Under The Radar Derby Runners

Jack Heissenbuttel · Post by **Jack Heissenbuttel** » 17 years ago

UNDER THE RADAR

IZZIE'S HALO

Emily Thompson · Post by **Emily Thompson** » 17 years ago

I <3 Buffalo Man.

That is all.

Josh Dutzy · Post by **Josh Dutzy** » 17 years ago

If you think that a horse is a bet against in the Derby just b/c his or her name is more than three syllables, that is crazy

John Slotmon · Post by **John Slotmon** » 17 years ago

Nobody's saying a horse is a bet against, but there are definite trends in the Derby and this is one of them. Obviously, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Count Fleet, Assault, Spectacular Bid, and many others wouldn't work in this particular instance. Let me find my list of things not to bet in the Derby; it's really rather interesting.

Citation, Whirlaway, Sir Barton, Nashua, Gallant Fox, Omaha, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, and many others would work.

It's just a fun stat about Derby winners. Nothing more, nothing less.

Ara Davies · Post by **Ara Davies** » 17 years ago

Yes, but what percentage of entrants (GOOD entrants, we can ignore the ones who never had a chance) had names of three syllables? If it's the most common number of syllables in the names of decent Derby entrants, then of course the majority of Derby winners are going to have three syllable names.

It's like the statistics of how many horses have won from the auxillary gate. There's NO WAY for a horse to win from it in a year where it's not used. In other words, there is always a horse in post 1, but usually not in post 20. You have to look at the percentages based on how many times that particular post position was even used, not the actual numbers.

John Slotmon · Post by **John Slotmon** » 17 years ago

I think the last year we didn't have a full field for the Derby was sometime in the late 90's. There are lots of great angles though, many of which have been broken in the last ten years. Don't bet a gelding. Don't get a horse with RAN in their damsire line. Don't bet a horse with fewer than five career starts (I think this is a great stat personally).

Let me find the list of angles and post it. It makes good discussion fodder.

Josh Dutzy · Post by **Josh Dutzy** » 17 years ago

J Slotman wrote: Obviously, Nobiz like Shobiz is a bet against, as are Street Sense and Hard Spun. Dreaming of Anna is right out.

Those were your words, thats why I said to call them a bet against, or any horse a bet against just based on syllables is crazy

John Slotmon · Post by **John Slotmon** » 17 years ago

Sarcasm, people. I'm also not a believer in either Nobiz like Shobiz or Street Sense for May, so all the better.

Ali Weasley · Post by **Ali Weasley** » 17 years ago

Chief Talkeetna.

If he wins, will you all start breeding to Chief Seattle more? He deserves it!

John Slotmon · Post by **John Slotmon** » 17 years ago

Found the angles. Discuss as you will:

1) Do not bet a gelding to win the Derby
2) Do not bet a horse that didn't have a prep race in April.
3) Don't bet any horse with fewer than 3 prep races since January 1st.
4) Don't bet a horse with fewer than 5 life time starts.
5) Don't bet any horse that hasn't had at least one prep race of 8f or longer.
6) Don't bet a foreign-based horse to win the Derby.
7) Don't bety any horse that didn't start at two.
8) Don't bet any "Late Nominee" to the race.
9) Don't bet a horse with a DI over 4.00 or a CD over 1.00.
10) Don't bet a horse with fewer than 16 points in DP, prefer at least 18.
11) Don't bet a horse with RAN Curse.
12) Don't bet winner of BCJ to win the Derby.
13) Don't bet a horse that finished out of the money in last prep.
14) Don't bet a horse with Damascus in sire's sire line to win Derby
15) Don't bet a horse that failed to finish in the top 4 in one of the following preps: Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Wood, Blue Grass, Spiral.

John Slotmon · Post by **John Slotmon** » 17 years ago

Only one horse starting with the letter "B" has won the race in the last 71 years....

Matt Heissenbuttel · Post by **Matt Heissenbuttel** » 17 years ago

I have a derby betting tip. Dont bet on any horses tha tdont have four legs. Also dont bet on horses with no tails.

Rebecca Rose Hepburn · Post by **Rebecca Rose Hepburn** » 17 years ago

In other words, just don't bet period