Curlin

Chris Carman · Post by **Chris Carman** » 17 years ago

Curlin is my top choice for the Derby.

John Slotmon · Post by **John Slotmon** » 17 years ago

I'm curious - which long-standing Kentucky Derby trend will Curlin buck in your opinion:

No Kentucky Derby winner was unraced as a 2YO since 1882

- or -

No Kentucky Derby winner has won the race with fewer than five career starts since 1918

I'll be honest here, I think Curlin's a decent horse, but if this isn't Bellamy Road redux, I don't know what is. He might win, but he'll be bucking a bunch of trends if he does and I know I won't be betting him.

Josh Dutzy · Post by **Josh Dutzy** » 17 years ago

J Slotman wrote: This year's crop is a bunch of nags.

So you're saying you wouldn't love to own one of these nags, or be associated with one of these nags? Give me a break...these horses go out and run for YOUR entertainment pleasure....the least you could do is respect them.....

As far as a horse like Curlin, it's only a matter of time that an inexperienced, extremely fast horse will win the Derby. Is this year the year? I don't know

John Slotmon · Post by **John Slotmon** » 17 years ago

Josh Dutzy wrote:
J Slotman wrote: This year's crop is a bunch of nags.
So you're saying you wouldn't love to own one of these nags, or be associated with one of these nags? Give me a break...these horses go out and run for YOUR entertainment pleasure....the least you could do is respect them.....

Wow. I see we're in attack mode tonight.

I won't make a response to such an obvious attack other than to say of course I'd love to be associated with any horse being considered for the Derby. Period. My association with a particular horse wouldn't change my opinion that this is one of the least special crops of 3YO American dirt horses we've seen in quite some time.

How about this: next time I have an opinion on something, I'll be certain to run it by you first for approval. Deal? I wouldn't want to offend your sensibilities after all.

Krystle Yanagihara · Post by **Krystle Yanagihara** » 17 years ago

I'll have to agree with him, this year's crop doesn't have any star quality standouts like the years before but maybe it's just because we've been spoiled over the previous years, and after the loss of Barbaro it's hard to get back into the swing of things.

Still, I'm pulling for Street Sense.

Susie Rydell · Post by **Susie Rydell** » 17 years ago

J Slotman wrote: if this isn't Bellamy Road redux, I don't know what is.

Except Bellamy Road had beaten better horses going into the Derby than Curlin has.

Chris Carman · Post by **Chris Carman** » 17 years ago

how is it a Bellamy Road redux?

John Slotmon · Post by **John Slotmon** » 17 years ago

Chris Carman wrote: how is it a Bellamy Road redux?

Easy win in a final prep, going to take a ton of money on Derby day, and who knows what will happen when he gets looked in the eye in a 20 horse field?

I actually think Bellamy Road was probably a better horse coming into the Derby with a better trainer with better records in the classic series.

John Slotmon · Post by **John Slotmon** » 17 years ago

This site is a great tool and a fanastic time killer. Enjoy:

<a href='http://www.courier-journal.com/cjsports ... index.html' target='_blank'>http://www.courier-journal.com/cjsports ... ex.html</a>

Emily Thompson · Post by **Emily Thompson** » 17 years ago

J Slotman wrote: This site is a great tool and a fanastic time killer. Enjoy:

<a href='http://www.courier-journal.com/cjsports ... index.html' target='_blank'>http://www.courier-journal.com/cjsports ... ex.html</a>

Ooh, awesome.

I've just found how I'm going to be wasting most of the workday today.

Jolene Danner · Post by **Jolene Danner** » 17 years ago

J Slotman wrote: I'll be honest here, I think Curlin's a decent horse, but if this isn't Bellamy Road redux, I don't know what is.

It's a tad bit different then Bellamy Road. A horse that was already proven to NEED the lead to win. There was no way in hell that he was going to get the lead on Derby day. Not with horses like Spanish Chestnut, Going Wild, High Limit etc in the race as well. He couldn't possibly get the lead and have it to himself. So he had no shot to win that race. He was a terrible favorite.

Curlin isn't the same type. Although he beat about the same quality field, Curlin has more dimension then Bellamy Road. Curlin can stalk comfrtably for one thing.

I don't love Curlin in the Derby but I don't think that he's a Bellamy Road. He might be the favorite, he might not. I do think that the Derby being only his 4th race could hurt him, but I tend to think of him more as this years Showing Up. Lots of potential Talent, but the derby just falls too soon after they develop for them to win. Showing Up ran a bang up race in the Derby to get 6th. I'm guessing that Curlin might end up in the same boat. They might be better off with ther Bernardini route and skip the Derby in favor of the Preakness. But really not many people can pass up the Derby Opportunity.

John Slotmon · Post by **John Slotmon** » 17 years ago

Fair points. I still think history is decidedly against Curlin and a few others. I do like the fact Hard Spun worked a mile the other day. It's not a 9f race, but I think it is a reasonably facscimile of one.

Susie Rydell · Post by **Susie Rydell** » 17 years ago

I think it's reeeeeeeally, really debatable that Bellamy Road has proved he neeed the lead to win. He was a naturally fast horse with a high cruising speed, so he didn't find himself off the early lead often... but the one time he did pre-Derby, he won. By 7 1/2.

The horses he beat going into the Derby were heads and shoulders above anything Curlin has laid eyes on. And he'd done it faster and easier.

Matt Heissenbuttel · Post by **Matt Heissenbuttel** » 17 years ago

I think street sense will win this race pretty easily. He got beat by a nose by a poly track specialist. He has had two tough prep races and has already shown that he loves CD. My only hope is that CURLIN takes all the money and Street Sense gets off around 6 or 7 to 1.

Emily Thompson · Post by **Emily Thompson** » 17 years ago

I still like Street Sense, though I also quite like the work Hard Spun put in last week. I don't think I'm going to be betting this year, so I'm a little less invested than I've been in past years.