Breeding Insights

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Andrew James
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Breeding Insights

Post by Andrew James »

HI all,

with the intent of hoping we can all help each other get a little better, I thought I would share some breeding insights that I feel I have enough data to statistically back. I am encouraging everyone else who feels they've unearthed something about breeding that they can justify with data to share here :)

But no obligations.

#1

Cyberman appears to be a better sire of Dirt Mile Fillies than he does Colts.
I have bred 49 TBs by Cyberman. 35 filly foals and 14 male foals. Of the 35 fillies, 14 are allowance or better. That is a 40% percentage which is a deviation from his current 29.4% allowance or better. Furthermore I am 1 for 14 in colts being allowance or better. Much lower than his current all around allowance+ percentage. The filly numbers are even more impressive when you take out the experimenting with routers and cyberman. None of those have produced allowance foals. So of the 31 fillies sired by cyberman from dirt miler mares, 14 are allowance or better.

These next are a small sample but 3 of 5 Cyberman-Spread Like Fire fillies, 2 of 2 with California Chrome and 4 of 7 with JV are allowance+ All above his current 29.4%

#2

Benjamin and Thermodynamic seem to match really well with each other. Both are top AW router sires, with Benjamin being 24.8 Allowance or better and Thermo being 26.7. However, when paired together they seem to really boost each other. Of the 14 foals bred by me that are Thermo-Benjamin or Benjamin-Thermo, 8 of them are allowance or better. That is 57% which is almost twice what you would expect. The samplesize isn't huge on this so it could be random variation but they do appear to match well.

#3

Now this one has a real small sample size and could definitely be affected by the fact the mare quality on this cross is higher than my average barn mares. But. So far, Dubai Touchdown is 4 for 4 allowance or better (1 of which is stakes) with King of Kindness mares for me. I will be keeping a very close eye on this cross to see if it continues to produce like this.

I've just started exploring some of my own data recently, hopefully I will be able to add to these at some point. There are some other ones that I dont have quite a large enough sample size for yet but I will mention them to see if others have found anything. Sudden Regret with Wind Against Fire (no one works with my WAF mares except him, 3 for 6), Just An Act with Doctor Who 2 for 3 and a Stewbred on that cross. "Super" colts, I desperately wanted him to be a good filly sire but he's 7 for 22 with fillies for me and 2 for 2 with colts.

Thanks for reading :)
Last edited by Andrew James 5 years ago, edited 1 time in total.
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Rochelle Bos
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Re: Breeding Insights

Post by Rochelle Bos »

Very cool!! Thanks for sharing :D
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Dylan Christensen
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Re: Breeding Insights

Post by Dylan Christensen »

I actually thought about making a forum post for breeding advice so thank you for doing that. This isn’t Thoroughbreds and this could be well known knowledge but out of my 5 allowance Dirt Sprint Appys 3 were out of my sire Hold All Calls who I didn’t use near as much as other studs. Out of the 3 2 were from Beergoggles mare lines and one was out of a Gambling for Guns line. Going through his past foals his good ones are almost esxlusively from Beergoggles or Gambling for Guns lines. Hold All Calls is out of Bear Encounter so one could deduce that these lines mix very well.
yeah
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Andrew James
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Re: Breeding Insights

Post by Andrew James »

Emmie Kay wrote: 5 years ago I’m trying to find successful playerbred horses with Just An Act as the broodmare sire. Not sure if anyone has an insight into this but it would be helpful. Haha. So far the top earners are all Stewardbreds, and then earnings drop significantly after that.
From my own efforts with mostly formidable Just An Act mares, I have 6 that are old enough to have galloped. 3 of the 6 are allowance. Hallmark, Spread Like Fire and California Chrome worked. California Chrome x 2 and Cartographers did not. With SLF already pensioned, I'd be tempted to go back to Hallmark. The other option is to go off the board with something with Father Ralph blood since Father Ralph - Just An Act seemed to work a few times. Maybe a Tigercomesatnight/See/Torchwood type. Good luck, hope that helped a little bit.
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Madelene Gilbert
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Re: Breeding Insights

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Andrew James wrote: 5 years ago #2

Benjamin and Thermodynamic seem to match really well with each other. Both are top AW router sires, with Benjamin being 24.8 Allowance or better and Thermo being 26.7. However, when paired together they seem to really boost each other. Of the 14 foals bred by me that are Thermo-Benjamin or Benjamin-Thermo, 8 of them are allowance or better. That is 57% which is almost twice what you would expect. The samplesize isn't huge on this so it could be random variation but they do appear to match well.
I think you're on to something here.
If you look at Benjamin as a damsire, the Thermo x Benjamin cross has produced 5 of 43 stakes winners and 21 of 234 winners. That's tied for 2nd highest for stakes winners with Wizarding War (who's pensioned), behind D's Tapeta (whose stats are slightly inflated due to GBR restricted stakes). Interestingly, all 5 of those are fillies!
Looking at Thermo's winning offspring, Thermo x Benjamin makes up the largest portion with 22 of 167 winners.
There are only 16 horses bred on the Benjamin x Thermo cross, and most are 2yo or younger and therefore haven't hit the track yet. But my single example of the cross galloped "allowance" with a quick 0:59.72 (5 furlong) workout.

I'll also throw out there that Live the Dream is a great combo with either sire. In particular, I know of 3 "stakes" gallops from Live the Dream x Thermo or Thermo x Live the Dream crosses. Not bad considering a relatively small number of offspring exist (11 and 10 total, respectively).
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Mike Springer
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Re: Breeding Insights

Post by Mike Springer »

Dylan Christensen wrote: 5 years ago I’m trying to find successful playerbred horses with Just An Act as the broodmare sire. Not sure if anyone has an insight into this but it would be helpful. Haha. So far the top earners are all Stewardbreds, and then earnings drop significantly after that.
So here is some info on Just an Act. I bred 79 mares to him and he never gave me anything higher than an allowance. He has 2 freaks both 2 years old and 12 stakes TBs. Of those 14, Em has bred 10.

His 2 freaks are out of a Doctor Who mare and a Together mare.

He has decent numbers, 3 millionaires with his 2 best yet to race. Man was he a disappointment for me and every other player in the sim. Maybe JAA mares will be awesome. Dragon and Pegasus has already produced better for me than JAA.

Basically he didn't produce that well, and if it wasn't for the stewardbreds he would have been the biggest bust the sim had ever seen.
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Matt Feldman
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Re: Breeding Insights

Post by Matt Feldman »

Mike Springer wrote: 5 years ago
So here is some info on Just an Act. I bred 79 mares to him and he never gave me anything higher than an allowance. He has 2 freaks both 2 years old and 12 stakes TBs. Of those 14, Em has bred 10.

His 2 freaks are out of a Doctor Who mare and a Together mare.

He has decent numbers, 3 millionaires with his 2 best yet to race. Man was he a disappointment for me and every other player in the sim. Maybe JAA mares will be awesome. Dragon and Pegasus has already produced better for me than JAA.

Basically he didn't produce that well, and if it wasn't for the stewardbreds he would have been the biggest bust the sim had ever seen.
2 Freaks? 12 Stakes? Em bred 10 of these 14? I wouldn't necessarily say that means JAA was a bust, I would say that means he is a Dirt Miler sire! Breeding decent dirt milers is hard, and while I am not sure of the exact numbers (I'm too lazy to really follow all the breeding results these days), I normally only see one or two freaks a year that aren't Steward Breds (this is from going through the stud book a week or two after gallops start). I don't know why its so hard to bred dirt milers, but I recall Em once mentioning that were no good dirt miler mares. Her definition of good is certainly different than mine, but I wonder if she meant that the mares are pulling down the sires, or if the mares are producing horses that don't bred well further down the line.
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Mike Springer
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Re: Breeding Insights

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Matt Feldman wrote: 5 years ago
Mike Springer wrote: 5 years ago
So here is some info on Just an Act. I bred 79 mares to him and he never gave me anything higher than an allowance. He has 2 freaks both 2 years old and 12 stakes TBs. Of those 14, Em has bred 10.

His 2 freaks are out of a Doctor Who mare and a Together mare.

He has decent numbers, 3 millionaires with his 2 best yet to race. Man was he a disappointment for me and every other player in the sim. Maybe JAA mares will be awesome. Dragon and Pegasus has already produced better for me than JAA.

Basically he didn't produce that well, and if it wasn't for the stewardbreds he would have been the biggest bust the sim had ever seen.
2 Freaks? 12 Stakes? Em bred 10 of these 14? I wouldn't necessarily say that means JAA was a bust, I would say that means he is a Dirt Miler sire! Breeding decent dirt milers is hard, and while I am not sure of the exact numbers (I'm too lazy to really follow all the breeding results these days), I normally only see one or two freaks a year that aren't Steward Breds (this is from going through the stud book a week or two after gallops start). I don't know why its so hard to bred dirt milers, but I recall Em once mentioning that were no good dirt miler mares. Her definition of good is certainly different than mine, but I wonder if she meant that the mares are pulling down the sires, or if the mares are producing horses that don't bred well further down the line.
No he wasn't a bust, but only because of Em. He saw plenty of great mares from other players so that wasn't an issue. I think the Doctor Who cross is the best one so far.
Just An Act with Doctor Who 2 for 3 and a Stewbred on that cross. "Super" colts, I desperately wanted him to be a good filly sire but he's 7 for 22 with fillies for me and 2 for 2 with colts.
Andrew had already found his best cross. Now I love Super as a sire, but I have had the opposite results, I have 2 colts and they are claimer and productive. My 2 fillies are allowance and stakes. I have sent him mostly short router type mares.
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Andrew James
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Re: Breeding Insights

Post by Andrew James »

Madelene Gilbert wrote: 5 years ago
Andrew James wrote: 5 years ago #2

Benjamin and Thermodynamic seem to match really well with each other. Both are top AW router sires, with Benjamin being 24.8 Allowance or better and Thermo being 26.7. However, when paired together they seem to really boost each other. Of the 14 foals bred by me that are Thermo-Benjamin or Benjamin-Thermo, 8 of them are allowance or better. That is 57% which is almost twice what you would expect. The samplesize isn't huge on this so it could be random variation but they do appear to match well.
I think you're on to something here.
If you look at Benjamin as a damsire, the Thermo x Benjamin cross has produced 5 of 43 stakes winners and 21 of 234 winners. That's tied for 2nd highest for stakes winners with Wizarding War (who's pensioned), behind D's Tapeta (whose stats are slightly inflated due to GBR restricted stakes). Interestingly, all 5 of those are fillies!
Looking at Thermo's winning offspring, Thermo x Benjamin makes up the largest portion with 22 of 167 winners.
There are only 16 horses bred on the Benjamin x Thermo cross, and most are 2yo or younger and therefore haven't hit the track yet. But my single example of the cross galloped "allowance" with a quick 0:59.72 (5 furlong) workout.

I'll also throw out there that Live the Dream is a great combo with either sire. In particular, I know of 3 "stakes" gallops from Live the Dream x Thermo or Thermo x Live the Dream crosses. Not bad considering a relatively small number of offspring exist (11 and 10 total, respectively).
This is some great insight, glad to see you are seeing some similar results!
Andrew had already found his best cross. Now I love Super as a sire, but I have had the opposite results, I have 2 colts and they are claimer and productive. My 2 fillies are allowance and stakes. I have sent him mostly short router type mares.
Excellent, that is good to know, I wanted Super to produce good fillies, could be a great broodmare sire if so. I think he also can throw milers btw.

And ya, JAA was definitely not a bust, the dirt miler division is not that much better in quality than the turf milers. I tend to win a stakes or two a year with allowances in it. I tried my best mare with him twice and it didnt work either time but I think that's just because he wanted routers that can mile, not milers that mile. If we'd all caught on to that sooner he would have had much better results I think.

Love the chatter in the last few posts, hoping this kind of stuff helps us all get better.
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Alyssa Lapa
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Re: Breeding Insights

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Who are some good sires for Turf Sprinters?
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Laura Smith
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Re: Breeding Insights

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Alyssa Lapa wrote: 5 years ago Who are some good sires for Turf Sprinters?
You don't want to get me started on this ;)

What's your price range?
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Re: Breeding Insights

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Laura Smith wrote: 5 years ago
Alyssa Lapa wrote: 5 years ago Who are some good sires for Turf Sprinters?
You don't want to get me started on this ;)

What's your price range?
I'm pretty flexible.

I have an Unpredictable mare out of Go Pro by Mr. Foster who is a B- on flat, and a Some Potential mare out of Silk Gloves by Taste My Blade who is also a B- on flat.

I'm not very good at pedigrees yet so this thread is really helpful in understanding why certain horses pair better than others. There's not a whole lot of information for newbies about reading pedigrees and if it is there it's pretty old.
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Re: Breeding Insights

Post by Dylan Christensen »

Alyssa Lapa wrote: 5 years ago
Laura Smith wrote: 5 years ago
Alyssa Lapa wrote: 5 years ago Who are some good sires for Turf Sprinters?
You don't want to get me started on this ;)

What's your price range?
I'm pretty flexible.

I have an Unpredictable mare out of Go Pro by Mr. Foster who is a B- on flat, and a Some Potential mare out of Silk Gloves by Taste My Blade who is also a B- on flat.

I'm not very good at pedigrees yet so this thread is really helpful in understanding why certain horses pair better than others. There's not a whole lot of information for newbies about reading pedigrees and if it is there it's pretty old.
I’m just going to say I wouldn’t breed them, the lowest thoroughbred nick I breed is B+ usually unless the mare has some back class. Maybe link them so others can give there two-cents? But I think your money would probably be better spent elsewhere.
yeah
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Laura Smith
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Re: Breeding Insights

Post by Laura Smith »

Alyssa Lapa wrote: 5 years ago I'm pretty flexible.

I have an Unpredictable mare out of Go Pro by Mr. Foster who is a B- on flat, and a Some Potential mare out of Silk Gloves by Taste My Blade who is also a B- on flat.

I'm not very good at pedigrees yet so this thread is really helpful in understanding why certain horses pair better than others. There's not a whole lot of information for newbies about reading pedigrees and if it is there it's pretty old.
I was able to figure out which mares these are... When you say the mares are a B-, are you referring to the grade given to the mare's sire and dam (for the matings that produced the mares), or to a hypo that the mares themselves have with another stallion?
Either way, anything lower than a flat B is troubling. I don't have a "B+ or above only" criterion for breeding -- I think every horse should be considered on an individual basis -- but a B- or lower usually indicates either a serious lack of quality somewhere in the pedigree or a distance/surface mismatch, which isn't the case here.

The Mr. Foster mare I wouldn't waste a lot of time or money on. Mr. Foster was a wash as a sire, and it's a long way back to quality on the dam's side; the mediocre BSA rating just kind of cements the general mediocrity.
The Taste My Blade mare actually has some pedigree, so even with her poor BSA rating, if you're going to give one of these a chance, I'd pick her. Don't spend more than $10k, though; she needs to prove she's worth spending real money on. There are a ton of options in that range; some are established stallions (Into Space, Tencendur, Puppeteer, The Silence) and several more are newer guys who got caught up in the shuffle of incoming stallions in the last couple years (Come Into Being, The Hearts of Many, Loyal By Your Side... and Weak Strong Heart is an amazing deal for the price.) Look for high allowance or better %'s, ideally from a sample size of more than ten foals.

So once you know what you want to spend, do some searching; what's worked best with the mare's damside? What's worked well with Taste My Blade, both as a sire and as a damsire? Look for patterns, and omit Steward-breds; they're nice and all, but looking solely at player-breds will give you more realistic data.

Don't blow a lot of GPs hypoing horses like this, either -- but if she can't at least get a flat B with a decent sire, I wouldn't bother with her at all. I breed a few flat Bs here and there, with a little success (success in that case means, like, money-earning claiming horses) but like I said, a B- or worse is a sign your time and money are almost certainly better spent elsewhere.

If you do decide to give her a go, don't sit on her too long. Two bad (solid or worse) foals and she should get gone from your barn.

Good luck!
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Re: Breeding Insights

Post by Flizan Hambletonian »

Alyssa, if you are still a new player, you can use the recommended list to find good mares! All the retired (but not pensioned horses of course) for sale that come up on the recommended list are stars or blue hen. Polk and I bought a lot of mares from Jaysman when we were newbies... Oh, I miss that recommended-filter... :)
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