Stks/pk/brave/career/like mud

[John Smith]

I must be missing something to have a longer career horse fall off so badly… https://www.simhorseracing.com/horse.ph ... ID=1670074

[Eric Nalbone]

I'd just back off her a little bit. Go back to just a few works/gallops and a longer break. Keep her away from any unrestricted company and find a nice little restricted allowance at Kanashi Wau park after that.

She's just tired and sick of facing boys, you need confidence builders now. Maybe you get her back, maybe you get a broodmare. Can be hard to bring them back if they go over the edge!

[Meghan Kingsley]

Eric, how do you do a longer break for a horse like John's? I have a few I've tried, and they never come back... maybe I'm not doing long enough, or not working them right or whatever.

[John Smith]

I'd just back off her a little bit. Go back to just a few works/gallops and a longer break. Keep her away from any unrestricted company and find a nice little restricted allowance at Kanashi Wau park after that.

She's just tired and sick of facing boys, you need confidence builders now. Maybe you get her back, maybe you get a broodmare. Can be hard to bring them back if they go over the edge!

Thanks. This confidence thing has befuddled me from the start - trying to get a win to build confidence but not to drop it so much it may lose a lot of confidence on a loss, is a line I am apparently am not handling so well. How a horse knows she is in an allowance race or a stakes race or claimer for that matter is something I struggle to accept.

[Kelly Haggerty]

I would BT W4 D7 to fix confidence, then write her a restricted in the mud for her next. Build her back up to tougher competition gradually. I have a few that require a little extra TLC in that department. It isn't that they "know" what kind of race they are in. It is the relative toughness of the competition and the way things are programmed, similar to the drop off in speed figures we see for horses that lose stakes. We know that horse was capable of running a better time and getting a better fig, they've proven it; however, put them in a graded stakes and they perform at a much lower level when the program accounts for all the factors of fitness, ability, confidence, energy, class, and whatever we don't know about yet .

[John Smith]

I would BT W4 D7 to fix confidence, then write her a restricted in the mud for her next. Build her back up to tougher competition gradually. I have a few that require a little extra TLC in that department. It isn't that they "know" what kind of race they are in. It is the relative toughness of the competition and the way things are programmed, similar to the drop off in speed figures we see for horses that lose stakes.

But its my understanding a loss in say an ALW race would hurt confidence more than losing say a G2 race.

But I also understand it that putting horses in stakes races and not winning may only be good for 4/5 races or so? befuddling if true.

[Lori Hamill]

viewtopic.php?p=346641&hilit=confidence#p346641

[Lori Hamill]

viewtopic.php?p=346641&hilit=confidence#p346641

Edit to add: I think this is what you were looking for John, from The Steward:
How to Regain Confidence?
A lot of people think you need to drop a stakes horse all the way into an allowance to guarantee a win. This is actually almost worse, unless you can really guarantee the victory. A stakes horse getting beat in an allowance only hurts their confidence more. Look for an easier stakes in a lighter racing circuit instead. A single win makes the horse fully confident again.

[Kelly Haggerty]

I would BT W4 D7 to fix confidence, then write her a restricted in the mud for her next. Build her back up to tougher competition gradually. I have a few that require a little extra TLC in that department. It isn't that they "know" what kind of race they are in. It is the relative toughness of the competition and the way things are programmed, similar to the drop off in speed figures we see for horses that lose stakes.

But its my understanding a loss in say an ALW race would hurt confidence more than losing say a G2 race.

But I also understand it that putting horses in stakes races and not winning may only be good for 4/5 races or so? befuddling if true.

Stakes are harder to win but yes, a loss in allowance hurts confidence more. If you BT and write a restricted race that sets up for her preferences, she should win or come very close. If not, time for a drop in class.

[Eric Nalbone]

If it were me? I'm looking for stakes that come up massively light for some stupid reason, giving them a break where I use works or gallops to maintain fitness, and just waiting till I find a weirdly light stake, which happens all the time if you look consistently.

But it's just not an easy thing to do once you lose them, as I said. Sometimes once they're over the edge it's just better to retire and breed them and get started on getting to a 2yo that isn't over that edge. I've been doing this a long time and there's just unfortunately no easy answer or tried and true formula.

For the record, this notion was why I backed off Prince Philip in favor of an easy wrapup to his season to prepare for a 4yo campaign and didn't run him in the Classic off three straight losses (even though all were excellent races in two Triple Crown races and the Midsummer Classic). It's easier to not lose them in the first place than to get them back, but even that just isn't an exact science. I truly have no idea if it would have been detrimental to run Prince Philip in the Classic or not, and he's a freaking Derby winner. I contemplated if Signaling was done after the Arc and her other weird little midyear loss, and then she blitzed the SC Turf and is now the only horse of either gender to win the SC Turf twice, so complete opposite decision to press on instead of back off but I knew if Signaling called it, I'd retire her and send her to Equinox, while I want multiple more seasons from Prince Philip.

[John Smith]

viewtopic.php?p=346641&hilit=confidence#p346641

Edit to add: I think this is what you were looking for John, from The Steward:
How to Regain Confidence?
A lot of people think you need to drop a stakes horse all the way into an allowance to guarantee a win. This is actually almost worse, unless you can really guarantee the victory. A stakes horse getting beat in an allowance only hurts their confidence more. Look for an easier stakes in a lighter racing circuit instead. A single win makes the horse fully confident again.

Yes, I had that in mind when I dropped her, but figured she'd win for fun...seems they don't do that so easily... I don't know, I feel like one should be able to drop for a win and the horse not know its in an alw race versus a stakes race.

[Ash Tarasin]

Yes, I had that in mind when I dropped her, but figured she'd win for fun...seems they don't do that so easily...

It may be trickier to win allowances for fun when you send them out against previous grade 1 winners and consistent placers in grade 2s.

[Kelly Haggerty]

Yes, I had that in mind when I dropped her, but figured she'd win for fun...seems they don't do that so easily...

It may be trickier to win allowances for fun when you send them out against previous grade 1 winners and consistent placers in grade 2s.

And when they haven't gone from Hong Kong to Minnesota to New Zealand and then Paris over about 10 weeks.

[John Smith]

Yes, I had that in mind when I dropped her, but figured she'd win for fun...seems they don't do that so easily...

It may be trickier to win allowances for fun when you send them out against previous grade 1 winners and consistent placers in grade 2s.

Yes it came up strong, so have a lot of stakes this week. I dont know why are graded stakes winners/placers all dropping so low so often?

Maybe the “fake money” phenomenon like in all those digital card games? All in on unsuited disconnected cards?

Anyway, brought her back this year because of career comment. Losing an alw race after a series of stakes losses seems too finicky to be racing to me.

Not to mention if i have to keep my mudder in one location races arent easy to find.

G3 and G2 winners dropping in! https://www.simhorseracing.com/racewith ... ID=2329027

[Kelly Haggerty]

Most horses cannot chase top races every start, they need a breather. That is one reason for a drop. The other is to spread out when you have more than one, or to get a confidence boost. The game tries to mimic RL in a lot of cases, and this is one of those cases.

Not sure about the mud thing. I was told not to pay attention to that too much, but then on my weaker horses it really seemed to matter. That said, Marvelstar "loves mud" and she ran her career-best speed fig winning the SC on a fast track. It seems to vary, or maybe it varies depending on the quality of the horse and how much it needs in its favor. Your gal also has a definite racing style, so she is going to need a race with some speed in front of her probably. That may be more important than the mud, but you would have to experiment.