were correct, so disregard it.
• Of 145 horses that ran in the 17 races last night, 29 of them finished in the predicted position for 20% "win" rate.

So, beware of juveniles

[Polk Buffalo]

Hm, I checked the predictions for my racers tonight (its tonight european time) Last spot, Last spot, 13th and 7th.
I really appreciate your effort but I hope that your formula is a bit incorrect

[Mara Jade Vess]

Yesterday's takeaways:
• 5 for 12 for winners on the day for a total of 42% accuracy
• That's about all it predicted right, because there were only 11 more horses it predicted in the right order for 13% accuracy overall

Combined win% for Monday and Tuesday is 34%

[Mara Jade Vess]

Thursday's forecasts have been added.
Because forecasting is wild with such a small sample size, horses with 2 or less starts have had their speed figures roughly averaged. One day I will have a better way of gauging them, so use your best judgement for now.

[Rochelle Bos]

I hope my horses prove you wrong

[Carole Hanson]

Wouldn't mind that forecast on Nevermind

[Mara Jade Vess]

Only completed 3 races for tonight (carpal tunnel had been flaring all week and got to a point where I wasn't making any progress). So I got the Turf Sprint, F&M Dirt Mile and the Classic done.

If people are interested, I can do the other races after the fact just as a "for your information" type of thing. In the meantime, good luck to all!

[Darcy McBride]

Thank you, Tamara, for all of your hard work! I am impressed you got most of it done!