A Reminder About Your Disappointing Yearlings

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Danny Derby
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A Reminder About Your Disappointing Yearlings

Post by Danny Derby »

Remember that horses are FAR MORE LIKELY to improve now than they were in the past. Don't write off any disappointing yearling you have now until at least the Week 9 improvements happen in their 2-year-old year.
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Lisa Bennert
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Re: A Reminder About Your Disappointing Yearlings

Post by Lisa Bennert »

Was there an official change made, and if yes, when? I haven't heard anything like that, it would give me back some hope, though

Lisa
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Kaine Saracen
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Re: A Reminder About Your Disappointing Yearlings

Post by Kaine Saracen »

Mr. Lord Derby wrote: 1 year ago Remember that horses are FAR MORE LIKELY to improve now than they were in the past. Don't write off any disappointing yearling you have now until at least the Week 9 improvements happen in their 2-year-old year.
Sorry, my stable numbers have ballooned in recent times keeping these potential "improvers" for poor to no positive return. So keeping 100's of horses for a next to zero chance of improvement is no longer on my list. Over the next week or so, anything Peak productive or worse will be retired and dumped.
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Danny Derby
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Re: A Reminder About Your Disappointing Yearlings

Post by Danny Derby »

Kaine Saracen wrote: 1 year ago Sorry, my stable numbers have ballooned in recent times keeping these potential "improvers" for poor to no positive return. So keeping 100's of horses for a next to zero chance of improvement is no longer on my list. Over the next week or so, anything Peak productive or worse will be retired and dumped.
Never said your Peak/Claimer was going to be Secretrariat, but 25% of your allowance or stakes horses turning into a stakes or freak isn't out of the question either.
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Ash Tarasin
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Re: A Reminder About Your Disappointing Yearlings

Post by Ash Tarasin »

Mr. Lord Derby wrote: 1 year ago Remember that horses are FAR MORE LIKELY to improve now than they were in the past. Don't write off any disappointing yearling you have now until at least the Week 9 improvements happen in their 2-year-old year.
How so, Jack Snap, how so?
Why the "FAR MORE LIKELY" now than they were in the past? Was the jumping pattern changed?
Karazhan, Deshaan
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Danny Derby
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Re: A Reminder About Your Disappointing Yearlings

Post by Danny Derby »

Ash Tarasin wrote: 1 year ago
Mr. Lord Derby wrote: 1 year ago Remember that horses are FAR MORE LIKELY to improve now than they were in the past. Don't write off any disappointing yearling you have now until at least the Week 9 improvements happen in their 2-year-old year.
How so, Jack Snap, how so?
Why the "FAR MORE LIKELY" now than they were in the past? Was the jumping pattern changed?
Well Slash Ash, I mean FAR MORE LIKELY now versus 5-6 years ago, NOT versus last year.
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Ash Tarasin
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Re: A Reminder About Your Disappointing Yearlings

Post by Ash Tarasin »

Mr. Lord Derby wrote: 1 year ago Well Slash Ash, I mean FAR MORE LIKELY now versus 5-6 years ago, NOT versus last year.
AWRIGHT!
Karazhan, Deshaan
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Kaine Saracen
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Re: A Reminder About Your Disappointing Yearlings

Post by Kaine Saracen »

Mr. Lord Derby wrote: 1 year ago
Kaine Saracen wrote: 1 year ago Sorry, my stable numbers have ballooned in recent times keeping these potential "improvers" for poor to no positive return. So keeping 100's of horses for a next to zero chance of improvement is no longer on my list. Over the next week or so, anything Peak productive or worse will be retired and dumped.
Never said your Peak/Claimer was going to be Secretrariat, but 25% of your allowance or stakes horses turning into a stakes or freak isn't out of the question either.
I might have been impressed if I was getting 3-4% jumps, but from what I have seen over the last several seasons, anyone getting around a 25% increase raises alarms and just a few questions for me. Your implying that 1 in four horse WILL improve noticeably.
Michael Looker
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Re: A Reminder About Your Disappointing Yearlings

Post by Michael Looker »

Kaine Saracen wrote: 1 year ago I might have been impressed if I was getting 3-4% jumps, but from what I have seen over the last several seasons, anyone getting around a 25% increase raises alarms and just a few questions for me. Your implying that 1 in four horse WILL improve noticeably.
I just galloped 23 4yos who were not already at their peak. They are all now at their peak, and 10 improved their gallop comment.
I also galloped 81 3yos who were not already at their peak. 30 of them are now at their peak, and 10 of those improved their gallop comment.
So 53 immature racers have now peaked, and 20 of them (38%) improved their gallop.
They all still have the potential to jump up in gallop again after their first or second start.

Getting rid of your Peak Productives and everything sub-productive is a fine plan if you're not going to race any of them to find the very few that will jump up after their first two races and you're not going to geld to see what kind of improvement you can get from that. Nothing I galloped which was already at peak (103 total 2/3/4yos) changed.

And it's your life; we don't al have the time to give any attention whatsoever to horses which aren't obviously "race-worthy".

(PS: if you want to send me a list of the claimer gallops you're getting rid of, I might take a few off your hands.)
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