A thought on hypos and stallion/mare quality

[Gwayne's World]

Hypos are way below pedigree and random slide. The random slide is a HUGE factor. Have a look at this mare and her progeny: Alsotravelsintime
Obviously the Together nick was a real hit for her. But of the two daughters who were the most successful on the track, one couldn’t produce a winner if you gave them a furlong headstart while the other produced 2 millionaires.

So really you need to go to the same stallion multiple times before you know if he’s truly a great cross with a mare or just a slide fluke.

Additionally, some sire lines (sometimes completely inexplicably) absolutely suck once they hit the second and third generation. Burning Up a Sun (Shahir'ra brother by Gojira) is an example of a sire who should have been wildly successful and yet doesn’t have a millionaire from his kids or grandkids.

Probably the best advice on breeding you'll ever come across!

https://www.simhorseracing.com/featurer ... leID=16761

[Kent Saunders]

My take is the original Poster is pretty accurate. As time passes I Hypo less every season, that said as I breed alot of foals I have a good sense of what Hypo's I'd get with veteran studs. To me Hypo's are just math, as below using some random numbers to make a point:

A+ = .5% to get a Stakes or Freak
A = .35% to get a stakes or Freak
A- = .2% chance of getting a stakes or Freak
B+ =.1% chance of getting a stakes or Freak
B =.008% chance of getting a Stakes or Freak
And so on....In my mind I ALWAYS want the best possible hypo in the division I am breeding. BUT I also want good breeding/excellent bloodlines/good if not great race record and the Mystery great random Slide!
Just like the lottery sometimes you just get lucky (in this case random slides) and there are Folks that will gladly tell you about the time they bred a flat B hypo and got a Million $ winner.....I will go with the math every time...it seems to work for me.

Kent

[Nicole Marie]

Like I said once you get an idea for the actual quality of your BM do hypo’s even matter anymore if you’re sending them to the best stallions?

Some mares are just confusing, I think. This one https://www.simhorseracing.com/horse.ph ... ID=1280005 has two stakes and an allowance (LB) galloper and she's got all B and B+ hypos except one A- with Valley of Fire (she's a formid and has been mass-hypomated). But like others have said, the slide also contributes and I think this mare's had a lot of luck when it comes to the slide too.

[Todd A. Pletcher]

My take is the original Poster is pretty accurate. As time passes I Hypo less every season, that said as I breed alot of foals I have a good sense of what Hypo's I'd get with veteran studs. To me Hypo's are just math, as below using some random numbers to make a point:

A+ =.5% to get a Stakes or Freak
A =.35% to get a stakes or Freak
A- =.2% chance of getting a stakes or Freak
B+ =.1% chance of getting a stakes or Freak
B =.008% chance of getting a Stakes or Freak
And so on....In my mind I ALWAYS want the best possible hypo in the division I am breeding. BUT I also want good breeding/excellent bloodlines/good if not great race record and the Mystery great random Slide!
Just like the lottery sometimes you just get lucky (in this case random slides) and there are Folks that will gladly tell you about the time they bred a flat B hypo and got a Million $ winner.....I will go with the math every time...it seems to work for me.

Kent

but if, as the colleague says, there is a numerology for hypos, it is assumed that there is also one for the mare level, that is,

blue hen
stars
formidable

exetera

A+=.50% to get a Stakes or Freak
A =.35% to get a stakes or Freak
A-=.20% chance of getting a stakes or Freak
B+=.10% chance of getting a stakes or Freak
B=.08% chance of getting a Stakes or Freak

Is it supposed that if I place a blue hen with a great stallion and it gives a Hypo A and apart from that they have a great pedigree, it still doesn't assure me a stakes or a freak?

[Todd A. Pletcher]

The other thing is that I don't know if I'm wrong but I haven't seen a single Hypo: A in turf sprinters correct me if I'm wrong?

[Todd A. Pletcher]

To conclude and I am speaking in the Turf Sprinters division, this means that the "luck" factor has more weight, that is, what they call (random Slide) than the Hypo A

[Shannon Hunt]

There are quite a lot of A hypos in turf sprint. I don't know if there are any A+.

[J.P Dogood]

I think the randomness is important or else the simulation would be fairly weak if we were all getting freaks left and right.

I agree that there likely is some math/percentages involved in the crossings. I think we also agree that the formidable/B+ matings can be misleading.

The more I think about it though the more I think that’s why this game is endearing to us. If it wasn’t challenging/frustrating/secretive it would likely be too easy.

[Carolyn Eaton]

I like to hypo - it gives me some reassurance on the stud choice on older mares (especially if I am using a newer stud) and new mares will hypo across several studs to get a sense of who she's best with. Some mares hypo A- to everyone, so fewer, and others flip around A-/B+ - those get hypo'd a lot.

[John Smith]

To conclude and I am speaking in the Turf Sprinters division, this means that the "luck" factor has more weight, that is, what they call (random Slide) than the Hypo A

plenty of As

I have never seen an A+ in any division, so.. i am skeptical they exist!... I have a list of sires you are more likely to A with in TS if you PM me, maybe we can work something out!

To Start, try Gord's Secret! only 6 slots left!

[John Smith]

I like to hypo - it gives me some reassurance on the stud choice on older mares (especially if I am using a newer stud) and new mares will hypo across several studs to get a sense of who she's best with. Some mares hypo A- to everyone, so fewer, and others flip around A-/B+ - those get hypo'd a lot.

I like to hypo too! I am a self avowed "hypomaniac" that being said nothing really to show for it...yet! YET!

Aiden try Mahler vs Gord see what you think!

[Todd A. Pletcher]

Now that I have commented before and several have already answered, I will give my opinion on the subject, I will only give my opinion regarding the Turf Sprinters division, which is the only one that I dedicate myself to, compared to the legends of the game with Turf Sprinters, I am a novice, I mean the big.

Kent Saunders
Laura Smith

there are many others but those two for me are the elite when it comes to Turf Sprinters.

Having said this, here is my personal opinion, I think that the Hypo is very important, as much as 40% of the equation, I give 30% to the pedegri and another 30% to the luck factor.

In other words, if you breed with a hypo A and a good pedigree, so you don't have the luck factor on your side, most likely you'll still get a stakes, maybe not a freak, to get a freak is where I think the luck factor goes more, for example I think it works like that.

hypos: 40%
pedigree: 30%
luck: 30%

Put yourself that when breeding you opted for 35% of hypos almost the maximum, for pedegri you opted for 25% almost the maximum you are adding 60% correct? Well, and you opted for 0% in the luck factor, then you opted for a 60% foal, very likely it was stakes. Now another example, if you opted for 30% with hypos and 25% pedegri, you add 55% correct but you obtain the maximum in luck, 30% summaries 85% you would have a good chance of getting a freak.

By this I mean that to get a freak you have to count on the luck factor, even if you have the best hypo, even if you have the best pedigree, if the luck factor is not on your side you will never get a freak.

[Kelly Haggerty]

To conclude and I am speaking in the Turf Sprinters division, this means that the "luck" factor has more weight, that is, what they call (random Slide) than the Hypo A

plenty of As

I have never seen an A+ in any division, so.. i am skeptical they exist!... I have a list of sires you are more likely to A with in TS if you PM me, maybe we can work something out!

To Start, try Gord's Secret! only 6 slots left!

Horse Flat Steeplechaser
Impacts A+ C+
A Choice of Evils A C
A Fighter A C

[Andrew James]

I hypo to get a sense of the mare or sires quality and test which divisions they are suited to breed in.

I do not hypo to test the pedigree match or "cross." There is not enough variance between sires/mares to make hypoing for cross effective.

[Kent Saunders]

Plenty of A's in TS (no A+ to my knowledge), which in itself then puts more weight to other factors. Keep in mind that the game itself is geared to have no more than 2% Freaks (per the Steward). Also I am of the belief that we get more from Late Bloomers/Progressives than previously. I typically breed about 120 -140 TS. I get about 1 Freak out of the box every 2-3 seasons. However I get several that upgrade mid-season at 2, and more that upgrade at 3 and mid season at 3. In total I might get 4-6 out of a "Crop" (some are just good Allw types and some are legit Stakes performers). And I am breeding about 70-80% straight A Hypo's. Do I hypo every one? Nope. I typically use Hypo's for newer Studs and newer mares. My bottom line is Hypo'ing is a great tool, to be used as part of the breeding equation. How much? I really don't know.
As a side note on Hypo's...A+ is relatively common in Mixers/Standardbreds and Chasers. To my knowledge you can very very rarely get A+ with TB Turf Milers/Dirt Routers/AWS and maybe AWR.

Kent