Proof That Sometimes the SIM is just Mean...

[Lee Cara]

I think its shocking how a horse can come 2nd in a S/C race but can't win a maiden, in theory it should of won that race 10l, it should be almost impossible for this horse to be losing them types of races.

[The Steward]

I think its shocking how a horse can come 2nd in a S/C race but can't win a maiden, in theory it should of won that race 10l, it should be almost impossible for this horse to be losing them types of races.

It's, as you said, exactly almost impossible! It's mathematical magic at work.

[Paul Heinrich]

I think its shocking how a horse can come 2nd in a S/C race but can't win a maiden, in theory it should of won that race 10l, it should be almost impossible for this horse to be losing them types of races.

It's, as you said, exactly almost impossible! It's mathematical magic at work.

If results were based solely on "attribute" numbers, sure. But if we're talking about confidence/seconditis issues here, it doesn't seem to require maths magic to explain, just an extreme confidence and running style combination, acting as a qualifying adjustment that's run to absurd levels.

[Lee Cara]

Paul how can we be talking Confidence, were did Flex or Magic Cougar (Magic Cougar was a really bad horse) get there confidence from these are maidens who will never place in another race.
Also I know he has a closing style but 15 races by a nose.

[Kay O. Johnson]

For the record, Flex IS NOT a really bad horse. He was born a Stakes galloper and is now a wings. Unfortunately he suffers from confidence problems of his own as his first race was a stakes as a 2 yr old where he finished 3rd. His next race was the SC Juvy. Too much too fast. The blame is not on Flex but his stupid trainer (me) who pushed him too fast.

[Lee Cara]

Sorry Kay it was Magic Cougar i meant was a very bad horse

[Kay O. Johnson]

Really, should I feel guilty or have it implied that I am not nice because I entered a race that my horse was qualified for? Lots of other people have entered against him also.

[Melissa Mae]

Would winning even help his confidence anymore or would it be one of those "get him a race win then rush him to the shed" type of things? At some point their confidence has to be 100% wrecked, right?

[The Steward]

Really, should I feel guilty or have it implied that I am not nice because I entered a race that my horse was qualified for? Lots of other people have entered against him also.

I don't think anyone said you aren't nice or that you should feel guilty. I think we all just feel bad for a fake horse who can't seem to get it together!

[Nick Gilmore]

I think we all just feel bad for a fake horse who can't seem to get it together!

And to think he has such an honest face,

Am I the only one who'd love to see this horse run shorter? Like, EVERY OTHER option has been tried, right? Admittedly, I know absolutely nothing about quarter horses, but in the thoroughbred world there are such creatures as come from behind sprinters.

[Paul Heinrich]

Would winning even help his confidence anymore or would it be one of those "get him a race win then rush him to the shed" type of things? At some point their confidence has to be 100% wrecked, right?

To me, the only reason to go out of my way to get him a win is to stand him. Lack of confidence won't hurt him at stud (or will it? Hmmmm...). I might race him once after a walkover win just to see, but I kind of suspect he's not going to recover confidence by winning a walkover.

Paul how can we be talking Confidence, were did Flex or Magic Cougar (Magic Cougar was a really bad horse) get there confidence from these are maidens who will never place in another race.

I look at it this way. The horse has a goodness number he's born with. Then there are numerous varying factors that can adjust that number in any given race. I consider confidence to be one of those factors (along with things like experience, fitness, fatigue, jockey quality, equipment, weather preferences, etc). Some things, like confidence, can go up or down by varying degrees, depending on what happens in a given race. Other things, like experience, only go up (maybe plateauing at a certain point).

In this view, everything you do with a horse, be it race, gallop, work, walk the shedrow, etc, affects one or more of those factors. But I suspect some other factors exist (like temperament, consistency, and running style) that don't change at all, but can work in tandem with other things (like a lack of confidence) to produce extreme results, like severe second-itis.

ETA - to answer the question of where did the other horses get the confidence to beat him, I'd just say you don't need positive confidence to win, and I'd guess the confidence levels of those horses were likely neutral, or at least not so bad as Windrunner. Bad horses that often finish up the track don't necessarily lose confidence in doing so (as I understand it, anyway). It's losing those close races that really hurts the confidence, which is why Windrunner's first race looks to be the ultimate culprit.

[Kay O. Johnson]

I agree with most of Paul's post. But I still think that a long rest can help Windrunner. Just look at Flex's record. He was a stakes galloper from the start. His first start was a stakes and he finished third with a 73. He was then entered in a SC race where he finished 7th with a 72. Then 2 maidens where he ran 4th and 5th as a 3 yr old. So a long rest followed and what do you know? In his first start of Yr 35 he beats a horse who came in 2nd in the SC.

[Bradley Davis]

I'm with Lee on this. It's a bit ridiculous that a horse as talented as Windrunner appears to be still cannot break his maiden. Surely his class would have been enough to get him a win thus far. Moreover, since his losses have almost all come by a nose, the horse itself wouldn't know that he's getting beaten. I understand that since the SIM's horses are just bits and bytes, a loss is a loss is a loss when it comes to confidence levels, but quite frankly this is case where perhaps his confidence shouldn't be devastated as he isn't finishing lengths behind 'in the pack'; he's been in photo finishes in almost all of his races.

[Paul Heinrich]

I'm with Lee on this. It's a bit ridiculous that a horse as talented as Windrunner appears to be still cannot break his maiden. Surely his class would have been enough to get him a win thus far. Moreover, since his losses have almost all come by a nose, the horse itself wouldn't know that he's getting beaten. I understand that since the SIM's horses are just bits and bytes, a loss is a loss is a loss when it comes to confidence levels, but quite frankly this is case where perhaps his confidence shouldn't be devastated as he isn't finishing lengths behind 'in the pack'; he's been in photo finishes in almost all of his races.

I'm not taking a position on whether it's ridiculous or not - only that it's not coincidence, nor is it a manufactured or manipulated result. It's clear (to me, anyway), that some ratings/factor combination has evolved to the point where this horse isn't going to finish anything but 2nd, until he finds a walkover. Realistic in terms of "confidence"? Probably not, though it doesn't seem unrealistic to think that certain horses may be talented, but simply don't know how to do anything but catch their opponent at the wire only to fall just short. Maybe it's not a confidence issue IRL, maybe it's what they just like to do. Be that as it may. At issue here, I think, is how SIM "confidence" works, and how it can affect a horse, in an extreme case. It clearly isn't normally this pronounced, and that's why I suspect it's a combination of factors in this specific horse - perhaps a high-strung horse, with a deep closing style, finishing a close second in a hot stakes race first out.

I seem to recall Em saying at some point (if this was in The Edge, it was a long time ago, so hopefully it's ok bring up publicly now) that close races were what mattered for confidence, and that the magic number was 5 - as in, lose 5 close races in a row, and you're not going to have the same racehorse on your hands. I don't doubt this "rule" has been tweaked or adjusted, with all the changes made to the SIM since. But I think the concept is probably the same - for certain types of horses, it's better to finish 4th, 3 lengths behind the leader, than to finish a close second in a hot race first out.

[Karl Smythe]

I apologize in advance for not reading the 10 pages but been busy.
I think he needs an owner change. Seems to work sometimes when you want a horse to get over the 350k to become stallion worthy.
Maybe works for a win???