A SIM "Derby Dozen"

Eric Nalbone · Post by **Eric Nalbone** » 18 years ago

Hey everyone, I'm bored and thought I'd compile a SIM version of the what the Bloodhorse calls their "Derby Dozen" and write a little bit about the top Derby contenders, quote my own odds, and solicit opinions on what everyone thinks! Chime in with your own opinions on Derby contenders, list your own Derby Dozen, list your own odds, whatever you'd like, I'm curious to see what people think of the Derby.

I've done the best I can to be unbiased, so I hope my ownership of a few candidates doesn't invalidate my analysis!

1. Edict (Symbol x Cloak [Tremendous])
Owner: Eric Nalbone
Current Odds: 7/1
Last Race: 1/4 length victory in the Holy Bull Stakes over Kotya Peekin
Commentary: 2nd last year in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and inherited Winter Book Favorite status upon the retirement of 2yo champion End Result. Prevailed between horses in a gritty Holy Bully victory and will attempt to parlay a Florida Derby prep into a 2nd consecutive win for Nalbone's Dare To Dream stud.

2. Lokite Tragedy (Jet Ski x Lokite Tenacity [Symbol])
Owner: Robin Tan
Current Odds: 10/1
Last Race: 3 1/2 length victory in the Lone Star Derby over Use Your Words
Commentary: Undefeated colt overpowered the field this week in Texas, and has a 1/2 length victory in the G1 Futurity Stakes over the good horse Righteous to validate his 2yo form. One of several big-name representatives for his sire Jet Ski on this list.

3. Vampire (Conduit x Really Excellent [Real Quiet])
Owner: LaDonna King
Current Odds: 12/1
Last Race: 1 length victory in the Rushaway Stakes over Darkness Awaits
Commentary: Like Lokite Tragedy, undefeated in 4 starts, but his habit of cutting things closer than they need to be could come back to bite him. Half brother to a Belmont Stakes winner and a Travers winner will only get better with more ground.

4. Strongerable (Trophy x A Class Act [Loki Flame])
Owner: Eric Nalbone
Current Odds: 15/1
Last Race: 6 length victory in the Arizona Derby over Monumental
Commentary: Turned in what was the most visually impressive Derby prep of the year in his demolition of the Arizona Derby, and for now gets the benefit of the doubt as far as his ability to go longer (his full brother, Herkemayah, won last year's Belmont Stakes by 14 3/4 lengths). He must demonstrate an ability to relax on the lead or his position this high on the list is in jeapordy.

5. Gezellig (Loki Flame x Elusive By Design [Symbol])
Owner: Jon Xett
Current Odds: 15/1
Last Race: 5 1/2 length victory over Tears of A Clown in the Gotham Stakes
Commentary: Overwhelmed a solid field in the Gotham and should eat up the ground as he stretches out. Fast enough to run stellar sprinter Saturn to 1/2 length as a 2yo, and the female family on this colt says "Classics" like no other female family in existence. Savvy trainer knows how to get a horse ready for the Derby and will have this one ready to rock in Kentucky.

6. Le Chateau Magique (Storm A Fortress x Les Batons Magique [Cigar])
Owner: Teri Lawrence
Current Odds: 15/1
Last Race: 1/4 length victory over Chart in the Lane's End Stakes
Commentary: Picked up the first stakes win of his career by beating the nice colt Chart, but will need to turn in another big run to prove that the bad taste of a 9th place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile is out of his mouth.

7. Kotya Peekin (Loki Flame x Three Day Event [Event Of The Year])
Owner: Brianna McKenzie
Current Odds: 20/1
Last Race: 2nd by 1/4 length to Edict in the Holy Bull Stakes
Commentary: The Holy Bull Stakes looks to have been the deepest of the Derby preps to date, and this one was moving best of all through the final furlong to just miss. Has the look of a horse who wants more ground, and to make a closing run like that on a traditionally speed-favoring Gulfstream strip speaks to his class.

8. Speedboat (Jet Ski x Farewell Legacy [Fighting With Wit])
Owner: Robin Tan
Current Odds: 20/1
Last Race: 1/2 length victory over Pillar Of Strength in the Count Fleet Stakes
Commentary: Last year's Hopeful S. winner is 5: 4-1-0 lifetime and gritted out a businesslike win last week. Bred to stretch out but lost his only start over 1m to fellow Derby hopeful Vampire. A victory in his next start would jump him up this list, however, and start people talking.

9. Righteous (Gaze Unwavering x Loki Paradise [Priceless Forever])
Owner: Eric Nalbone
Current Odds: 20/1
Last Race: 1 length victory over Vee to Shining Zee in the Aventura Stakes
Commentary: More experienced than most horses looking for a Derby berth this year, he's made 6 lifetime starts, 4 of them at a mile or more. Looks like a distance specialist and was 3rd in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but the Aventura field was not the strongest of the Derby preps this spring. Like many, looking to validate his form next time out.

10. Chart (Jet Ski x Banner [Loki Flame])
Owner: Ara Davies
Last Race: 2nd by 1/4 length to Le Chateau Magique in the Lane's End Stakes
Current Odds: 30/1
Commentary: Half brother to a pair of turf stars (Atlas/Map) is trying to transfer the family's form to the main track, and while this writer thinks he'll ultimately find his best stride over the lawn, he must be given a huge shot over the dirt. Is ranked where he is because, despite the promise he displayed with his closing effort last time out, when all was said and done a hot pace should have worked more to this colt's favor than Le Chateau Magique's. That he couldn't get by leaves me questioning, but this was the first time the colt has been pushed, and I'd expect him to come back strong next time out, perhaps in the Blue Grass Stakes?

11. Pillar Of Strength (Chesapeake Bay x Silent Starfire [Battle Cry])
Owner: Gerry Hardie
Last Race: 2nd by 1/2 length to Speedboat
Commentary: Ran out of ground going 1 mile, but he's bred top and bottom for 1 1/4 and he'll get 9 furlongs to work with this week in the Florida Derby against Edict. Was a $9,000,000 yearling purchase, and showed great promise as a two year old, coming home only behind End Result, Edict and Righteous in the BC Juvenile. Perhaps one on this list with the biggest potential to send his stock soaring, though there is reason to think that he'll be most comfortable in the Belmont Stakes.
Current Odds: 30/1

12. Broken Hearted (Symbol x Golden Light [Black Ice])
Owner: Amanda Saunders
Last Race: Neck victory over Unknown Soldier in the Santa Catalina Stakes
Commentary: While a win is a win however it comes, Broken Hearted was perhaps the least impressive winner of a Derby prep thus far this spring. His inability to relax behind horses puts him at the mercy of his situation, and unlike Strongerable further up this list, he didn't parlay early speed into a dominating romp, but got leg weary through the lane. On the list as testament to the fact that he deserves a spot until somebody takes it, but unless he can plug the leaks, his ship may sink quickly on the road to the Derby.
Current Odds: 30/1

On the bubble (listed in alphabetical order, trainer in parenthesis):

Adjust The Lens (Jonathan Pac): Seems like a sprinter through and through, so despite a 1/2 length victory in the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes, he seems unlikely to continue down the Triple Crown trail.

Brave The War (Laura Ferguson): Son of Soldier Girl was a casualty of Lokite Tragedy last week, but his closing kick was promising. One of a dozen colts with promise and needing the record to back it up, this one has at least an allowance victory over Tot Ziens to his name.

Dance on Moonbeams (Steph Wilder): Despite a win over the good colt Zonked last week, a poor performance in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and a loss to Tot Ziens in last year's Breeders' Futurity leave me looking for a repeat performance in his next prep.

Darkness Awaits (Josh Dutzy): New trainer has a good one on his hands, but whether he is of Derby quality remains to be seen. Has relatively little seasoning, was no match for Righteous as a two year old, and gave way to Vampire last time out after setting a hot pace. In the same boat as Strongerable and Broken Hearted in terms of needing to prove that they can relax a little bit, but may lack the explosiveness of that pair.

Mighty Big (Desiree Bendell): Always a bridesmaid and rarely the bride; would prefer to see some wins in his running line, but he hasn't won since his first start, despite running in the money in 4 consecutive stakes. Again, I'd expect just one speed horse in the Derby to ultimately kick clear and play a part in the finish, and this one doesn't appear to be the classiest of the speedballs. As usual, however, it is prudent to reserve judgement until we see how he responds to 9 furlongs.

Monumental (Laura Ferguson): Bred to go long, and didn't have a chance in the Arizona Derby, where Strongerable shrugged off a mild early threat and simply pounded the field. Look for improvement as this one gets more ground and finds someone to apply some serious pressure to the speed horses in front of him and he'll have a chance to show what he's got.

Onetobreckonedwith (Dave Shields): Beaten just over 3/4 of a length in a blanket Holy Bull Stakes finish, and that effort in his first start off of a maiden victory. Has a big license to improve, but at the same time, young horses sometimes bounce off of a huge step up like this one took last time out. As such, like most on this "bubble" list, verdict pending until his next race.

Tears Of A Clown (Gerry Hardie): Beaten twice now by Gezellig, it would be nice to see him get by once. Bred to go long, like many of these, but need to see a big step up in his next race to consider him a real shot in the Derby.

Thank You (Jon Xett): A Xett colt like the rest with a gorgeous pedigree, running lines to suggest that he's on the verge of a breakthrough, and needing the one huge performance to back up those two elements. He was a half-length plus a neck away from earning that last time out.

Tot Ziens (Jon Xett): Xett's 2nd stringer has maybe the best pedigree on this list, and this colt was a G1 winner at 2. Knock on him is that he was 7th behind many of these in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile the last time the big guns all came to play, but a 7f prep should set him up well for an 8.5 or 9f prep for the Derby. Bred to go long, I'd pay little attention to final placings at shorter distances and focus instead on his strong stretch runs and the wide move that he almost managed to successfully pull off last time out. Maybe the best chance of a 'Bubble' horse to jump way up the list real fast.

Unknown Soldier (LaDonna King): Knock is the lack of seasoning, but despite making only his 2nd career start, he just barely missed knocking off Broken Hearted last time out. The concern is that he's likely to bounce somewhere along the way, and he's out of time: he needs to parlay a strong final prep into a strong Derby, and taking three large steps forward for a horse without a sufficient base of races will be extremely difficult. Certainly bred to be rock-solid and eating up the ground.

Use Your Words (Jon Xett): As is expected from a Xett trainee, the pedigree passes every possible litmus test. He's obviously classy; he beat Broken Hearted in the 1-mile Sapling Stakes as a 2yo, and then followed that up with a more-than-respectable 6th in the BC Juvenile. Was no match for Lokite Tragedy in the Lone Star Derby, but deserves another shot.

Vee to Shining Zee (Jon Xett): Another Xett colt, another pedigree, though this is perhaps the one least-likely to make a serious impact on the Derby field. Was beaten last out by Righteous, and with a big run in his next, could step up, but the Aventura field wasn't all that impressive and they clocked a final time of 1:39.4 (compare to the 1:37.3 flat mile in the Arizona Derby, 1:38 in the Gotham). Need to see much, much more from this colt if he's to be a factor.

Waverider (Daryl Singhi): Half brother to Accolade by Jet Ski is bred for success and was unlucky to finish 3rd in the blanket-finish of the Holy Bull. Hard to be too hard on this colt when the only three colts that have beaten him occupy the #1, #3, and #7 positions on my list, but I'd like to see him win a stakes before slotting him in.

Zonked (Laura Ferguson): Another Jet Ski son, this one from the same Pike Place Dancer line as many of the Xett trainees, though he is "under new management" this year as Laura Ferguson takes over training duties. After a pair of impressive victories leading into the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he was inexplicably stomped in that race, but he came back strong with a 2nd in the El Camino Real. Want to see him again against more established competition, but the potential is there.

**EDITED AND IS NOW COMPLETE**

Laura Ferguson · Post by **Laura Ferguson** » 18 years ago

I really like your article so far, and am interested in reading the rest of it, once it is done. I agree with most of your comments, but I'd be curious to see how you think Brave the War stacks up against Monumental and Zonked, as I think he's got the best shot to get the distance out of my Derby hopefuls to run so far.

Eric Nalbone · Post by **Eric Nalbone** » 18 years ago

Note: its now done.

LaDonna King · Post by **LaDonna King** » 18 years ago

very interesting.....i always enjoy reading your comments and such. question though, unknown soldier isn't even nominated to the derby,why was he included? of course i like him, i own him...but i was a little shocked to see his name on your list....

Post by **The Steward** » 18 years ago

Because horses who finish 2nd in a major prep race should definitely be included in anyone's consideration?

Eric Nalbone · Post by **Eric Nalbone** » 18 years ago

Heh, he's on the list because he was impressive in a Derby prep. If he's not likely to run in the Derby, a lot of the commentary about getting him to the Derby becomes a little less relevant. Maybe he's more of a horse to look out for in the Travers or Belmont, we'll see what you do with him I guess!

LaDonna King · Post by **LaDonna King** » 18 years ago

of course i'd LOVE for him to be in the derby...i just never REALLY considered nominating him because of his inexperience. I don't think it would be wise to enter him without another prep, BUT i don't think it would be wise to run him in a prep, then run him in the derby..i just don't know, tough decision. there's always the preakness or belmont...and like you said there's the travers and haskell. i guess i will have to make my mind up QUICKLY!! lol.

LaDonna King · Post by **LaDonna King** » 18 years ago

well, i just found out the derby is week 6..all this time i thought it was week 5. soooo, i guess i have time to get another prep race in after all! we'll see how he does in his prep and go from there....

Post by **The Steward** » 18 years ago

Eric's article is up on Sports SIMulated in easy to read format. Don't forget that there is a Derby handicapping contest with a fantastic prize!

Martin Pennington · Post by **Martin Pennington** » 18 years ago

I'd make them all carry the jockey sat backwards.

Oh it isn't that kind of handicapping.