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1) How is it decided which horses are "select"? For instance, this horse was put in the non-select auction last year, and its workouts indicate it probably is a freak: https://www.simhorseracing.com/horse.ph ... ID=1766326
There are some relatively bum pedigrees in the select auction as well, some freaks and some stakes. Is it just a trick question? It's like a "gotcha" thing?
I haven't accurately picked a TBS freak in 10 years. It's a little frustrating.
2) Why do you guys bid so early? If you plan to be around at the time the auction ends, what is the strategic purpose of bidding even 5 minutes before the auction closes? Do you have dial-up internet? Seems like you're just asking to pay higher prices. Would love some clarification.
Got bombed, got frozen
Got finally off to finally dozin’
I bid early to mark the ones I am interested in. I get outbid nearly every time because I don't "chase" the SB as much as others. The ones I have gotten have been ok, but I have been able to do better breeding, buying from players, and claiming. If I had lots of cash I might think differently, but on a budget it doesn't make that much difference when you bid. The prices will get bid up regardless, from pinhooking.
I bid to get a few underbids in just in case I get sniped. I also tend to put my bid in just in case I cannot be around at the end of an auction. Sometimes I think I can make it, other times I get a call or work comes up or kids need something asap, as such, there is a chance I cannot be ready to go in the final minute. That uncertainty causes me to put a bid in earlier than just waiting for the final seconds. If I can be around, I always try to make sure I'm only leading one of my top choices so I can actively bid on another horse if I get stressed and/or the situation calls for it. This is just my thought process.
You are correct in that the fuel x humankind colt was born a freak.
It’s a bit of game theory…if everyone did as you suggest then there would be very small bids on all the horses…when do you decide to bid your max bid on the #1 horse you want (or do you say everyone will want that horse I’ll go for horse #2, but some people may be thinking the same thing, let me snipe my #3 horse..and then you do and see your #1 horse went for less than what you paid for #3)? The longer you wait, the greater uncertainty of knowing if you will be the max bid…unless you know you have the most cash, you run the risk of walking away with nothing.
In a game where you only want 1 horse then your strategy is the only one that makes sense..wait till the last second, put your max bid in and see if you win (this method discourages other players from showing their cards as well..and your hope is that another player puts in a smaller max bid than they would’ve orherwise done if they knew your bid was greater)
Given there are multiple items to bid on in the auction (but limited to win 1) it may be beneficial to the bidder to know, in advance, if they are “out” on their top choice so they can move down to their next choice..if I like 40 horses in the select and I want to be sure I walk away with something, then I bid early cause it lets me narrow down my choices…now this strategy may lead me paying more on the final horse I win, and potentially me getting a horse lower on my list, but it’s prevents me getting sniped on the “top” horses cause I thought I could win, and then I see the #10 horse on my list go for pennies compared to what I would’ve paid…I would have rather bid early and saw I wasn’t highest yet or sniped with enough time to pivot to a horse lower on my list..with the time constraint, it’s easier to just do this throughout the auction than last 2 minutes in my opinion. People may disagree with the approach but it’s my reasoning for why I bid early and not just sit and wait till the very end
There are some relatively bum pedigrees in the select auction as well, some freaks and some stakes. Is it just a trick question? It's like a "gotcha" thing?
The way that Keeneland et al pick their select horses (there used to be a select July sale, and now they just have a select session the first two days of the yearling sale), is a mix of absolutely standout pedigrees (siblings to top horses, out of top horses) or have absolutely knockout physicals (ie the freaks with suspect pedigrees in the SIM). I know going into it that my auction will have 50ish of my best babies, so I start clicking on horses. Wow, this one (the yearling linked above) is a half to a NICE 2yo (the 2yo linked above), let's put him in, oh and this one is out of a superstar dam, oh and this one looks really fast (would be a good physical in real life), once I get to ~50 I just stop looking at that point. That also guarantees that some freaks will make it into the "lesser" sales so you don't have to be a top ~50 buyer to possibly get one, but it's much less likely that your horse will come with bells and whistles in the other sales.
"There's no secret to training a good horse. It's a matter of being fortunate enough to get one."
"Funny how you often regret the stuff you didn't do more than the stuff you did do" - GG
The Hub Group of Farms: where saving your boarding and shipping dollars is always a priority, especially when you don't know where the next race will take your horse.
Lucas Davenport wrote: ↑4 months ago
And THAT was great answer to the question posed!
Indeed! The Steward's response may change a lot of players' targets and strategies. And I'll STILL get a stakes, no matter what I do!
Lots of good engagement in this thread, thanks everyone. I missed all the posts until just now because it got buried and i forgot.
Gavin Guile wrote: ↑4 months ago
It’s a bit of game theory…if everyone did as you suggest then there would be very small bids on all the horses…when do you decide to bid your max bid on the #1 horse you want (or do you say everyone will want that horse I’ll go for horse #2, but some people may be thinking the same thing, let me snipe my #3 horse..and then you do and see your #1 horse went for less than what you paid for #3)? The longer you wait, the greater uncertainty of knowing if you will be the max bid…unless you know you have the most cash, you run the risk of walking away with nothing.
In a game where you only want 1 horse then your strategy is the only one that makes sense..wait till the last second, put your max bid in and see if you win (this method discourages other players from showing their cards as well..and your hope is that another player puts in a smaller max bid than they would’ve orherwise done if they knew your bid was greater)
Given there are multiple items to bid on in the auction (but limited to win 1) it may be beneficial to the bidder to know, in advance, if they are “out” on their top choice so they can move down to their next choice..if I like 40 horses in the select and I want to be sure I walk away with something, then I bid early cause it lets me narrow down my choices…now this strategy may lead me paying more on the final horse I win, and potentially me getting a horse lower on my list, but it’s prevents me getting sniped on the “top” horses cause I thought I could win, and then I see the #10 horse on my list go for pennies compared to what I would’ve paid…I would have rather bid early and saw I wasn’t highest yet or sniped with enough time to pivot to a horse lower on my list..with the time constraint, it’s easier to just do this throughout the auction than last 2 minutes in my opinion. People may disagree with the approach but it’s my reasoning for why I bid early and not just sit and wait till the very end
Well said! I think this differs from the strategy of most players, which I would roughly boil down to "monkey see, monkey do."
Durzo Blint wrote: ↑4 months ago
I bid to get a few underbids in just in case I get sniped. I also tend to put my bid in just in case I cannot be around at the end of an auction. Sometimes I think I can make it, other times I get a call or work comes up or kids need something asap, as such, there is a chance I cannot be ready to go in the final minute. That uncertainty causes me to put a bid in earlier than just waiting for the final seconds. If I can be around, I always try to make sure I'm only leading one of my top choices so I can actively bid on another horse if I get stressed and/or the situation calls for it. This is just my thought process.
Fair enough!
Durzo Blint wrote: ↑4 months ago
You are correct in that the fuel x humankind colt was born a freak.
Well, * me then!
Kelly Haggerty wrote: ↑4 months ago
I bid early to mark the ones I am interested in. I get outbid nearly every time because I don't "chase" the SB as much as others. The ones I have gotten have been ok, but I have been able to do better breeding, buying from players, and claiming. If I had lots of cash I might think differently, but on a budget it doesn't make that much difference when you bid. The prices will get bid up regardless, from pinhooking.
I mark them with bids too, but I don't lay a high bid down. I think it's especially funny when players put something like a 150k high bid on most pristine horses. I guess for underbids? Who knows!
Got bombed, got frozen
Got finally off to finally dozin’
