Peaked ?

[Stormy Peak]

Does anyone else feel like there are a lot more of your yearlings and two year olds Peaking this year, than past crops?

I've had a LOT of them...some already Peaked when they turn yearlings...which is bad if you have routers.
By the time they get to be 2 year olds, and get to race Wk 10, their career is about done.
So....I've had a good number of them like that.
But then week 9, I checked a lot of my 2 year old who hadn't peaked as yearlings and many of those ended up Peaked during that week of change...and many that peaked, never upgraded either.

I don't know...maybe I'm just feeling cranky from everything going on with the fires near my home, and having post covid health issues along with my regular back pain. But I'm really feeling dragged down by the Sim lately....just having a really bad season this year. Maybe it's clouding my perspective about the game...so, so, many of my high priced, high quality youngers are looking like they are offspring from the breeding of 2 claimers.

Seems like in the past I didn't have too much of an issue getting my better horses to at least peak at age 3, where I could still compete with them at age 4...which for the turf routers, offers up a lot of nice stake races for 4 years and older horses.
I think I've retired more 2 and 3 year olds this year than I ever have in the past, because they've not earned any money, while late bloomers or progressives...then they peaked...and still after a a race or two are still not earning money.

I love to see them win, but even if they end up as 9 year old geldings and rather consistent at bringing in paychecks, that's fine with me...but wow... I just had a Horrible 2 crops...given the way my 2 and 3 year olds are turning out.

Stormy

[Carolyn Eaton]

I've seen some people post that even one that was "peak" improved in future gallops, and even if they are "peak" - they may be one of those runners that can have longer careers.

I hope you feel better!

[LA Pepper]

'Peak", to me, means the horse is ready to run at its full potential. So I dont understand why its such a bad thing. It also seems to me that horses are ready to retire based on their AGE (and its different for each horse) and not on when they reached peak. (And I also think their 'life experiences ' are involved with how soon they burn out, ie severely lost confidence and such which can happen with a freak LB that isnt mature and is run against mature monsters and looses all the time) So you don't get that bump up in ability that a LB gets as it matures because they already matured. Anyway I have no proof in my beliefs But if I'm right , the the peaks can have a longer successful career than the LB that peaks as a late 3 year old and it ready to retire at late four.

[Stormy Peak]

I have run my 'Peaked' 2 year olds into their 3 year old seasons...and not many of them earned but two or three thousand dollars.
They just can't earn money.

I think a horse has about a season and a half to go after it peaks...but many many of mine are just duds as peaked 2 year olds and I have never seen any of mine Peak, then get better down the road.

Roughian Peaked when she was a freak...and the next year she ran as a Stakes Peaked, and the following year as an Allowance Peak...it wasn't all that bad though, she was still grabbing huge paychecks as an allowance type...but she was definitely on that downhill slope. So I know some horses can Peak and still run. But so far...with my last two crops I'm not seeing anything much.

I've always run my horses, even the different careers and gave them a good chance to earn money, it didn't matter if they won, or peaked at yearlings..etc. As long as they brought in paychecks in a consistent manner, enough to pay their way and make a small profit, I was happy to keep racing them...but it's just not happening that much lately.

I might have just hit a speed bump these past 2 years and and maybe next year it will be more like my usual normal. But I didn't know if anyone else was noticing so many yearling peaks and 2 year olds peaking...but not improving...which I do know doesn't always happen. But for me, a lot of times it did happen, and now barely any of them have done so.

Stormy

[Nicole Marie]

I have more LB than anything else in my yearling barn this year, but I swear EVERYTHING felt like it was peak by mid last year when it came to my now 2yos.

[Cleo Patra]

I’ve been having the opposite problem where things are refusing to peak until 4 or 5. I think some of it is genetic?

[John Smith]

Maybe my troops aren't "graduating," well.. that is, making leaps from late/prog to any next level. Seems a majority "peaked" at level at, maybe has to do with threshold changes making it harder to "graduate," perhaps? Could be just confirmation/observation bias, I don't have any numbers, might could go back and look as I often keep notes of that... but these are for older runners... My 1st crop coming out next year, so no observations on that...

Stay safe and find some fresh air from those fires if you can!

[Anthony Zappulla]

Someone told me think of a scale 1-20. 1 being worst 20 best. The old scale if u hit say 15 you are a freak now u need 18 to be freak. So that would explain why most are not moving up, you need more of a jump in a expanded scale

Also someone says you rather have a horse bloom/mature earlier as to be better then its rivals earlier

[Nicole Marie]

Maybe my troops aren't "graduating," well.. that is, making leaps from late/prog to any next level. Seems a majority "peaked" at level at, maybe has to do with threshold changes making it harder to "graduate," perhaps?

The threshold changing shouldn't change LB vs progressive vs peak, at least not for yearlings. I had a few 2yos go from freak peak to stakes peak or stakes progressive to allowance progressive but the threshold change shouldn't affect if they peak early or not.

[Kelly Haggerty]

I also believe that it is genetic and runs in lines, such as Nightmarch getting a lot of LBs. But I also think that there have been new barns that have joined in the last several seasons that have built really tough programs (Ma Springs, David H. Maria S., etc.). The more really good players we get, the harder it will be for a horse to win money. It makes the wins more exciting, but it definitely gets harder!

[Gwen Morse]

I'm in the opposite position. I have more improvers than I had in past crops. However, I haven't galloped any of my yearlings for wk 9 because I'm still working on equipment.

I hope you feel better, Stormy. The sim is a bit cyclical and you may just be coming off a big high swing with horses like Roughian and Mal. The slider giveth and the slider taketh away .

[Kent Saunders]

I did a quick (very quick) calculation and about 13% of my yearlings are currently Peak. It feels similar to last season for me. I am thinking it's a random thing, some years it's more one way and others it's the other way.

[Nicole Marie]

I did a quick (very quick) calculation and about 13% of my yearlings are currently Peak. It feels similar to last season for me. I am thinking it's a random thing, some years it's more one way and others it's the other way.

I just calculated mine and only 8 of my 78 yearlings are peak, which is lower than I thought (though I think I sold off some claimer and solid peak yearlings earlier this year).

[Leigh Ann Anderson]

Of my barn of mostly routers I have 19 peaks, 43 progressives and 61 late bloomers. I did have a few yearlings go from LB to peak at the last change from what I remember and many more 2 yos make the jump, at least one went from stakes LB to freak so yay

[Ma Springs]

My yerlings are 14% peak. The 2 yo are 31% peak (I've galloped most of them, maybe not all sprinters but they are quite few).

(

...new barns...

How fun to get a mention. And you belong in that "category" yourself - if it is a category - you've had some exceptional fillies lately.)

I also believe there are some really nice TR stallions that influences the division and quickly raises the bar.

You have such a strong family of routers, Stormy. I'm sure they will come back and deliver. Seems like everyone has better and worse seasons...