Master of Deception

[Nicole Marie]

Regarding hypos and how much they may or may not indicate, I realize this is only one example, but:

Roughian and Outlawed are full siblings, so exact same pedigree. Roughian, obviously the better racer, but both stakes winners. Roughian hypo'd A- to Improvisational, Outlawed flat A.

I bred Outlawed to Improvisational, got an allowance late bloomer filly who remained allowance when she peaked (FWIW, she has the breeding shed comment and is currently a four year old). I know Outlawed was bred back to Improvisational but I don't know how that one galloped.
Stormy bred Roughian to Improvisational, got a freak (late bloomer I think) colt, who is currently a two year old.

Now I would have assumed that, exact same pedigree to the same stallion would be the same hypo, OR the better racer would get the higher hypo, but that isn't what happened. Outlawed hypo'd better to Improvisational than Roughian. BUT the Roughian foal galloped two levels better, and Roughian overall has been the better producer of the two as well. (And of course, it wasn't like they were A+ and B hypos, they were A and A- which I feel can be a minimal difference).

Now this is a small sample size, and of course gender of foal and the slide can also play a part, but I definitely use hypos as a tool and not as the sole or even primary decision maker, and there aren't too many circumstances were A vs A- would turn me off of a stud, especially one that in this case has had a lot of praise from Em, be it in forums or on the broadcasts.

[Shannon Hunt]

I would take hypos with a grain of salt in general, they're one part of a complex system. I've seen plenty of studs that hypo near the top tier when they retire but the foal stats don't reflect that same ability (none mentioned by name because I'm not here to talk smack on studs). Then you have studs like Improvisational who hypo well but have a dozen or more in the same division that currently hypo better, yet outperform many of the better-hypoing studs. Under Stars is another one who I really liked, he got B+ to a tester mare of mine who gets A- to many studs and A to two elite studs (from what I've tested so far at least), but he produced three millionaires and many more stakes winners, which is more than some of the A- studs on that list can claim.

[Laura Ferguson]

I also don't think any information regarding MoD has been revealed beyond what most people would have guessed from his hypos and/or would have been revealed if he was profiled in the Edge.

[Cleo Patra]

I also don't think any information regarding MoD has been revealed beyond what most people would have guessed from his hypos and/or would have been revealed if he was profiled in the Edge.

This.

The horse has insane female family depth. He’s a better chance than most of being an excellent sire.

[John Smith]

I also don't think any information regarding MoD has been revealed beyond what most people would have guessed from his hypos and/or would have been revealed if he was profiled in the Edge.

This.

The horse has insane female family depth. He’s a better chance than most of being an excellent sire.

but would this horse have been "privatized?" Sure Gavin will do the right thing - maybe even offer some free breedings or initial foals next season! Maybe even have a random mare spin off to see which ones to offer!

[Rochelle Bos]

Seems we got our W6 edge after all?

[Cleo Patra]

but would this horse have been "privatized?" Sure Gavin will do the right thing - maybe even offer some free breedings or initial foals next season! Maybe even have a random mare spin off to see which ones to offer!

I like Gavin, and I like the horse, but if he stays private then 4 years of planned crosses to him go out the window. Given the specific family, I had quite a few I wanted to try with him to get the nice blue hen double crosses I get a kick out of breeding. Some of the crosses I’d like to try with him are currently yearlings.

That said, I don’t tend to wait around for horses when I’m on a breeding kick. A lot of nice sires missed out on Special to You back when she was active because I bred her first thing each season and they’d privatised their books or not opened slots within 24 hours of the year starting. Valar never would have existed without the stallion I wanted being booked full so I went to Kementari instead. Finding good alternatives in the router divisions is not hard. Only 4 or 5 of my I think around 30 millionaire homebreds have been by flavour of the moment stallions.

[Brian Leavitt]

Expecting breeding shed freaks to hypo like Valley of Fire or Impacts is and then being incredibly disappointed when they don't and being down on them as sires as a result is a mistake I've made too many times already, and I've basically hobbled the career of a couple of my stallions because of it (something I'm trying to fix this year with my contest)

Even if I'm critical about retiring MoD this early and think it to be a hasty move, his pedigree and performance alone would actually make me think he'd have more ability in producing superstars than a horse like VoF. It seems like it'd be a waste to retire him and let nobody else breed to him.

[Danny Derby]

Everyone can play the game in their own way, no need to keep piling on here.

[J.P Dogood]

I totally understand Gavin’s disappointment and hopefully I’ll have a runner the caliber of MoD to be disappointed with.

For what it’s worth I try to think back when Em first implemented these comments. If I remember correctly the idea was to get players to hold on to horses longer and give them a chance at least in the shed if not on the track (I can’t imagine how many horses get sent to AJ who would’ve been great).

It would be too big of a pain to exclude great horses from this system so that’s when we get freaks with breeding shed comments. So even though you’re keeping your freak yearling no matter what, the code is still written to give you these comments. Obviously it’s a bummer to not have another DR horse hypoing like VoF but that’s why this game is a (lovable) b*tch.

Feel bad Gavin’s being attacked and feel bad Em just gave us a ton of info regarding these comments/breeding and got burned by it

[Eric Nalbone]

I mean, for anyone disappointed that Gavin has made him private, based on that female family, the good news is that between my barn and Danny's barn... there are about six million possible stallions to choose from. It's probably the most prolific tail female line in the game, so if you'd like to access it there are stallions from it everywhere. Everyone's got a right to price their own stallions and manage them the way that they want to. As far as The Steward sharing specific information about him, that happens all over if you pay attention. Read The Edge. Listen to the race calls, for example (they're archived on the YouTube channel that is publicly accessible if your time zone doesn't work). She literally just said in a preview for a race on Friday talking about Pegasus that we're all sleeping on Strange The Dreamer.

Information is information, understanding mechanics is helpful, but the game is not and has never been formulaic in a 100% predictable fashion. It's not just follow numbers - obviously it's numerically driven, but there's plenty of randomness and too many factors to control all of them and manage all of their interactions.

I'm not sure I'd be too concerned about exactly where he hypos relative to another stallion with a specific mare. I just bred two superstar mares (Schuylkill and Goldfinch) to Napoleon on B+ hypos and got freaks from it, and nobody is concerned that Napoleon is a bad sire. If I were to go to him, I wouldn't be concerned at all with B+ or A- or A or A+ hypos out of the gate. I want to see gallops, then I want to see races from offspring. I have a War Like Me son (A Soldier's Prayer) that just retired that is clearly not of the same caliber, but hypo'ed pretty middle of the road (some A's, some B+s, some B's) and had a great crop of gallopers for the caliber of mare he got. Ya just roll with it. Try the stallions out, see what they do.

The comments in the game give you hope, they're not a promise. You still have to find the *right* mares for the *right* stallions, then train the horses properly, and get lucky to not bump into someone who has just done the whole thing a little bit better or gotten a little bit luckier with random slides, race setup, weather, etc. Since comments have been available (racelines being the first) there have been gripes when a comment doesn't align with an outcome (we all complain about sad freaks, and all have blue hens that we can't get to throw a good horse to save their life), and that's fine. Being disappointed is fine. It keeps the game interesting that sometimes, horses *don't* do what we expect. We just complain a lot more about hope that isn't realized than no expectations that magically are over-fulfilled.

Gavin - play your game your way,. You've got a nice horse and managed him well on the track, keep on going managing him how you want. What you do with his stud career is your business, but if I were you I'd be unconcerned about either his hypos or anything said about him in this thread.

[John Smith]

I mean, for anyone disappointed that Gavin has made him private, based on that female family, the good news is that between my barn and Danny's barn... there are about six million possible stallions to choose from. It's probably the most prolific tail female line in the game, so if you'd like to access it there are stallions from it everywhere.

Well..there is principle perspectives and personal ones...principle wise it's a foul to me - I'd say race call info is less public than forum posts or even the subscription based edge, but I am not really against info sharing either, but arriving at the 9,999,999 on one's own like fire meets gasoline to "privatize," versus a forum post or even an article or race call shout out is a push...practice wise, 50k is "privatizing" a stallion to me, personally...get much beyond that price and I am looking elsewhere.

He was rightfully asking about misunderstanding hypos but then interprets his bad hypos into a $9,999,999 stud fee with no foals on the ground or probably much interest given the saturated marked for that line as you point out.

Anyway, communication is tough - I think we shift perspectives/gears without knowing it. I personally do not feel fouled or harmed in anyway, but the response is in my opinion not from free market demands but rather controlled market bonus so to fall back to an owner can do what they want in a free market when it clearly isn't may need a reframeing at least.

Look, Dr. Estimate is still 15k, and so is Immersions....Now MOD is a more reasonable 500k! from an initial $3,500....so clearly this harms newer players more that may have given him a shot at the low price and been rewarded.

[Gavin Guile]

Thanks Eric for your post and kind words.

John, the amount of the stud fee hasn’t mattered as I reserved all the slots, no one could breed to him at 3,500, 500k or 9m. I have offered 3 breedings to other players at 3,500…..so my expected stud fee revenue is $10,500. Maybe once all the dust settles I’ll open him to the public but I don’t want people thinking I benefited in any way. My original post was to gain clarity on the comments and how they related to each other and the hypos I saw (I was obviously disappointed as I interpreted the breeding shed comment to mean something different based on how I thought the two scales worked). I think we gained valuable info in that the breeding scale and racing scale are not in the same distribution with similar bell curves.

[John Smith]

Thanks Eric for your post and kind words.

John, the amount of the stud fee hasn’t mattered as I reserved all the slots, no one could breed to him at 3,500, 500k or 9m. I have offered 3 breedings to other players at 3,500…..so my expected stud fee revenue is $10,500. Maybe once all the dust settles I’ll open him to the public but I don’t want people thinking I benefited in any way. My original post was to gain clarity on the comments and how they related to each other and the hypos I saw (I was obviously disappointed as I interpreted the breeding shed comment to mean something different based on how I thought the two scales worked). I think we gained valuable info in that the breeding scale and racing scale are not in the same distribution with similar bell curves.

We gained valuable info on scales - I agree.

[Nicole Marie]

Maybe once all the dust settles I’ll open him to the public but I don’t want people thinking I benefited in any way.

I know I don't have the type of mares that people hope might visit their stallion, but for whatever it's worth, if you ever open him up, he will get a few from me. A hypo would have to be objectively bad, flat B or below, for that to turn me off if I otherwise liked the stud for my mare. My first and to date only SC winner was off a B+ hypo and so was my first homebred freak (not the same horse).