Kentucky Derby Prep Replays

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Louise Bayou
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Re: Kentucky Derby Prep Replays

Post by Louise Bayou »

My thoughts about the Derby winner...

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Andrew Chillin
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Re: Kentucky Derby Prep Replays

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Louise Bayou wrote: 2 years ago My thoughts about the Derby winner...

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💉
;p
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Nena Olson
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Re: Kentucky Derby Prep Replays

Post by Nena Olson »

Medina Spirit has so much heart. He gives 100% every single time. He reminds me of Real Quiet. Was over shadowed by Indian Charlie and in the end pulled it off.
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Carole Hanson
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Re: Kentucky Derby Prep Replays

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Medina Spirit would have been a really cool story if he wasn't trained by Baffert. As it is, can't trust that the horse wasn't juiced up when Baffert has had drug violations on 2 of his Derby winners and another one on his champion 3yo filly Gamine, and the sport has done nothing to punish him for it. So if he isn't getting punished when cheating on the biggest stage, of course he'll keep doing it. Simply can't enjoy horses trained by him because there's always a question of how real that performance was.
LA Pepper
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Re: Kentucky Derby Prep Replays

Post by LA Pepper »

..

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[/quote]

So EXACTLY my thought too !!!
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Ronnie Dee
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Re: Kentucky Derby Prep Replays

Post by Ronnie Dee »

I only play the races occasionally now. In big races, I look at the free Brisnet past performances available for the top trainers such as Baffert, Pletcher, etc. To minimize time and effort, I use the "class summaries" -- Current Class, Average Class Last 3, and Prime Power. For races where an entry is running an unfamiliar distance or surface than previously run, Current Class is not computed. For contender selection, use within 2 points of the best for the first 2 measures and within 10 points of the best for the third measure. This simple and quick handicapping approach has been around for 30+ years (note: before Prime Power existed, Average Competitive (Class) Level was in the summary). Of course, this approach was only recommended for big races because it strongly emphasizes class.

For the Kentucky Derby, the class summaries directed you to either bet Essential Quality or dutch Medina Spirit and Highly Motivated. If one was playing exactas, you would box these 3 with extra tickets having Essential Quality on top. For trifecta and superfecta plays, Hot Rod Charlie, Rock Your World, and Madaloun would be added to your tickets. Dutching produced the winner but the exacta was lost. I rarely play trifectas and superfectas but either 20 combinations (1x5x4) or 60 combinations (3x5x4) would be needed to play the trifecta and 60 combinations (1x5x4x3) or 180 combinations (3x5x4x3) would be needed to play using this approach. In both cases, the smaller ticket would have lost and the larger ticket would have won.

Average Class Last 3 (Derby)
120.8 Essential Quality
120.2 Highly Motivated
119.8 Hot Rod Charlie
119.4 Medina Spirit

Prime Power (Derby)
152.6 Essential Quality
148.9 Medina Spirit
147.4 Highly Motivated
145.4 Rock Your World
143.5 Mandaloun

In the Kentucky Oaks, the "class summaries" directed me to bet Malathaat (5/2) to win. I assessed her chances at 40% (3/2) so she was an overlay,

Current Class (Oaks)
120.8 Malathaat
120.7 Pass the Champagne
119.6 Travel Column

Average Class Last 3 (Oaks)
121.1 Malathaat
119.7 Travel Column

Prime Power (Oaks)
143.2 Search Results
142.2 Malathaat
140.7 Travel Column
137.1 Clairiere
136.9 Pass the Champagne
135.8 Pauline's Pearl
134.0 Crazy Beautiful
133.9 Moraz
133.7 Millefeuille
133.5 Will's Secret

I suspect that this very old handicapping approach was just lucky in the Derby and Oaks. But I was very amused that this approach that has been around for so long (and probably forgotten by most) did so well in this year's Derby and Oaks.

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LA Pepper
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Re: Kentucky Derby Prep Replays

Post by LA Pepper »

OMG. So much easier to just pick a cute name !!! Mine was Sainthood, BTW, where did HE end up ?1 :D
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Rochelle Bos
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Re: Kentucky Derby Prep Replays

Post by Rochelle Bos »

Pepper Carol wrote: 2 years ago OMG. So much easier to just pick a cute name !!! Mine was Sainthood, BTW, where did HE end up ?1 :D
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