How Fast Could Dr.Fager Be

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Nathan Klein
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How Fast Could Dr.Fager Be

Post by Nathan Klein »

I probably failed to account for a lot of things so don't take this verbatim as 100% fact just enjoy me trying and most likely failing to calculate how fast Dr.* is.


So most of us know of Dr.*'s world record performance in the Washington Park Handicap where he ran the 1 mile race in 1:32.2 seconds. Whats more impressive is that this record has remained for 52 years and he did it while carrying 134 pounds. So that brings up the question how much faster could he have run if he had been given a better weight. Well i'm gonna try and do that today. I ain't a mathematician but I have enough love for the sport that i'm willing to try.

Now I think we've heard something along the lines of "every extra pound a horse carries it will run a mile race 1 length slower." For the sake of simplicity lets say this is in fact true. The thing that makes this even easier is the race was ran at exactly 1 mile so we don't need to modify it. The other thing i'm doing for simplicity is making his new weight 126 pounds or Weight For Age. So how much faster could he run with 8 pounds taken off. Well to do that we need to figure out how much is a horse length. On Twinspires.com https://www.twinspires.com/blog/2015/6/ ... lue-length
they assumed a horse to be 10 feet long and made an equation that went like this "VALUE OF A LENGTH (in seconds) = 1 ÷ [RACE DISTANCE (in feet) ÷ RACE TIME (in seconds) ÷ 10]"

This would help determine how many lengths is in a second. They used American Pharoah's Preakness as an example

American Pharoah's Preakness

Winning Time(in seconds):118.46
Distance (in feet):6,270
Feet Per Second:52.9
Value of a length (in seconds):5.3

Basically this mean if American Pharoah carried 5.3 pounds less his time would go down by a second. Now lets do this on Dr.*

Winning Time(in seconds):90.2
Distance (in feet):5280
Feet Per Second: 57.267
Value of a length (in seconds):5.73

So now we apply the whole Handicap part. If we take away 5.73 pounds from Dr.* he'll run the race a whole second faster. So how much faster can he run if carries 8 less pounds and runs weight for age. Well if my calculations are correct he would run the mile at about 1:30.80. I could easily be wrong but if this is true that would make Dr.* even more amazing then he already is.
"Nathan you tweaking"
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Nathan Klein
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Re: How Fast Could Dr.Fager Be

Post by Nathan Klein »

TLDR:Dr.* could possibly run a mile in 1:30.8 if he was given Weight For Age.
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Nini Panini
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Re: How Fast Could Dr.Fager Be

Post by Nini Panini »

I'm of the opinion The Good Doctor was the fastest horse to ever live. Don't @ me.
"How do you describe perfection? Why try, let's just watch her run!"
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Nini Panini
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Re: How Fast Could Dr.Fager Be

Post by Nini Panini »

I'm still thinking about this and I also very much believe it's worth noting that he won this race in hand. So, say he runs with a weight-for-age impost while also being urged. Just thinking about it is scary. Sub 1:30? Yeah, I think so, but that's just me. We'll never know!
"How do you describe perfection? Why try, let's just watch her run!"
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