Improving With Age?

[Lily Wilkins]

In your experience, how often does a horse noticeably improve from age three to four? I'm not talking about gallop comment (LB, Prog, Peak) i'm talking about race performance.

I have this filly:
https://www.simhorseracing.com/horse.ph ... ID=1705820
Now, I know mixers can be VERY iffy, but I had somewhat bigger expectations of her when I bought her. At the time, she was one of the fastest workers of all time, was a Freak-Progressive, and looked like she could conquer anything. Fast-forward two seasons, and she is genuinely ticking me off.

She hit Freak Peak during the Week 9 gallop changes this season (Y66) so she's only been peak for half a season. When she peaked, I was hopeful that she would finally run well, but she seems to have gotten worse.
She is a Breeding Shed filly, and her dam has been a phenomenal broodmare; do I retire her in two weeks and see if she's better suited as a broodmare, or do I keep her in training and see if she takes a step forward at 4? I might regret not retiring her this year if she sucks again next year, but I also hate to miss out on campaigning her if she's meant to finally hit her stride.

Which gamble would you take?

[Jo Ferris]

She's ticking me off and I don't even own her anymore, get your act together missy!! She genuinely looked like Heroes' best foal, fast works, being a freak from the get go and really liked that cross.

In my experience I've had quite a few. Two recent ones are Son of a Brother who improved midway through his 3yo season and seems to have gone off the deep end a year later. Then there's In Our Blood who's gallop improved midway through year 64 but his racing performance didn't really show the change till the following year at 4 and now at 5 he's doing even better.

Whether to retire or race that's a gamble no matter which way you go. If you race her another year, she'll probably win a stakes or, she's good enough for it. Now will they be big stakes/G1/SC? Probably not unless she turns the wick up.
If you retire her you run the gamble of whether or not she'll be a good producer. With her being breeding shed she shouldn't be a slouch as a broodmare, but always a gamble.
One thing I like to do is look at who I'd breed them to if I'm looking at retiring a mare. Any old studs I don't want to miss out on? Who are the options? Are there many options I like for her? Sometimes when I look there aren't many options out there I like and that eases my mind on deciding to race them another year (looking at you Tomahawk)

If she were mine (granted I'm mostly a breeder at this point) I'd retire her, but I also don't enjoy the racing side as much as breeding (I'm also still drooling over her as a broodmare prospect). If she's even half as good of a producer as her dam you'll have one heck of a broodmare on your hands. Question is what do you want? Do you want to take the chance on racing her another year? Or do you want to retire her and hope she's a better producer?

[Craig Mcgee]

Personally I will not retire a filly until their 4th year no matter the gallop, but once they hit 4 and if they go 3 races in a row without earning anything then I retire and check to see if they are worth breeding. Now if it is an awesome performer at 4 I may let them race into their 5th year.

But it is personal preference. Depends on you as to what you want to do.

[Autumn Blackmill]

I would also keep her on the track. I wouldn't retire a Stakes/Freak who has only just peaked mid-season, especially at 3, because my (limited) experience has been that 3yo's are just difficult sometimes. I would be curious to see if she perks up at 4 or even older. Her dam didn't win her first graded stakes until she was 4, and she posted all of her best speed figures during her 4yo season. Plus this filly is from the first crop of a GP stud so we really don't know if his offspring want to be older or not. She could have shown her talent early in her works, but not live up to it until she's older. For the price of one foal it would be worth it to see what she does as a 4yo. I think the setup into the new year off of a barrier is a brilliant move as well.

(All this said as a TB trainer, my mixer experience is limited)

[Shannon Hunt]

Both of these mares peaked midseason y63. Arguably done their best work y65 and y66. Mixers are weird, they'll whiff by a whisker a dozen races in a row, and then they just have to hit the right stride and suddenly they're on a roll.
https://www.simhorseracing.com/horse.ph ... ID=1497562
https://www.simhorseracing.com/horse.ph ... ID=1497596

[Shannon Hunt]

I also raced this guy back when I was part of his partnership, I don't recall exactly when he peaked but it was far earlier than his sudden hot streak https://www.simhorseracing.com/horse.ph ... ID=1428974

[Lily Wilkins]

Thank you for the input everyone I think we’ll keep chugging along next year and see what happens!