I'm a new player and still trying to figure out some of the nuances of this SIM. The articles out there have been excellent and have helped to clarify a lot of things (special props to Regina Moore, but thanks to all for the awesome articles). I have a few questions though regarding aging and impact on speed/performance that I can't seem to find much information.
1) Is there a typical aging curve? Has anybody analyzed this? From the best I can tell, it seems most horses (I focus on TB) reach their maximum performance pretty quickly during Year 2. This is particularly evident in workout times that don't seem to improve after 2 years, but also seems to be a rough trend in race times also (though I have not studied in great detail). After that it seems to vary significantly from horse to horse on how long they can maintain at that level. Some horses start dropping off as early as Age 4 and some seem to be able to maintain at that level until 6+ years old. Am I seeing this correctly? Would love to see any analysis or explanation here.
2) As a horse ages, will a recent Gallop indicate whether that horse has started to decline in performance? I remember reading that Gallop comments reflects that horses current ability and not potential. Does that mean has a horse declines with age, so will the the Gallop comments?
Appreciate any input here.
Thanks!
Newbie Questions on Aging
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Regina Moore
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Re: Newbie Questions on Aging
I'm no help with any role that workouts might play in aging.
I will say that all horses are different in terms of when they "go bad" and pedigree can influence this. A horse with parents that ran best at, say, 4yo+, will likely be a horse that also shows its best at 4yo+. Of course, sometimes it's hard to analyze exactly when a horse is at its best. The horse might not necessarily be winning because its getting beat by better horses. And if most of those better horses aren't around the next season because they retired, then the subject horse might have a better year, even though he's not any faster than he was before.
In my experience, sprinters GENERALLY go bad at younger ages than milers and routers. And turf horses GENERALLY have more longevity than dirt horses in the same distance category. But you can always find exceptions to those generalizations.
The gallop may or may not reflect a horse's increase or decrease in performance. I don't know what the gallop scale is, but say that a horse's general ability goes from zero to 20.00, with 20.00 being the best horse that the SIM can possibly produce. So, pretend that a 19.25 to 20.00 horse is a freak, and a 18.75 to 19.24 horse is a stakes, and a 16.50 to to 18.74 is an allowance, etc. (Again, I'm just making these numbers up.)
So, you have a horse born with a 16.90 ability number, so he gallops allowance. Say, at the beginning of his 3yo season, his number jumps to 18.90. Now, he falls into the stakes bucket. So, when you gallop him at three you know he improved.
But say you take that same horse, and at the beginning of his 3yo year his number goes to 18.50. He's a better horse, but he's still allowance, because his better number still falls into the allowance bracket. So, just from galloping him you aren't going to know that he's better than he was.
A lot of times a horse will "go bad" -- and suddenly start finishing poorly in races -- but still gallop the same as before.
I'm a big believer in racing horses to know how good they are. All the other things -- workouts, gallops, etc -- can be fun to play with, but performance on the track is the true acid test at any point in a horse's career.
Bottom line, the SIM does a remarkable job of reflecting real life in that all horses are individuals. There aren't many aspects of it where you can follow a hard rule for all your horses, but instead just be aware of certain guidelines that are usually true.
I will say that all horses are different in terms of when they "go bad" and pedigree can influence this. A horse with parents that ran best at, say, 4yo+, will likely be a horse that also shows its best at 4yo+. Of course, sometimes it's hard to analyze exactly when a horse is at its best. The horse might not necessarily be winning because its getting beat by better horses. And if most of those better horses aren't around the next season because they retired, then the subject horse might have a better year, even though he's not any faster than he was before.
In my experience, sprinters GENERALLY go bad at younger ages than milers and routers. And turf horses GENERALLY have more longevity than dirt horses in the same distance category. But you can always find exceptions to those generalizations.
The gallop may or may not reflect a horse's increase or decrease in performance. I don't know what the gallop scale is, but say that a horse's general ability goes from zero to 20.00, with 20.00 being the best horse that the SIM can possibly produce. So, pretend that a 19.25 to 20.00 horse is a freak, and a 18.75 to 19.24 horse is a stakes, and a 16.50 to to 18.74 is an allowance, etc. (Again, I'm just making these numbers up.)
So, you have a horse born with a 16.90 ability number, so he gallops allowance. Say, at the beginning of his 3yo season, his number jumps to 18.90. Now, he falls into the stakes bucket. So, when you gallop him at three you know he improved.
But say you take that same horse, and at the beginning of his 3yo year his number goes to 18.50. He's a better horse, but he's still allowance, because his better number still falls into the allowance bracket. So, just from galloping him you aren't going to know that he's better than he was.
A lot of times a horse will "go bad" -- and suddenly start finishing poorly in races -- but still gallop the same as before.
I'm a big believer in racing horses to know how good they are. All the other things -- workouts, gallops, etc -- can be fun to play with, but performance on the track is the true acid test at any point in a horse's career.
Bottom line, the SIM does a remarkable job of reflecting real life in that all horses are individuals. There aren't many aspects of it where you can follow a hard rule for all your horses, but instead just be aware of certain guidelines that are usually true.