Has the addition...

[Mark Mclaughlin]

...of morning line odds ever been discussed? TYIA.

[John Smith]

Ive never heard much - asked a vet once same...think may be some legal implications if for real...but the pools in Sim dollars are split in a similar fashion, I believe - problem is very low pools. The GAME does provide a 5% return on singular bets though even if no one else bets.

If you may be speaking of hypothetical favorites, somehow generated on the pps - I have nothing on that...

[John Smith]

Would there be a bigger ML fave than Jews in Space this year at the Scup? https://www.simhorseracing.com/race.php?RaceID=2182020

IRL would this horse be 1-9?
or would the 7 million dollar Hold My Crown eat into that? How would a hypothetical ML be generated? Points perhaps?

[Mark Mclaughlin]

Yeah, JS, you're up against it there but your entry is no slouch either. I don't know how they would be generated and it could be tough programming. I imagine it would be part of the race closing process. I'm not interested in betting but would like to see them as just a general synopsis of what you're up against without having to eyeball every entry pre-race. I think it could be fun. Just curious.

[John Smith]

Lets assume a 25% takeout which is absurd but happening at some track at times I believe. I know Jon White overshoots this number a lot and is considered one of the best.

JIS - 2-1
HMC 4-1
Ink Blak 6-1
GT 8-1
Soldat 10-1
Plakely 12-1
Macuahitl 12-1
EBeau 15-1
Fearless Em 18-1
Gargoyle 18-1
War is Over 20-1

I just used class of wins as a major determining factor in my hypothetical - but maybe an algorithm that weights class of wins, pace perhaps, trainer win % sire/dam influences? If so, I am sure this would need adjusting - surface experience (good, muddy,firm, etc...), post positions maybe

but maybe after the race is locked...might be cool

[Nicole Marie]

Lets assume a 25% takeout which is absurd but happening at some track at times I believe. I know Jon White overshoots this number a lot and is considered one of the best.

JIS - 2-1
HMC 4-1
Ink Blak 6-1
GT 8-1
Soldat 10-1
Plakely 12-1
Macuahitl 12-1
EBeau 15-1
Fearless Em 18-1
Gargoyle 18-1
War is Over 20-1

I just used class of wins as a major determining factor in my hypothetical - but maybe an algorithm that weights class of wins, pace perhaps, trainer win % sire/dam influences? If so, I am sure this would need adjusting - surface experience (good, muddy,firm, etc...), post positions maybe

but maybe after the race is locked...might be cool

Pleakley won a state bred stakes that I created for him and only one other horse entered so we can make his odds a little higher I think

[John Smith]

Lets assume a 25% takeout which is absurd but happening at some track at times I believe. I know Jon White overshoots this number a lot and is considered one of the best.

JIS - 2-1
HMC 4-1
Ink Blak 6-1
GT 8-1
Soldat 10-1
Plakely 12-1
Macuahitl 12-1
EBeau 15-1
Fearless Em 18-1
Gargoyle 18-1
War is Over 20-1

I just used class of wins as a major determining factor in my hypothetical - but maybe an algorithm that weights class of wins, pace perhaps, trainer win % sire/dam influences? If so, I am sure this would need adjusting - surface experience (good, muddy,firm, etc...), post positions maybe

but maybe after the race is locked...might be cool

Pleakley won a state bred stakes that I created for him and only one other horse entered so we can make his odds a little higher I think

Ok...
Revised ML!
JIS - 2-1
HMC 3-1
Ink Blak 5-1
GT 6-1
Soldat 9-1
Macuahitl 10-1
EBeau 12-1
Fearless Em 15-1
Gargoyle 18-1
Pleakely 20-1
War is Over 25-1

[The Steward]

We pretty much discuss this every single SIM year, and every single SIM year we can't get it off the ground. I am not mathematically inclined whatsoever, and the Admin doesn't understand parimutuel wagering, so we've never figured out how to generate this. I've interviewed several morning line odds makers, and once they start talking about the 120 and adding up and I'm already out of the conversation.

[Art K Stables]

Take the entire pool, take off 20% and the odds are apportioned proportionally to the amount wagered , what’s the mystery?

[The Steward]

Take the entire pool, take off 20% and the odds are apportioned proportionally to the amount wagered , what’s the mystery?

Because we're talking about generating a morning line first. And writing code to generate a morning line well before a dollar is ever wagered is what's stopping us.

[Abby Brooks]

Take the entire pool, take off 20% and the odds are apportioned proportionally to the amount wagered , what’s the mystery?

Because we're talking about generating a morning line first. And writing code to generate a morning line well before a dollar is ever wagered is what's stopping us.

I sent you a message Emily, I have an idea.

[Xander Zone]

the funny thing about that race is i honestly did not think i would get beat

[Art K Stables]

Oh, well a morning line is nothing more than an opinion based on a handicappers estimation of what bettors will do and is often much different than what the actual odds are which are totally based on the betting of course.. I guess that can be simulated based on the stats which I think can basically take in the avg class , avg rating , and earnings per race . With less info workout times can be taken into account and then all that converted to win percentages and then reduced based on 20% reduction in the payout pool , so for example if a horse has a 20% chance to win a race his true odds are 4-1 but with the take out it’s reduced to 3-1 .. I assume this is all obvious info

[Ronnie Dee]

Take the entire pool, take off 20% and the odds are apportioned proportionally to the amount wagered , what’s the mystery?

Because we're talking about generating a morning line first. And writing code to generate a morning line well before a dollar is ever wagered is what's stopping us.

I have very serious doubts that you could generate a ML that would be anyway reflective of the way players' wager.

For example, Lord's Champion won the
Year-65 Week-13 Day-5 South Pacific (11pm) Australia Race Course (AUS) Condition: Firm. Race 11 - 6 furlongs. Turf. Thoroughbred.
"Chimborazo Stakes."
She paid $183 on a $100 wager.
Then she ran
Year-65 Week-16 Day-5 (8pm) The Spa (NY) Condition: Good. Race 3 - 5 furlongs. Turf. Thoroughbred. "Steward's Cup Filly and Mare Turf Sprint."
She paid $6,972 on a $100 wager. That is, she was an odds on favorite in her previous start in a race (with a much bigger purse) but then she was a huge long shot in her next start.

Further, the horses that finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the "Chimborazo Stakes" ran in the
Year-65 Week-16 Day-5 (8pm) The Spa (NY) Condition: Good. Race 1 - 5 furlongs. Turf. Thoroughbred. "Steward's Cup Turf Sprint."
They finished 3rd, 8th, and 1st with the winner paying $24,192 on a $100 wager.