Under The Radar Derby Runners
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- Emily Thompson
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Nobody's saying a horse is a bet against, but there are definite trends in the Derby and this is one of them. Obviously, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Count Fleet, Assault, Spectacular Bid, and many others wouldn't work in this particular instance. Let me find my list of things not to bet in the Derby; it's really rather interesting.
Citation, Whirlaway, Sir Barton, Nashua, Gallant Fox, Omaha, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, and many others would work.
It's just a fun stat about Derby winners. Nothing more, nothing less.
Citation, Whirlaway, Sir Barton, Nashua, Gallant Fox, Omaha, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, and many others would work.
It's just a fun stat about Derby winners. Nothing more, nothing less.
"John Slotman and <name redacted> are always sooooo amazingly generous with new and struggling players- I think we all thank you!" - April Eddy, 3/6/2012
- Ara Davies
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Yes, but what percentage of entrants (GOOD entrants, we can ignore the ones who never had a chance) had names of three syllables? If it's the most common number of syllables in the names of decent Derby entrants, then of course the majority of Derby winners are going to have three syllable names.
It's like the statistics of how many horses have won from the auxillary gate. There's NO WAY for a horse to win from it in a year where it's not used. In other words, there is always a horse in post 1, but usually not in post 20. You have to look at the percentages based on how many times that particular post position was even used, not the actual numbers.
It's like the statistics of how many horses have won from the auxillary gate. There's NO WAY for a horse to win from it in a year where it's not used. In other words, there is always a horse in post 1, but usually not in post 20. You have to look at the percentages based on how many times that particular post position was even used, not the actual numbers.
You're not getting a dead button...in fits of rage, John Slotman and Ara Davies and Jolene Danner would literally kill half their barns.
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- Bryan Doolittle
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That's my new motto: Don't quit, just shut up.
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I think the last year we didn't have a full field for the Derby was sometime in the late 90's. There are lots of great angles though, many of which have been broken in the last ten years. Don't bet a gelding. Don't get a horse with RAN in their damsire line. Don't bet a horse with fewer than five career starts (I think this is a great stat personally).
Let me find the list of angles and post it. It makes good discussion fodder.
Let me find the list of angles and post it. It makes good discussion fodder.
"John Slotman and <name redacted> are always sooooo amazingly generous with new and struggling players- I think we all thank you!" - April Eddy, 3/6/2012
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Found the angles. Discuss as you will:
1) Do not bet a gelding to win the Derby
2) Do not bet a horse that didn't have a prep race in April.
3) Don't bet any horse with fewer than 3 prep races since January 1st.
4) Don't bet a horse with fewer than 5 life time starts.
5) Don't bet any horse that hasn't had at least one prep race of 8f or longer.
6) Don't bet a foreign-based horse to win the Derby.
7) Don't bety any horse that didn't start at two.
8) Don't bet any "Late Nominee" to the race.
9) Don't bet a horse with a DI over 4.00 or a CD over 1.00.
10) Don't bet a horse with fewer than 16 points in DP, prefer at least 18.
11) Don't bet a horse with RAN Curse.
12) Don't bet winner of BCJ to win the Derby.
13) Don't bet a horse that finished out of the money in last prep.
14) Don't bet a horse with Damascus in sire's sire line to win Derby
15) Don't bet a horse that failed to finish in the top 4 in one of the following preps: Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Wood, Blue Grass, Spiral.
1) Do not bet a gelding to win the Derby
2) Do not bet a horse that didn't have a prep race in April.
3) Don't bet any horse with fewer than 3 prep races since January 1st.
4) Don't bet a horse with fewer than 5 life time starts.
5) Don't bet any horse that hasn't had at least one prep race of 8f or longer.
6) Don't bet a foreign-based horse to win the Derby.
7) Don't bety any horse that didn't start at two.
8) Don't bet any "Late Nominee" to the race.
9) Don't bet a horse with a DI over 4.00 or a CD over 1.00.
10) Don't bet a horse with fewer than 16 points in DP, prefer at least 18.
11) Don't bet a horse with RAN Curse.
12) Don't bet winner of BCJ to win the Derby.
13) Don't bet a horse that finished out of the money in last prep.
14) Don't bet a horse with Damascus in sire's sire line to win Derby
15) Don't bet a horse that failed to finish in the top 4 in one of the following preps: Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Wood, Blue Grass, Spiral.
"John Slotman and <name redacted> are always sooooo amazingly generous with new and struggling players- I think we all thank you!" - April Eddy, 3/6/2012
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