This "Expert" Player Needs Some Insight...

[Lily Wilkins]

Okay, bear with me.
When this time of the season rolls around, how do you decide which horses should go where? I have a "problem" this season, and that problem is owning a handful of nice animals that, in theory, could go for their respective Steward's Cup races, or could go into lesser stakes races the same week.
I have never, in the history of my barn, had this many competitive horses (lol, all three of them) and I have major FOMO when it comes to the Seward's Cup, but I am fully aware that a win or placing in the Steward's Cup is very elusive. Logic tells me to go somewhere else, but the Steward's Cup is so fun!

The horses I am trying to sort out are:
3yo F Malicious Mischief - Not hugely accomplished, BUT she is a royally-bred Freak and is coming off two nice wins and I feel like she is capable of more. I'm torn between the Waterfalls Stakes and the Distaff with this one.

3yo F Baby Shark Doo Doo - You know who this filly is lol. I think she could be competitive in the Distaff and be fun to hear in the call, but I don't think she is capable of placing well with her age, running style, and strict 1 1/16 distance preference all factored in. I'm toying with the idea of retiring her this season, so whatever race I choose could be her last start.

2yo F Retrograde - Undefeated, has only raced in Stakes races. If Danny and Jack didn't have their mega-freak fillies (who I assume are going to the SC) in this same crop, I might be like "Um, DUH this horse is going to the SC Juvenile Fillies!" but I'm just not certain if I want to sign her up for a race where I know I'm running for a placing. Is the Gold Star Stakes usually called? Maybe I should put her there?

Sorry if this post is annoying, I seriously would love advice. I have been so wiggy about making these decisions that I almost decided to just lease these girls out so I don't have to worry about it

[Glenn Larson]

First, you can't win it if you ain't in it

I look at recent performance compared to the likely competition. I would send Retrograde for sure, but lukewarm on the other two....

jmo

[Kent Saunders]

Glenn's answer +1

[Andrew James]

I basically just run them all in the SC and hope for a miracle.

[Carole Hanson]

Malicious Mischief-Not SC, somewhere else (maybe save her for some big purses early in the year? When all the big horses will still be recovering)
Baby Shark Doo Doo-Definitely go SC in my opinion. I don't think she's a 1 1/16th horse only, and pedigree suggests the added distance should help. I think she's better than she has suggested since the Oaks. Plus, she wasn't far behind 2 excellent fillies last out. If she's retiring, might as well go for the SC, nothing to lose at that point
Retrograde-Torn on this one, I'd say go somewhere else and save her for a bigger season next year but you never know, she certainly looks like a SC horse

[Paul Sellers]

I love posts like these, because I get to imagine what it would be like to have horses good enough to plan out races and schedules!

If it were me, the only horse I would send to the SC is Baby Shark, but tbh, I haven't won a SC race since Year 27 and I won my first SC with a claimer, so my advice is worth what you paid for it.

[Nini Panini]

These are all very nice horses! So congratulations on getting them to this point in their careers. Campaigning is hard.

Regarding Malicious Mischief, I would probably stay away from the Distaff. I'm very happy that she upgraded to freak for you this past gallop change, but her only run against top echelon horses was in the Long Island Acorn, where she was soundly beaten. Maybe she didn't like the distance, but I would be hesitant to run her back against the wolves so soon after that. Her two wins were nice, but they were with lower speed figures against fields with no standouts. The year end G1's are a whole different ballgame. Maybe she was just doing as much as she needed to in those wins, but I'd still tread a little lightly in putting her on the biggest stage. If the Waterfalls comes up a little weaker, I think she'd be a better fit there than in the Steward's Cup. I also wouldn't look past the Gryffindor's Sword or the Sound the Alarm Stakes if you want to be more conservative about it. That being said, I think any horse can win on any given day, but this is just my two cents. Please don't take it as a slight to her, because she's very lovely!

Baby Shark Doo Doo has been a little inconsistent, but she did exceptionally well in the Oaks at the same distance as the Distaff, so I think she 100% belongs. She beat Korie, Silence Suzuka, Perfect Shadow, and Deputy Dog there at 9f, and they are all elite horses, which is complimentary to her. What's also comforting is her good race/bad race/good race/bad race pattern she's put up since the Distaff. If she follows the pattern, she could run a big one.

With Retrograde, I completely understand your reasoning, hahah. Into the Unknown and Crimson Horizons are monsters. I certainly wouldn't fault you if you DID go to the SC Juvenile Fillies with her. She absolutely fits, but you'd need to reconcile that with the fact that one or two generational talents may be going there. I'm also pointing a filly to the race, and I think we may all be running for second or third. Like I said though, anything can happen! And yes, I believe the Gold Star has been called the last few years. She'd be exceptional in that spot as well, without fear of the monsters.

Best of luck with them no matter what you decide to do!

[Lily Wilkins]

Thank you all for the thoughtful and helpful responses <3

[The Steward]

My advice about any Steward's Cup entrant is this: The Steward's Cup is hard. You HAVE to be in it to win it, obviously. But someone finishes 14th. What is likely to annoy you more, running 6th in the Steward's Cup, or 2nd in some other race you thought you could win? What would bring you more joy out of those options? Is money important, or prestige and a "good time"? It's really different for everyone.

[Stormy Peak]

Lily, I once entered a 7 year old horse into the Steward's Cup Turf Sprint race. He hadn't been doing all that much all year, only won, 1 race, a Grade 3. But I figured he might get me a 4th or 5th place earnings in the SC race, and I thought it would be fun to end his racing career in a big race like that. Yep... it was Fun!

Fortification

Funny too...the only other race he one that year, was The Storm The Blockade stakes. Storm The Blockade was his sire, and he too, won a SC race, the Juvenile Turf Sprint. I remember in that race, that I didn't think anyone was going to beat Soldier Field and figured Bone against Steel and Closet Monster would be in the 2nd 3rd spot...can't remember which one I thought would place which. They were all millionaire runners. My old guy in 7 years had only earned $791,100.

So, like The Steward said, entering should depend upon your goals, or whim, when you have horses that you are not quite sure if they are up to par for such a race. Personally, I love longshots.

Best of luck with your runners, SC races or not.

Stormy