New harness Ratings

[Arthur Cutler]

So the new ratings are here. Which is OK by me. The only problem is that when looking for breeding the Sire freak ratings will be all askew. Especially new sires Starting the year ending 59 and in the future. If you galloped out all your horses you will notice that your freaks have dropped dramatically. That will also show up in the Breeding ratings. But not everybody gallops all their horses they only Gallop there yearlings which will definitely affect the scale on freak ratings. Just saying. Be mindful when breeding

[Randall Allen]

I agree. I rarely ever regallop horses, because it breaks up my racing schedule and is an inconvenience.

[Arthur Cutler]

I agree. I rarely ever regallop horses, because it breaks up my racing schedule and is an inconvenience.

I usually re-gallop and my freaks dropped dramatically. Which is OK because I know who my top horses are and that didn’t change. But more importantly the number of freaks on horses on the top sires dropped. But since everybody doesn’t re-Gallop there is definitely a disadvantage to New sires coming into the game because their freak ratings will be so much less than the veteran sires

[Mr. Lord Rich]

last time they did these changes for the normal mixers they auto updated every horse in training without gallops needed.
Not sure it was not done like that this time.

[Jack Christensen]

I'm still trying to figure these new ratings out. Are freaks still super common?

[Sten Rino Haakonsen]

I have been getting freak foasl in standarbreds every year for a while now and this year not a single freak but maybe that is a good thing
in my main barn a lot changed but several also still stayed freak
think actually more changed from stakes to allowance than from freak to stakes

[Michael Looker]

I'm still trying to figure these new ratings out. Are freaks still super common?

I regalloped 19 unraced, just-turned-3yo, stakes gallopers. Only five stayed stakes, and three of those were ones where their maturity comment improved from Late to Peak (so the fact that they're still Stakes could be explained by the gallop comment threshold changes knocking them down to allowance, but their "blooming" with maturity cancelling that out and bumping them back up to Stakes).

Those three are horses which presumably, without the changes, would've gone from Stakes to Freak this year. Ignore those three, and I had 14 of the other 16 become categorised as Allowance.

13 just-turned-2yo Stakes gallopers ALL became Allowances, with no maturity changes.
15 just-turned-2yo Allowance gallopers are now five Allowances and 10 Productives, with no maturity changes.

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Looking at a couple of first- and second-year stallions who I rate highly, the first-year ones have freak rates of around a third of what I expect they would've had pre-changes. (Basically I think "New Stallion A" is around the same ability as Stallions X, Y, & Z, yet his freak rate is between a third and a quarter of theirs.)

The second-year ones I can even go back and look at what their first-year stats were and calculate the changes.

We're not supposed to share Studbook info since it's just for SIMperior members, but since I can actually calculate them without the studbook I'll share the stats for my own stallion Rock Bottom.

In his first crop he had two freaks and 12 stakes, for rates of 3.4% and 20.7% respectively.
Both of those freaks are now galloping Stakes.
In his second crop (this year) he had one freak and two stakes, for rates of 2.3% and 4.7%.

One of the most popular trotter stallions from the same crop had a bigger second crop yet their number of freaks has less-than-doubled and their stakes count has barely improved. All-up there's an implied ~40% drop in how many freaks that stallion will leave now compared to last year's numbers.

One (albeit with a smaller sample size) has gone from 20% first crop freaks (2 out of 10) to less than 8% with a bigger second crop. This implies an 80% drop in how many freaks he should now throw. I will say that the 20% was untrue and due to the small first crop, but even so there's a decent drop in the freak percentage I'd expect him to throw over the long term (more like 60%, at a guess).

Another one (again small sample size, though I personally think he's a better stallion than the first two and should be more popular) has actually gone from four first-crop freaks down to three in his first and second crops combined.

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To me, all this points to a drop in freaks of around 50 to 65%. There'll be a drop in stakes gallopers too, but it's harder to figure out since you have a big chunk of former-freaks becoming stakes and replacing some of the former-stakes who are now allowances. I think the percentage drop in the number of stakes horses is even bigger than the drop in freaks, but I don't know for sure.

It doesn't look like there's been any behind-the-scenes auto-galloping of horses to gives us correct numbers in the stud book, like they did with the last mixers change, which is a shame.

Also, I'd maybe say that the tweak isn't quite big enough for my taste (I'd like productives to actually be productive, rather than maybe winning a maiden at some point). But it's a good improvement and I'm thankful for The Steward & team doing it.

[Shannon Hunt]

I'm still trying to figure these new ratings out. Are freaks still super common?

To add onto Michael's excellent summary, I had 11 stakes yearlings just before break, regalloped these when gallops opened and now I have zero stakes left in that crop.
Pre-break I had nine freaks in racing. When I regalloped these, two were still freak, the rest now stakes. The oldest of the ex-freaks just turned five and were originally late bloomers, so I don't think they declined due to age.
Still freak:
https://www.simhorseracing.com/horse.ph ... ID=1300648 improved to freak mid-59
https://www.simhorseracing.com/horse.ph ... ID=1195525 supposedly improved to freak preseason 58, but didn't seem to understand that un
til 59... Maybe had a second jump?? Either way, these are the two still deemed freaky. Fast but not world-beaters.

https://www.simhorseracing.com/horse.ph ... ID=1367107 was rated stakes last year, has bloomed and is labeled freak now. She was unusually quick for a stakes so maybe she'll be a freakier freak than the other two.

These two are quicker stakes that didn't improve and remain listed as stakes:
https://www.simhorseracing.com/horse.ph ... ID=1367365
https://www.simhorseracing.com/horse.ph ... ID=1367307

And a significant number of dud stakes are now more appropriately labeled allowance.

I'm overall very pleased with this adjustment, means my one freak yearling is a little bit exciting instead of just a relief that something will hopefully pay its bills. Hopefully it will be easier for newer players to get into harness as well, I know several I've talked to have found it very frustrating that the comments have been misleading instead of being a reliable guide the way they should be (guide, NOT guarantee, I know dud freaks exist in other divisions but they're far less common there than in harness). I agree it causes some trouble with the studbook... Not sure how best to fix that though. Automatically updating every horse means older studs get punished instead for having past-prime gallops added. Maybe only auto-update currently active runners as some sort of compromise? Retired freaks would still be a heavy factor for older studs, but it's something.

[Shannon Hunt]

Okay, I took a closer look, and some of these are funny-
https://www.simhorseracing.com/horse.ph ... ID=1367315 was stakes, now allowance despite running a 95
https://www.simhorseracing.com/horse.ph ... ID=1300125 also born stakes, still stakes, can crack 90 on a good day.

Really highlights how base ability is one thing, but the combination of other factors really makes or breaks a career!

[Tom Lin]

I'm guessing the first one "loves mud". Maybe not. The track preference on the odd horse (mudders) can sometimes jump them up considerably. In years past I had an allowance filly who won listed stakes on a off track but was quite ordinary on the fast going.

[Shannon Hunt]

She certainly does. In my experience, surface seems to affect my mixers a lot more than my TBs, so I've been investing more in weather checks for those. Now if only there were any muddy races in the next two weeks... durn drought.

[Sophie O'connor]

I just bred my first crop of foals, and got this filly, a stakes LB off an A+ cross:
https://www.simhorseracing.com/horse.ph ... ID=1447156

At first I was trying to be realistic and wrote it off as the inaccurate gallop comments for STBs... Then I learned about the gallop change and felt a bit better about her.

Is this something I should allow myself to be a little bit excited about, considering the gallop comment change?

[Tom Lin]

last time they did these changes for the normal mixers they auto updated every horse in training without gallops needed.
Not sure it was not done like that this time.

Would like this to happen. Otherwise it distorts the stud book percentages. The newer studs are at a disadvantage because a higher percentage of their offspring will be adjusted as opposed to an older stud who will have a much smaller percentage of offspring adjusted.

[Ash Tarasin]

Looking at a couple of first- and second-year stallions who I rate highly, the first-year ones have freak rates of around a third of what I expect they would've had pre-changes. (Basically I think "New Stallion A" is around the same ability as Stallions X, Y, & Z, yet his freak rate is between a third and a quarter of theirs.)

The second-year ones I can even go back and look at what their first-year stats were and calculate the changes.

This was a very helpful post. Thank you!

[Arthur Cutler]

last time they did these changes for the normal mixers they auto updated every horse in training without gallops needed.
Not sure it was not done like that this time.

Would like this to happen. Otherwise it distorts the stud book percentages. The newer studs are at a disadvantage because a higher percentage of their offspring will be adjusted as opposed to an older stud who will have a much smaller percentage of offspring adjusted.

I agree definitely an unfair situation to the Newer Sires as their numbers in Producing Freaks and stakes horses will be skewed way lower than the Veteran sires…The newer players will have a more difficult time figuring out what the correct number of freaks and stakes will be…I believe there should be some kind of auto correct