QUESTION ABOUT LATE BLOOMING

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The Harlequins
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QUESTION ABOUT LATE BLOOMING

Post by The Harlequins »

I have a yearling stakes dirt sprinter that is late blooming.

Does that mean it will take 2-3 seasons to reach its peak.

I ask because i have seen posts on the forum that say sprinters seem to down tools as they get older.

Frank
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Nick Gilmore
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Re: QUESTION ABOUT LATE BLOOMING

Post by Nick Gilmore »

Hi Frank...changes in our horses can happen quite quick. They happen as a year changes from one to the next, or as week 8 rolls into week 9, or in the event of a first race. These comments are new, as of preseason year 54, and when a late bloomer improves it seems to become peak.

Remember, not all horses improve so remarks may not change. Or it could take a few years for their improvement to happen. After gallops, the Steward was tired of seeing us dump our claimers/solids into AJ’s barn. This is her way to encourage us to be patient and give them a chance to develop.

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Carole Hanson
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Re: QUESTION ABOUT LATE BLOOMING

Post by Carole Hanson »

It’s not certain when he will reach his peak, it’s different for each individual horse.

Also I think that thing about sprinters losing their abilities earlier. Is kind of debunked now really, there are lots of older sprinters who do very nicely well into their 5 and 6yo seasons.
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The Harlequins
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Re: QUESTION ABOUT LATE BLOOMING

Post by The Harlequins »

Thank you Nick and Carole, i have plenty of patience i am a English sports fan :lol:

Carole hope your still speaking after next Saturday afternoons brawl.

Frank
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Stormy Peak
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Re: QUESTION ABOUT LATE BLOOMING

Post by Stormy Peak »

I had a yearling that was listed as a late bloomer...now as a yet unraced 2 year old, he's listed as 'about at peak'.

I don't trust this latest 'clue' for the horses. I would think a late bloomer would have to be at least 3 years old before it started to show improvement. ???

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Brian Leavitt
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Re: QUESTION ABOUT LATE BLOOMING

Post by Brian Leavitt »

Stormy Peak wrote: 4 years ago I had a yearling that was listed as a late bloomer...now as a yet unraced 2 year old, he's listed as 'about at peak'.

I don't trust this latest 'clue' for the horses. I would think a late bloomer would have to be at least 3 years old before it started to show improvement. ???

Stormy
In some ways, it not different than it used to be. There were some horses that made their jump in improvement right when they turned 2, whereas others didn't even improve until 4 or 5 or older. It's the same here. In fact, the only difference I see is that there are way more noticeable gallop improvements overall than there used to be, which iirc is a tweak of code to more accurately reflect that, yes, many horses DO improve with age. That said, I think an improvement happening right at when they turn two is pretty rare, and I haven't had one of those in my stable since this change occurred. The closest I've had to that were a 2yo going from stakes to freak at week 9 and a 2yo stakes galloping dirt router hitting the track week 10 and blasting a 96 SF en route to a maiden win. Otherwise, basically all of my improvements in this system have happened at 3 and 4.
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Mr. Lord Rich
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Re: QUESTION ABOUT LATE BLOOMING

Post by Mr. Lord Rich »

Brian Leavitt wrote: 4 years ago
Stormy Peak wrote: 4 years ago I had a yearling that was listed as a late bloomer...now as a yet unraced 2 year old, he's listed as 'about at peak'.

I don't trust this latest 'clue' for the horses. I would think a late bloomer would have to be at least 3 years old before it started to show improvement. ???

Stormy
In some ways, it not different than it used to be. There were some horses that made their jump in improvement right when they turned 2, whereas others didn't even improve until 4 or 5 or older. It's the same here. In fact, the only difference I see is that there are way more noticeable gallop improvements overall than there used to be, which iirc is a tweak of code to more accurately reflect that, yes, many horses DO improve with age. That said, I think an improvement happening right at when they turn two is pretty rare, and I haven't had one of those in my stable since this change occurred. The closest I've had to that were a 2yo going from stakes to freak at week 9 and a 2yo stakes galloping dirt router hitting the track week 10 and blasting a 96 SF en route to a maiden win. Otherwise, basically all of my improvements in this system have happened at 3 and 4.
I agree with Brian except that I also see that my horses improve Is when I give/sell them away.

This is also true of my non pedigreed, productive/allowance producing formidable mares. :lol:
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Lee Tuttle
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Re: QUESTION ABOUT LATE BLOOMING

Post by Lee Tuttle »

https://www.simhorseracing.com/horse.ph ... ID=1058718

This late developer guy finally went Freak this last off season.
As he turned 4 and he's a sprinter.

The development jump can happen at any age, but the beginning of age 4 seems to be the point for a few of my late developers.
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Laura Ferguson
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Re: QUESTION ABOUT LATE BLOOMING

Post by Laura Ferguson »

I tend to view the late bloomer versus progresses as a hint as to the potential size of the jump, rather than the timing of the jump. I think a horse moving from progresses to peak may not switch gallop comment, and is more likely to improve within a gallop comment (unless the horse is just shy of the next highest comment). The late bloomer is more likely to improve a gallop comment, or more (unless the horse was barely in that comment in the first place).
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Re: QUESTION ABOUT LATE BLOOMING

Post by Kent Saunders »

My experience (so far) is about 25% of the Late Bloomers upgrade their gallops when they change to Peak. I think I have had 2 Progresses to peak upgrade and no Peaks have improved. I didn't have many improve from 1 to 2 last season (Haven't check this yrs crop yet). Did well at the mid season jump last yr and again at the season change with my older horses. I have to admit it's alot of fun to regallop an older horse and they improve, but it is...lol!
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Te Akau Downs
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Re: QUESTION ABOUT LATE BLOOMING

Post by Te Akau Downs »

most of my late bloomer older allowance TB's went to stakes
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Re: QUESTION ABOUT LATE BLOOMING

Post by Polk Buffalo »

I have a lot of late bloomers, and some progress (since I have a lot of horses).

I have galloped all of them after turning 3, 3½ or 4.
My feeling is that about 1/3 of the late bloomers reached peak at turning 3, 3½ and turning 4 respectively. No horse stayed a "late bloomer" after turning 4.
I galloped a few at 2½ but only a few improved that early.
Most horses improved one level. Some improved from solid to allowance and some horses stayed within their level after peak was reached. I would say about 75% improved one level when reaching peak.

"Some progress" works about the same, happening at 3, 3½ or 4 but the improvement is much less. Maybe about 20% actually improved one level when they reached their peak. (a few actually got worse when reaching peak)



My conclusion is that "late bloomers" means that horse will improve at 2½-4 years of age. Probably is a random slide involved (0,75-1.25) but approx one level.
"some progress" means that horse will improve at 2½-4 years of age. approximately 20% of a level (-0.05-0.45).

On top of this there is a freak chance that horse will improve "at any time". A five or six year old can improve too, but this is rare.

This is not the truth, but this is how I think it works.

(I wrote 75% improvers when blooming out, another post says 25% so probably about 50% might be more close to the truth here. Selective memory on my behalf.)
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LA Pepper
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Re: QUESTION ABOUT LATE BLOOMING

Post by LA Pepper »

I find it curious that we have horses that obviously go downhill in their ability as they age or go downhill in their gallop comment. Yet there are no gallop comments indicating this ie its either peak , late bloomer, or will progress.
Brandon Schultz
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Re: QUESTION ABOUT LATE BLOOMING

Post by Brandon Schultz »

Pepper Carol wrote: 4 years ago I find it curious that we have horses that obviously go downhill in their ability as they age or go downhill in their gallop comment. Yet there are no gallop comments indicating this ie its either peak , late bloomer, or will progress.
I've had older "peak" geldings drop from stakes to allowance.... so maybe that kinda fits the description.
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Re: QUESTION ABOUT LATE BLOOMING

Post by LA Pepper »

But it seems that should be 'minus peak'. ie 'peak' says to me the horse is at the best he will ever be. When the horse slips in ability either by gallop comment or simply just not as good ( ie high allowance to low allowance will still show as allowance) it seems to me it is no longer at peak??? But actually i'm not campaigning for a change - I think we are all spoiled with the LB, Progess, peak decriptions as it is - not real life. (And also not campaigning to get rid of it either !!!!)
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