The Year 55 Arc de Triomphe

[Carole Hanson]

Right now, we have a field of 10

5 males
5 females

This will be a VERY interesting race and might be the highest number of females in the race ever? That is if they all stay in. Week 14 can't come soon enough!

[Stormy Peak]

I wanted so much to put Mal into this race, even though he's just a 3 year old...but it's wet track and he Loves Dry. So, he's in Oz and will give the Cox Trophy a try.

I put Foretold into the Arch, just because she likes pretty wet tracks and sometimes she does pretty good in G1 races, Roughian...has no preference when it comes to a dry or wet track. She's tried herself against the boys more than a few times, and she's won a few times, so I'm still hopeful she will have a real chance of winning that race...even though it's a difficult race for the fillies to win.

Also in the Arc at this point. Four of the horses are Steward bred, and the other six are being run by the owners that bred their own horses, (no owner/different breeder entries)

Stormy

[Nena Olson]

I entered Manic but mostly because neither parents went there as a 3yo and I always wondered 'what if' so we shall see!

[Brian Leavitt]

I thought about sending Kitty Kitty Kitten here, and I probably would have had she won her last race!

On the plus side, she's still not even at her peak, so maybe next sim year! Looking forward to seeing that filly at her peak

[Dan Kauffman]

Here's my thoughts on the horses heading into the Arc.

A Choice of Evils: Won his first seven starts and looked like a world-beater while ripping through the major European 3-year-old outings. Was fourth in the Arc and second in the SC Turf to cap that season, then was a runner-up to Artilleryman in both this year's Saudi Turf Marathon and Desert Turf Classic before running his only real dud of a race in the Gran Premio Carlos Pellegrini (the Middle East-to-South America trip probably did him in there). Won a sponsored stakes at 12 furlongs to regain confidence entering the Arc. Certainly has the talent to pull it off, but a mild longshot.

Artilleryman: Probably the co-favorite (if not the outright favorite), and if he wins this race, will almost certainly be the turf route horse of the year after also taking the Saudi Turf Marathon and Desert Turf Classic. He then ran a strong second in the Carlos Pellegrini, a neck back of Manic, before taking the Worldwide Stakes comfortably. He hasn't run a figure worse than 90 this year, so he's as sure a bet as any horse to be on the board. His sire is Year 50 Arc champion Nightmarch.

Courting: This is a good-looking filly and she sure seems to like the distance. Was on a four-race winning streak (three of them at 12 furlongs) before running a very good third (beaten by a neck and a nose) in the King George Stakes. Dam Queen of Atlantis was the Year 45 SC Turf champion. I'm very intrigued by this gal.

Don't Forget Me: After winning the Year 54 Desert Turf Classic and SC Turf, this guy won't be forgotten. I have some concerns that he's a little bit past his prime, as he enters on a three-race losing streak and had mid-80s figures in this year's Desert Turf and Carlos Pellegrini, but even though he was second in the King George, he ran a solid 92. Won't be a favorite, but if he pulls it off, he will join the short list of horses who have won a Desert Turf, SC Turf and Arc. (That's a guess … I need to look this up.)

Foretold: Can she get the distance? She ran once at 14 furlongs, finishing second with an 85 in last year's English St Leger. Every other outing has been 10 furlongs or less. Sired by Nightmarch (a positive), the dam is Fortunate (won once at 12 furlongs, posting a 91). Who knows?

Hold Back the Dark: I like this gal a lot, and she enters having won two straight 12-furlong Grade 1s (London Oaks and Irish Oaks) with figures of 87 and 93. This will be her first time facing both older competition and males. How will she handle it?

Manic: Was very impressive in beating Roughian to take the Chicago Million with a 95 two weeks ago. Also won the Louisville Bunbury comfortably. Has never raced past 10 furlongs, so will he like the distance? With a pedigree like his (sire is Year 46 SC Turf champion Coleman Hell, dam is two-time SC winner Titanic), one would sure think so, even though Titanic never ran longer than 10 furlongs. This guy might very well be the favorite in public sentiment.

My Girl Lily: She won two Grade 1s — the Indian Oaks and French Oaks — over the same distance with figures of 86 and 89, but was second in the Irish Derby last out with an 83. She had to have been tired, having run Week 6 Friday, Week 8 Monday and Week 10 Monday before the Irish Derby on Week 11 Friday. That tires me out just writing it. Was three weeks enough to re-energize?

Roughian: She opened the season by winning the Pegasus Turf easily, then had easily the worst race of her career, a fifth-place semi-dud with a 75 in the Desert Turf (my guess is the four-week break was too long, but it also was one of only two starts at 12 furlongs in her career). Came back to edge Artilleryman in the Carlos Pellegrini, then ran second (beaten a length by Manic) in the Chicago Million. Her win at 12 furlongs came in the Irish Oaks last year, against only other 3-year-old fillies.

PREDICTION: Manic, Artilleryman, Courting.

[Cleo Patra]

I think my filly has zero chance of actually winning it but I’ve never had a filly good enough to even enter before so I thought why the heck not?

[Nick Gilmore]

Ah, I’ve missed your insights. Welcome back Dan!

[Carole Hanson]

Love the insight and analysis Dan, so good to have you back!

[Dan Kauffman]

I think my filly has zero chance of actually winning it but I’ve never had a filly good enough to even enter before so I thought why the heck not?

She has more than a zero percent chance, for sure. I came very close to putting her in my trifecta, and I would hardly be shocked if she hits the wire first.

[Stormy Peak]

I think Roughian will be in the top 3.

The Gran Premio Carlos Pellegrini was a tough race, as was the Chicago Million - which only 1 other filly has ever won, back around like year 12 or something) so that was a huge challenge - yet she won the first and finished 2nd in the other one.
The Arc is also tough for fillies but more fillies have won it than The Million.

I never did figure out why she performed so bad in the Desert Turf...maybe she bounced after her Pegasus win, or she was rested too long. But other than that, she's never finished worse than 2nd in any of her races. I would be very shocked to see her do worse than 3rd in the Arc.

She has the breeding to go a mile and half, (her sire won the London Cup, Desert Turf and the SC Turf all at that distance, and even though it was against fillies, she has won a Grade 1 at that distance. Plus, she's shown enough quality to beat the boys twice in Grade 1 races and in two other Grade 1 races she finished 2nd to the boys (Louisville Bunbury and the Chicago Million).

So, I'm giving her a better chance than a 4th on down finish in the Arc.

Stormy : )

[Dan Kauffman]

Roughian is the horse most likely to make me look dumb. So there's that.

[Tim Matthews]

Nice seeing you back on here Dan. Wondering where you're finding Artilleryman's 8-week layoff, though. He's run twice since Dubai; perhaps this would change your outlook.

And Cleo, look no further than my filly for a horse with no shot at winning lol. Someone's gotta finish last

[Dan Kauffman]

Nice seeing you back on here Dan. Wondering where you're finding Artilleryman's 8-week layoff, though. He's run twice since Dubai; perhaps this would change your outlook.

Wow, wonder how I did that. I guess when I turned 40 in February, my brains made a hasty exit stage right.

I edited his paragraph.

[Danny Derby]

I low key want to run Yang Wenli in the Arc, but the Australia race looks so much more winnable.

[Nini Panini]

I low key want to run Yang Wenli in the Arc, but the Australia race looks so much more winnable.

Protagonist Story just won a really good edition of the Chimborazo, and he was not the best in the race on paper, so not a lot of people gave him a chance! Anything can happen. You should do it.