The over- and underrated stallions

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Ma Springs
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The over- and underrated stallions

Post by Ma Springs »

I’ve been looking through some statistics in the stud book (trying to educate myself in my quest of improving my yearling gallop numbers for next year :) “send better mares!”, yes, I’ll try to do that too). Been looking at gallop %, win and stakes win %, sire and BM sire rankings and so on to try to find my targets (weighing in budget and pedigree, availability, age and all the rest of course).

I’m thinking there must be a lot of factors “skewing” the numbers, for example:
  • A new stud that in his first year only has seen the owner’s 15 blue hens and two of the Steward’s mares should have “too high” numbers.
  • On the other hand an older stallion with many late bloomers will have had the time to get some more blooming to freaks.
  • If the new stud only sees a couple of formidables the first year the statistics might refrain any other players from ever considering sending a better mare.
  • A high fee (from high earnings, good hypos or owner preference…) will probably cause mare owners to be more selective, while a lower fee might draw more random mares and sink the gallop %.
What I really would like to know more about is:
Which studs are underrated? Are there any underprized hidden diamonds that produce better than it “looks like”? And are there some overrated, with a higher prize but really “average producing” if they had seen some more average mares? I would love some names! ;)

I suppose this is a quite delicate question… You don’t want to point out overrated stallions and the nuggets you might want to keep to yourself (if it’s not your own of course, it’s ok to mention them too!), maybe there is at least something general to point out (or PM me! 8-) ).

(I once asked my Sami colleague how many reindeers he owned. A first he starred at me, then very patiently explained that is not a question you ask, it was the same as asking someone how much money they had in the bank, i.e. quite rude. I guess I was the “cultural idiot” then. I have a feeling it’s something similar with this topic! LOL I apologize in advance!)
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Cleo Patra
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Re: The over- and underrated stallions

Post by Cleo Patra »

Oohh this is a fun topic!

I think the next big stallion will be Delirium. Have you seen that pedigree? And so far he’s punching out some good gallop numbers even though I’d bet my left arm most of his foals will be late bloomer types.

Light Up Light Up has given me two freaks and an allowance. ‘Nuff said. 25k is an absolute STEAL.

Also Kementari and Man in Motion.

From my own boys I really have to give a shoutout to Nighteyes. He finally had a freak yearling this season where his other 3 freaks all jumped up as 2 and 3yos if I recall correctly. I expect to see some of his sons win some of the major G1 dirt routes over the next several seasons.

Damsires are much harder to get a good read on early enough to get some fillies from them before they pension but I’ll mention Conquerer and Farseer both have freak grandkids (one of which is a Conquerer grandson who won the SC Juvie). I think that the Metaphysical family line will keep popping out G1 winners for a lot more years.
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Carole Hanson
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Re: The over- and underrated stallions

Post by Carole Hanson »

I’ll plug a couple of my boys that I think are more than worth their fee. Satono Moon and Moon Faced. Both have very good gallop stats and sire stats too, especially Satono Moon who really is underrated imo and he tends to produce foals that improve with age. In a similar vain, Moon Faced also churns our a ton of improvers (last year he went from having no freaks to 5 after gallop improvements), and his early sire stats are looking really really good considering his oldest crop is just 4. Both have had some nice support over the years from outside breeders, but both have shown that they can produce very well from the lower end mares too.
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Laura Smith
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Re: The over- and underrated stallions

Post by Laura Smith »

Ma Springs wrote: 3 years ago
  • A new stud that in his first year only has seen the owner’s 15 blue hens and two of the Steward’s mares should have “too high” numbers.
  • On the other hand an older stallion with many late bloomers will have had the time to get some more blooming to freaks.
  • If the new stud only sees a couple of formidables the first year the statistics might refrain any other players from ever considering sending a better mare.
  • A high fee (from high earnings, good hypos or owner preference…) will probably cause mare owners to be more selective, while a lower fee might draw more random mares and sink the gallop %.
I have a few names in mind that I'll hopefully get around to posting later, but I just want to commend you on your list, as these are all excellent points. I'd say that #1 is the only one that's uncommon (a horse that good would likely be noticed by other players besides the owner and the Steward unless he was kept fully private) but the others, #3 and #4 in particular, are very important to keep in mind when considering (or standing!) a stallion. A stallion that is poorly supported by his owner in the first few years in unlikely to ever receive decent outside support, unless he hypos spectacularly well, and the resulting stats might kill his chances as a commercial option.
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Garret Folsom
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Re: The over- and underrated stallions

Post by Garret Folsom »

Laura seems to have covered points 1, 3 and 4.

I'll cover one thing to keep in mind on the second one. A stallion that has late bloomers may not see updated numbers in their gallop results on the Stud Book. If I have a Stakes galloping late bloomer racing at 2 and 3, then he becomes a Freak at 4, the Stud Book wouldn't know because I'd be racing him without re-galloping, so he may be a Freak, but because his last gallop was Stakes, that's what the Stud Book will show.
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The Harlequins
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Re: The over- and underrated stallions

Post by The Harlequins »

I dont if this reply is in the right thread but.

I have a couple of formidable mares,was getting all elitist about blue hens and star mares.

Had a good days results so did a bit of hypoing

Found a stally for 20,000 which i like ....bingo A+...........

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Andrew Chillin
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Re: The over- and underrated stallions

Post by Andrew Chillin »

The Harlequins wrote: 3 years ago I dont if this reply is in the right thread but.

I have a couple of formidable mares,was getting all elitist about blue hens and star mares.

Had a good days results so did a bit of hypoing

Found a stally for 20,000 which i like ....bingo A+...........

i LOVE THIS LEARNING CURVE
Share with us your mares link and which stallion
;p
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The Harlequins
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Re: The over- and underrated stallions

Post by The Harlequins »

It was trotters Andrew , may not be your scene,.....be there or be square lol lol
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Laura Smith
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Re: The over- and underrated stallions

Post by Laura Smith »

Garret Folsom wrote: 3 years ago Laura seems to have covered points 1, 3 and 4.

I'll cover one thing to keep in mind on the second one. A stallion that has late bloomers may not see updated numbers in their gallop results on the Stud Book. If I have a Stakes galloping late bloomer racing at 2 and 3, then he becomes a Freak at 4, the Stud Book wouldn't know because I'd be racing him without re-galloping, so he may be a Freak, but because his last gallop was Stakes, that's what the Stud Book will show.
For sure. Also, some people (*cough* me *cough*) don't regallop their entire racing barn every year, so if they have a lot of offspring of one stallion, but don't regallop them, the stats shown may not match up with reality. This is much more relevant now that there seem to be a ton more horses that are improving a full gallop level or more as they age.
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Mr. Lord Rich
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Re: The over- and underrated stallions

Post by Mr. Lord Rich »

I love me some underrated stallions!!!
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Carole Hanson
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Re: The over- and underrated stallions

Post by Carole Hanson »

The Harlequins wrote: 3 years ago It was trotters Andrew , may not be your scene,.....be there or be square lol lol
Still, would be nice to know. We’re all curious! :)
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Ma Springs
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Re: The over- and underrated stallions

Post by Ma Springs »

Interesting comments. Thank you! Feels good to know I'm not totally off!

Keep spilling nuggets and insights, please! :P
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Shannon Hunt
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Re: The over- and underrated stallions

Post by Shannon Hunt »

Cleo Patra wrote: 3 years agoLight Up Light Up has given me two freaks and an allowance. ‘Nuff said. 25k is an absolute STEAL.
I haven't bred many TBs, but Light Up Light Up gave me an allowance bloomer out of an unpredictable mare. Got his name written up for future use.
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Lisa Bennert
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Re: The over- and underrated stallions

Post by Lisa Bennert »

I recently made a forum post (viewtopic.php?f=3&t=49305) about my stallion Dancin in the Rain who, despite me never really being ale to support him much and standing for a lower fee- so not getting the greatest book, actually has really good stats so far. Stands for 15k.

I would love to be able to give some other recommendations so this doesn't just sound like self-promotion, but I'm not very good at keeping track of things like this. Though, with Light up Light up being mentioned here, I'd like to say that I think Take Me Black is another really good deal for turf routers at 25k.
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The Steward
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Re: The over- and underrated stallions

Post by The Steward »

Lisa Bennert wrote: 3 years ago I recently made a forum post (viewtopic.php?f=3&t=49305) about my stallion Dancin in the Rain who, despite me never really being ale to support him much and standing for a lower fee- so not getting the greatest book, actually has really good stats so far. Stands for 15k.

I would love to be able to give some other recommendations so this doesn't just sound like self-promotion, but I'm not very good at keeping track of things like this. Though, with Light up Light up being mentioned here, I'd like to say that I think Take Me Black is another really good deal for turf routers at 25k.
Holy smokes, this guy has fantastic numbers!
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