BRAT online calculator available

[Wc Lee]

I have received several private messages from people wanting to try BRAT but don't like doing the math.

So, I created an online calculator for everyone to use:

https://simhorseracing-brat.uw.r.appspot.com

You can type as little as the BSF for the Dam and select the sire from the drop-down list and the calculator will compute the BRAT and the predicted BSF starting point (before the Random Slide). You can type in the BSF and workout data for the full 3 generations if you want, but the calculator will work on as little information as the BSF for the Dam.

Please understand that I am only guessing that the Breeding algorithm in the SIM is using the pedigree of the last 3 generations of the progeny as the starting point for the progeny's ability. I am also guessing that Hypo matches and the Gallop % in the Studbook are reducing the range of the random slide.

I could be completely wrong about this.

The calculator only works for Dirt Sprinters right now. I will be adding in the capability for Turf Sprinters this weekend. And the other Dirt and Turf types in the future weeks.

Let me know if you have any problems.

[Kelly Haggerty]

Nailed the BSF prediction for Homeward Arizona. This is a fun tool.

One question I have been wondering about is doesn't the underlying data get skewed because SF are available for only a fraction of the distribution, since anything with a gallop below allowance is apt to be retired (missing the left tail of a normal distribution) and fillies are generally retired earlier anyway, maybe before we know their BSF potential? Apologies if you have answered this, I haven't read about your methodology so I could be off base. Still, something is better than nothing and this, like I said, is fun.

[Wc Lee]

Yes, you are correct. I only can analyze what is observable. I am only able to observe horses that actually ran in a race between Y59 to Y62. So if there is an unraced horse with a poor workout time or a potentially poor BSF, I cannot include that horse in the study.

What that could do is make the random slide even bigger than what my results show and make the actual BSF be more negatively biased to the progeny.

It also makes the Steward's breeding that more impressive.

[John Smith]

Thanks for these… i look forward to the TR/DR and miler “equation” articles

[Andrea Bouwkamp]

Thanks for these… i look forward to the TR/DR and miler “equation” articles

For the turf milers I hope the workout times are for 4F on turf. I have a couple nice mares here and never worked them at 2 or 3 furlongs.

[Wc Lee]

Yes,

Sprinters 3F (calculator will convert 2F times to 3F)
Milers 4F
Routers 5F (calculator may convert 6F & 7F to 5F, I don't know yet, have not gotten that far)

[Lisa Bennert]

What does BRAT mean?

[Ronnie Dee]

What does BRAT mean?

This article really helped me understand what BRAT means --
https://www.simhorseracing.com/featurer ... leID=19239

[Lisa Bennert]

What does BRAT mean?

This article really helped me understand what BRAT means --
https://www.simhorseracing.com/featurer ... leID=19239

Thank you!