What do you think of this filly?

[Carole Hanson]

Posting this from my phone so I can't post a link, sorry!

So the thing is I have this filly called Settled in Stars who is a natural (from an A nick for chasing) and she broke her maiden first out under 'a mild drive' but I understand steeplechaser are complicated, for example another natural I have was 9th first out. My question is, what do you guys think of her? Should I be thinking future stakes horse or future allowance type?

Thanks for any input, and thanks to A. R. Roberts for the lease

[Fanta Arcadia]

Here's a link to Settled in Stars. I gotta say I like her, but I am biased after all lol

A steeplechaser's potential is a hard thing to predict but I can say this about Mine Those Stars' progeny. His fillies have a tendency of being better than his colts and they usually get better as they get older. You never know how a horse will do in a stakes until you try. For example, my stallion Fire in My Hart won a Grade 1 in France and never scored a 100 speed figure in his career.

[Jazz Brown]

It's hard to say at this point with your filly. In the chaser world SFs are very important. A 96 is pretty good but many graded stakes winners consistently put out 100s (that isn't always the case though as demonstrated by Fanta's Fire in my Hart and others). Of course I could have a horse break its maiden with an 100 SF and then never place higher that 5th again. Even the allowance races can be super competitive because the horses in them can often run high 90s or even a 100 in their races.

I personally have started to use race times as an indicator to how good my young chasers might be in their early years of racing. Your girl finished a 2 mile race in 3:25.34. I have a 3yro filly that broke her maiden across the same distance at first asking in a time of 3:24.84. She ran a 100 SF. The record for that distance is somewhere in the 3:23.something range. I suspect my filly might be able to pick up another win and at least earn money in allowance/nw races (I also tend to set low expectations for my steeplechasers). The thing about steeplechasers is even all that isn't necessarily an indicator of anything. Your girl could improve next asking with a higher SF and faster time, or she could never come home with money again. Or maybe she continues to earn money but can never quite win for a season or two and then out of no where she turns up unbeaten for 4 races and is stakes placed or a stakes winner. I've seen it all and more with my chasers.

The point is I think it's too early to tell anything for sure. I do think Settled in Stars will be able to earn a little more money, but I don't know how much, if she will win again, or what level of racing she will be able to compete. You'll have a better idea after her next race, but remember that many chasers improve with age and you might have a completely different horse in a couple seasons. I'm with Fanta though, I like her too.

[Carole Hanson]

Thanks for the opinions guys Yea I can see why you really like her Fanta I do like her sire, always have and I hope that my other natural (who hopefully shows some ability one day) will retire in time for him

Well I will probably wait for a NW2 or Allowance next out, don't want to throw her in at the deep end.

Thank you for your time guys

[Abe Froman]

I error on the side of caution unless they blow a field out. If she were mine, she would be in a NW2 next out. There is plenty of time later to find stakes. At 3, with the stakes schedule limited, you are going to be going against other really good horses most of the time.