Curlin

Erin Sanderson · Post by **Erin Sanderson** » 17 years ago

I actually have to disagree with the statements that this is the weakest three-year-old crop we've seen in a while. In my opinion, it is one of the strongest overall. While we probably don't have any superhorses like Barbaro, the overall class of the Derby field is undeniable. Take a look at the odds, and you'll see that it's fairly evenly matched according to bettors.

I don't think I've seen this many horses in the Derby that actually belonged in years. For example, last year, there were a lot more question marks entering the Derby. Just take a look at horses like Showing Up, Seaside Retreat, and Storm Treasure. In my opinion, the lowest horse in this year's Derby field is head and shoulders above horses like these.

I'm very excited for this year. While I'm pulling for Curlin, since I picked him way back to win his maiden race, I don't know if he's got what it takes to win this early against this kind of field. I really like Street Sense here. Again, picked him in the Juvenile, and it is undeniable that this guy really loves Churchill Downs. His athleticism and versatility should do him a lot of good today. Of course, we can't count out horses like Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday, and Tiago (as much as I hate to say it)

John Slotmon · Post by **John Slotmon** » 17 years ago

No offense to anybody, but if you still think this is a strong 3YO crop, I have a bridge in Brooklyn I would love to sell you.

Dave Shields · Post by **Dave Shields** » 17 years ago

J Slotman wrote: No offense to anybody, but if you still think this is a strong 3YO crop, I have a bridge in Brooklyn I would love to sell you.

How do you determine if it is a "strong" crop or "weak" crop?

Ara Davies · Post by **Ara Davies** » 17 years ago

Dave Shields wrote:
J Slotman wrote: No offense to anybody, but if you still think this is a strong 3YO crop, I have a bridge in Brooklyn I would love to sell you.
How do you determine if it is a "strong" crop or "weak" crop?

Easy. This year's crop = weak. Random other year's crops = strong.

Doesn't matter what year; I can't think of a single year where multiple people didn't say the crop was the weakest in years. I even recall people complaining during the mid to late 90s when it seemed like we had stellar horses coming out of our ears!

Dave Shields · Post by **Dave Shields** » 17 years ago

Ara Davies wrote:
Dave Shields wrote:
J Slotman wrote: No offense to anybody, but if you still think this is a strong 3YO crop, I have a bridge in Brooklyn I would love to sell you.
How do you determine if it is a "strong" crop or "weak" crop?
Easy. This year's crop = weak. Random other year's crops = strong.

Doesn't matter what year; I can't think of a single year where multiple people didn't say the crop was the weakest in years. I even recall people complaining during the mid to late 90s when it seemed like we had stellar horses coming out of our ears!

Yeah, but who are these "people" saying this year is weak? How do they judge their opinion?

I just don't understand how a blanket statement can be made for an entire crop. Horses win, horses lose... every year is different horses.

I guess one could make the argument that well this years champion is weak because he is not "_____" (you fill in the blank). You can't compare a horse like Barbaro to Secretariat (just two "superstar" examples). They didn't run in the same year, they are of different times.

Would you say Funny Cide's year was a weak group? What about Winning Colors?

Just trying to understand why people think one generation is "weak".

Ara Davies · Post by **Ara Davies** » 17 years ago

I don't understand it either. There are certainly years here and there where the horses aren't very good, there aren't any consistent stakes winners and as they age they get tromped by horses both older and younger than them, but certainly not EVERY year. It seems to me that whenever there's one standout horse (like Barbaro), the crop is criticized as "weak" since that horse whups everybody, but when there is no standout horse, the crop is criticized as "weak" because nobody is heads and shoulders above the rest. It just seems really silly to me.

I want to do research now to see what people were saying about the 1954 crop when they were three year olds.

Post by **The Steward** » 17 years ago

People think the 3yos of 2006 are a "strong" group... because you have many, not just a few, outstanding horses. For example, Barbaro, Bernardini, Discreet Cat, etc. They all, at one time or another, seemed awfully impressive (whether or not they really were...)

An exmaple of a "weak" group would be a year where a different horse wins every 3 year old race, and none of them run well against older horses. That's considered not as good.

However, it's way too early to make a blanket statement about this year's 3yos, seeing as we're only 5 months into the year with a horse many people think will win the Triple Crown.

John Slotmon · Post by **John Slotmon** » 17 years ago

I don't think Street Sense will win the Triple Crown. He's a closer. Belmont has always favored stalkers. Plus, I don't think he's in the same league as a myriad of horses who have missed the Triple Crown since 1978.

And why is this a weak crop? Honestly? Is there a single horse in this crop that just screams "great" to anybody?

Erin Sanderson · Post by **Erin Sanderson** » 17 years ago

J Slotman wrote: I don't think Street Sense will win the Triple Crown. He's a closer.

Really, Street Sense has a lot of tactical speed. Take his maiden victory, for example. He pressed a very hot pace, then drew clear in the stretch. In the Tampa Bay Derby, he wasn't particularly deep in the field as he was in the Juvenile or Kentucky Derby. The Blue Grass (which is albeit a throwout race) again shows his versatility. He raced close up in a tightly bunched field to finish a very close second.

Just pointing out that Street Sense is not one-dimensional, my dubious friend. Whether he can actually win the Triple Crown or not remains to be seen. He will face horses old and new in the Preakness. I'm not sure who I'll be rooting for. Him, Curlin, and King Of The Roxy are my absolute favorites.

Rebecca Rose Hepburn · Post by **Rebecca Rose Hepburn** » 17 years ago

J Slotman wrote: And why is this a weak crop? Honestly? Is there a single horse in this crop that just screams "great" to anybody?

Rags to Riches. Magnificience (I don't care that she's had two starts, she exudes 'amazing'). A three year old crop isn't just limited to the boys

Seriously, what's wrong with this crop? Street Sense breaks a 20+ year old 'jinx' by closing from 19th in the Derby. Hard Spun looked like a possible monster at two, and has done very well so far this year; note the distance between 2nd and 3rd place in the Derby. Tiago had a monster gallop out and could be any sort as he grows up and gets longer distances. And who knows what's going to happen when some horses rejoin the rest of the group, such as Ravel, Horse Greeley, and even ones like Exhale (I know I wasn't the only one in love with Exhale, Haskin was too so he deserves a mention

)

The point is, last year's 3yr old champion certainly wasn't a household name at this point last year. I think we should wait and see what they do with the rest of the year before we term them as being good or bad.

John Slotmon · Post by **John Slotmon** » 17 years ago

du·bi·ous /ˈdubiəs, ˈdyu-/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[doo-bee-uhs, dyoo-] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–adjective 1. doubtful; marked by or occasioning doubt: a dubious reply.
2. of doubtful quality or propriety; questionable: a dubious compliment; a dubious transaction.
3. of uncertain outcome: in dubious battle.
4. wavering or hesitating in opinion; inclined to doubt.

I don't think you really meant "dubious," nor do I think you meant friend, but I digress. Street Sense is a stone cold closer.

LaDonna King · Post by **LaDonna King** » 17 years ago

it seems like every year someone makes that comment....it's a weak crop. i can't recall a year where that comment hasn't been made.

curlin didn't win the derby, but i have to give him credit...he finished 3rd in his 4th career start...not too shabby!!
hard spun isn't anything to sneeze at either....finishing second after running almost wire to wire in somewhat speedy fractions. i really expecte him to finish up the track.

all in all, i think this is a FINE crop of 3 yr olds. then again, i love the sport and think they(the horses) all deserve respect.

John Slotmon · Post by **John Slotmon** » 17 years ago

I totally agree, LK. I love the animals, love the sport, and will watch regardless of how talented I think some of these horses are.

However, this year certainly isn't a 2004 or 2006 - or even 2005 - in terms of 3YO talent. I don't think we have a Rock Hard Ten or Borrego or Bernardini or Discreet Cat waiting to break out in this 2007 crop. Hey, I could be wrong - and incidentally, this is the first time in a long time I've thought we really, truly had a below average crop of 3YO's.

Rose - if you're talking about fillies, then sure, Rags to Riches is a monster. She should have tried the Derby.

Jolene Danner · Post by **Jolene Danner** » 17 years ago

In 2004 everyone was berating the crop saying how bad it was. turns out it was pretty darn good. It's too early to tell how good this crop is. I don't think that you can really make a comment about it until late next year really. Just like the 2004 crop matured nicely, this one could as well.

Post by **The Steward** » 17 years ago

J Slotman wrote: I totally agree, LK. I love the animals, love the sport, and will watch regardless of how talented I think some of these horses are.

However, this year certainly isn't a 2004 or 2006 - or even 2005 - in terms of 3YO talent. I don't think we have a Rock Hard Ten or Borrego or Bernardini or Discreet Cat waiting to break out in this 2007 crop. Hey, I could be wrong - and incidentally, this is the first time in a long time I've thought we really, truly had a below average crop of 3YO's.
if you're talking about fillies, then sure, Rags to Riches is a monster. She should have tried the Derby.

Don't get me wrong, I LOVE Rock Hard Ten and really dislike Bernardini, but how on Earth do you compare these 4 horses? Borrego was considered a fluke throughout his career, Rock Hard Ten was an underachiever until his 4yo year, etc. They can't be compared with 2 horses who were considered the best 3yos in years.