The Derby Draw was rigged?

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Jack Christensen
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The Derby Draw was rigged?

Post by Jack Christensen »

That's kind of a joke, but come on people. The three favorites get the three outside posts. Which, with the new gate, are seemingly the best post positions. Maybe a stretch with the conspiracy theory, but I do want your all's opinions on the draw, and who do you think benefited from the post they got, and who got screwed.
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses
There's a link to kentuckyderby.com, It shows post positions and odds toward the top of your computer screen. You can scroll side to side to see them all.
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Gwayne's World
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Re: The Derby Draw was rigged?

Post by Gwayne's World »

You're supposed to use that excuse AFTER losing your bet :lol:

Besides with no one in attendance, who's gonna notice?
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Jack Christensen
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Re: The Derby Draw was rigged?

Post by Jack Christensen »

Gwayne Mike wrote: 3 years ago You're supposed to use that excuse AFTER losing your bet :lol:

Besides with no one in attendance, who's gonna notice?
It wasn't necessarily an preemptive excuse for losing my bet, more a little bit of frustration at the fact that the three favorites got nearly perfect posts. Authentic, who seems to be the speed, who also, in my opinion looks like he'll have trouble getting the mile and quarter, got the outermost post, thus giving him the cleanest break and probably the best path to the lead. Tiz the Law, who already has the running style that most horses who win the derby have, got the perfect post position for his style. And Honor A.P., is also going to be able to avoid most traffic. It is less of an excuse for why I lost my bet, and just anger that it looks like its going to be too chalky to make money on. It would have been nice to see Tiz the Law get the 1 hole or something dramatic so we had some room to debate the winner. It looks like Tiz the Law is going to win and Honor A.P. will close for second, and the $1 Exacta will pay $3.80.
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Dylan Christensen
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Re: The Derby Draw was rigged?

Post by Dylan Christensen »

How is drawing the 18th post position better than drawing the third? Even if a horse somehow gets out to an uncontested lead right off the bat from the 3 hole they’ll be able to move maybe a few feet over to get to the rail. From the 18 hole you’ll have the same amount of horses on either side of you just flipped but you have to move a long ways in towards the rail to get on the rail by the turn. When a horse is moving diagonally it won’t be going as fast for obvious reasons. So from the 18 hole they have to travel a further distance and exert much more energy just to get in the same position that horse in the 3 hole got.
yeah
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Mara Jade Vess
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Re: The Derby Draw was rigged?

Post by Mara Jade Vess »

Jack Christensen wrote: 3 years ago
Gwayne Mike wrote: 3 years ago You're supposed to use that excuse AFTER losing your bet :lol:

Besides with no one in attendance, who's gonna notice?
It wasn't necessarily an preemptive excuse for losing my bet, more a little bit of frustration at the fact that the three favorites got nearly perfect posts. Authentic, who seems to be the speed, who also, in my opinion looks like he'll have trouble getting the mile and quarter, got the outermost post, thus giving him the cleanest break and probably the best path to the lead.
This is just straight up not true. My racehorses in real life are front runners. Drawing wide is a death sentence for them because they need a perfect break and everyone needs to hang back for them to clear the field before the turn, and they run in 10-11 horse fields, not 18. If Authentic does not break sharp, the race is lost immediately. Front runners are best drawn in the Derby 6-10 because they do not have to deal with the rail situation, will have fewer horses to clear, and can hold a a path off of the rail easier (see: Justify and Maximum Security, who both crossed the wire first after being very close to the lead or on the lead the majority of the race and both had post 7).

There is a reason why post 16, 17, and 18 have a combined 6 winners from 122 starts and the trainers who draw them usually are not happy. They are not desirable for anyone, even with the auxiliary gate not in use anymore.

That said, Tiz the Law should be able to win this regardless of post position.
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Nena Olson
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Re: The Derby Draw was rigged?

Post by Nena Olson »

Tiz The Law is going to win this anyway so it doesn't matter lol
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Jack Christensen
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Re: The Derby Draw was rigged?

Post by Jack Christensen »

Dylan Christensen wrote: 3 years ago How is drawing the 18th post position better than drawing the third? Even if a horse somehow gets out to an uncontested lead right off the bat from the 3 hole they’ll be able to move maybe a few feet over to get to the rail. From the 18 hole you’ll have the same amount of horses on either side of you just flipped but you have to move a long ways in towards the rail to get on the rail by the turn. When a horse is moving diagonally it won’t be going as fast for obvious reasons. So from the 18 hole they have to travel a further distance and exert much more energy just to get in the same position that horse in the 3 hole got.
18 gets a clean trip whereas the 3 is forced to go or drop out and hope to negotiate a trip from way out of it. 3 has no choice. And horses take more pressure on the inside. Authentic from the 18 post could either go to the front or sit right off, all while getting a clean trip. He avoids traffic, and sits relaxed. Any horse out of the inside three holes has to go, which takes more out of a horse to rush them out of the gate than it does to move a relaxed horse over. Also, inside horses that go to the front get outside pressure which doesn't allow them to breath as easily. That's why outside speed is always better than inside speed
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Gwayne's World
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Re: The Derby Draw was rigged?

Post by Gwayne's World »

Any horse, on the lead or within three lengths at the first call, 1/2 mile, will likely be the winner.

At the mile marker, the field will have sorted itself out and the horse with the best trip will prevail.

Who will that be?

3/5 ain't for me!
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Cleo Patra
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Re: The Derby Draw was rigged?

Post by Cleo Patra »

American post position biases completely baffle me. I’m a jockey in Australia and the only time you ever want an outside gate here is on a sand track or if you’re racing on a bog track after race 2 or 3 when they’ve really cut up the inside running. I’ve calculated a few of our tracks and a runner travelling 3 wide the trip will go at least 10 metres further than the horse on the fence. So if you get caught 3 wide and get beaten less than 1.5 lengths, your trainer and connections probably want to punch you because you would have won if you’d exerted the same effort closer to the rail (aka travelled less distance).

Is it a dirt thing?
Is it because USA races can usually have a truck driven between the horses while we race nearly stacked on top of one another?

🤷‍♀️ One day I’ll have to fly over and ride in some races there and find out!
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Gwayne's World
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Re: The Derby Draw was rigged?

Post by Gwayne's World »

Cleo Patra wrote: 3 years ago American post position biases completely baffle me. I’m a jockey in Australia and the only time you ever want an outside gate here is on a sand track or if you’re racing on a bog track after race 2 or 3 when they’ve really cut up the inside running. I’ve calculated a few of our tracks and a runner travelling 3 wide the trip will go at least 10 metres further than the horse on the fence. So if you get caught 3 wide and get beaten less than 1.5 lengths, your trainer and connections probably want to punch you because you would have won if you’d exerted the same effort closer to the rail (aka travelled less distance).

Is it a dirt thing?
Is it because USA races can usually have a truck driven between the horses while we race nearly stacked on top of one another?

🤷‍♀️ One day I’ll have to fly over and ride in some races there and find out!
We're a bunch of wimps, Cleo :lol:
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Gwayne's World
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Re: The Derby Draw was rigged?

Post by Gwayne's World »

P.S. Cleo, Pat Day and Pat Valenzuela have long since retired!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJjJphmr10s
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Nena Olson
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Re: The Derby Draw was rigged?

Post by Nena Olson »

This year is the first year that the new 20 horse stall gate will be used so i wonder how that will effect things. Usually there is a big gap in the middle where the auxiliary gate was but not this time.
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Jack Christensen
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Re: The Derby Draw was rigged?

Post by Jack Christensen »

Nena Olson wrote: 3 years ago This year is the first year that the new 20 horse stall gate will be used so i wonder how that will effect things. Usually there is a big gap in the middle where the auxiliary gate was but not this time.
It makes the outside horses farther from the outside and the inside horses farther from the rail, it's supposed to allow for a more fair race.
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