Just a question...

[Krystle Yanagihara]

This question might be a little silly, or stupid for the most part, but I was just wondering. Does breeding actually play that huge of a factor in producing a winner? Or is the majority of it just luck?

[Ara Davies]

In the SIM, unlike real life, breeding is everything. Training does make a slight difference, but a good pedigree is definitely the most important thing for a good racehorse. Like I said in another thread, if your horse isn't good and neither are its parents or siblings, why do you own it? A mare like that isn't going to do a thing for you.

My success comes entirely from the pedigrees of my horses. I'm a terrible trainer but a brilliant breeder. My horses still win left and right. Pedigree is important.

[Eric Nalbone]

Um, here's a not-so-secret-secret. Jon's barn? Ara's barn? My barn? Robin's barn? They're not accidents. The reason they keep churning out good horses? Not an accident. If you want a painful lesson on just how much it does matter, try randomly selecting your stallions. I'd even narrow it down to a list of the 30 best stallions in the game in my opinion, let you randomly select, and you'd maybe, maybe, maybe, maybe get 1 good horse out of it with stellar mares.


Direct quote from an article linked to off the Main Page ("About the Sim")

"Some guidelines to keep in mind:

1. Real horses come into the game with their real race records, but this does not necessarily mean that horses sired by Point Given will run best going long on the dirt. It does mean that Point Given comes in as the winner of the Belmont, Travers, and Santa Anita Derby, and is a son of Thunder Gulch.

2. It is not random. ALL horses have a formula - it's your job to figure them out.

3. Talk to your fellow players. There is a wealth of information to be gained by discussing events with the "pros," especially on the forum.

4. Pedigree is key."


Simply put, I could look through every one of your horses and tell you whether I believe they have value or not based on their pedigree. 95% of the time I believe I'd be very close to correct. What IS a little bit more random is finding the SUPERSTAR. Putting together a pedigree that looks nice is relatively easy once you're familiar with the process, but discerning the difference between a pedigree that is likely to give you a stakes-quality horse and a pedigree that may produce a Derby winner is a little bit harder.

-Eric

[Lisa Lange]

Breeding most definitly plays a factor in SIM. This is why if you have a cross that worked well once, chances are VERY good it will work well again. Same goes for the opposite, if it didn't work it wasn't due to bad luck but rather a poor combination. Someone else will have to answer whether luck plays anypart in the game, but I do know from experience that if you put the time into finding a good match, you will be rewarded. That doesn't necessarily mean your horse will become a G1 Stakes placed horse when its parents were both moderate Allowance horses but with the right cross, you can improve to varying degrees the babies raceing ability.

[Krystle Yanagihara]

Then again hasn't their been surprises here and there in the SIM? Like a horse totally outruns their pedigree and expectations of them? Dunno, not that I mind the pedigree bit. Just wondering if it's possible.

[Ara Davies]

Not really because of the way the horses are set up in the computer. Each yearling gets a rating when it's born based on how good the parents are and how well they mesh as a nick.

[The Steward]

The surprises come from nicks that are unknown. There are your "surprises" in the game, horses who outrun what you'd THINK their pedigrees would dictate, but then you look back far enough and see oh yes, I see how that horse would be good there, etc.

It's not just the first generation of parents that matter either, the database calculates nicks on more than one generation.

But at the same time, you don't need to worry about tracing back all the way to Eclipse.

[Ara Davies]

But at the same time, you don't need to worry about tracing back all the way to Eclipse.

*pictures Eric staring crestfallen at Em's response and beginning to delete the hundreds of pages of possible nicks from the 18th century he'd been working on for weeks*

[Eric Nalbone]

*G* The 18th century is reserved for special cases, like when I wrote my epic on Bull Lea. Remember that one?

[Ara Davies]

What? Did you write about his 12th great grandfather or something?

And no I don't remember, I can't even remember horses *I* bred half the time.

[The Steward]

I'm waiting for you to delve into the Godolphin Arabian, and perhaps the Arabians that created the Godolphin Arab.

One night I attempted to trace a SIM horse back that far. I got bored, I think.

[Eric Nalbone]

For those that weren't around back then, the Bull Lea Epic, reprinted in its entirety. Also, the references to an earlier post in that message refer to something I've long since forgotten, but I said entirety so I haven't deleted it:

"Going back several posts to Laura's post, that's definitely one of the best synopses of ideas that I've seen around here in a LONG time. Bravo, and I don't have much to say in response to that, except for the fact that the importation of those types of lines is somewhat predictable in the growth of a new industry. The development of these lines all began in Europe, and to repeat dozens of generations of breeding like that is practically impossible to do and maintain a viable industry.

Japanese racing, while restrictive, I do feel is opening somewhat. Darely recently obtained permission to race horses in Japan, which is a step in the right direction, and enough horses have made the trek to start drawing some comparisons, though it is a similar situation to the Melbourne Cup and such. Shipping in at the end of a brutal racing season with poor quarantine procedures does tend to hamper North American and European contenders, but for their part, the JRA is selective in their taking of entries for the cup, inviting only the best. Several notables have fizzled in recent years, though the Falbrav/Sarafan double last year had to be reassuring to American and European trainers.

On Matthew's point, I repeatedly have recognized the superiority of the European system as a whole, but I'll throw in this caveat. The Europeans have better methods of training horses, not necessarily breeding them. As such, it is no suprise to anyone when Daylami, Fantastic Light, Milan, Sakhee, Giant's Causeway, Hold That Tiger, Almutawakel, etc. cross the pond to preform very well. That fact that their training methods are quite probably superior to US methods, due in large part to the challenges presented by their racecourses are not questioned by many. However, when you want to consdier breeding, yes, El Prado is Irish, and nobody disputes the superiority of Sadler's Wells to any other turf line in the world, and if they do, I haven't heard them yet.

So while our leading sire last year was Irish, consider some of the other prominent European sires. Danehill, as Ara mentioned, was American bred. Machiavellian, sire of Almutawakel, is an American bred champion and a prominent sire line in Europe. Northern Dancer was a Canadian bred who raced in the US and stood in Maryland, and currently is, along with Raise A Native, one of the two most prominent sire lines around, so there's that connection.

In addition, it's worth noting that given Storm Cat's ability to sire offspring who excel on either surface, it is no surprise that the American influence in Europe is most strongly felt through sales yearlings purchased in the US and raced abroad. Those purchased by Coolmore and Godolphin, the most notably recent star being Dubai Destination are two examples. Ironically, just to highlight the very close ties between the industry, Dubai Destination is by Kingmambo, who is an American bred sired by Mr. Prospector, who is your traditional American speed influence. He's out of Miesque, a two time Breeders' Cup winner in the US, though largely a European star. Kingmambo himself was a star in Europe, and is now one of the US's most prominent stallions. As a stallion of global capabilities, I'd point to three horses: El Condor Pasa (Japan), Dubai Destination (Europe), Lemon Drop Kid (US). Add to that King's Best (Europe), Parade Ground (US), Parade Leader (US), Russian Rhythm (European), Voodoo Dancer (US), King Cugat (US), you see perhaps one of the best young stallions standing today. He's a horse designed for the world stage: by a traditional 'dirt' sire, out of a turf mare, a brilliant miler, and versatile sire. Storm Cat is the other best example of a global sire, though he lacks the strong links to Europe as a racehorse. His prowess as a sire of European runners is unquestioned, however: Giant's Causeway, Hold That Tiger, Sophisticat, Aljabr, Black Minnaloushe, Marino Marini, Statue Of Liberty, and 2nd generation descendant Johannesburg proved his capabilities with European runners. Hennessy is also providing an important link between Storm Cat and Australian breeding, as I understand many of his have been coming around and starting to win big races.

American-trained horses going to Europe are in no shape to win. To run over the demanding European turf courses would require an extended stay in Europe to acquire the necessary fitness levels demanded by those courses, and Europeans adjusted to those types of racetracks naturally would have the upper hand. The reverse is somewhat easier, though a few different problems are presented. Europeans must handle tighter turns in the United States than they are used to, a fast early pace, and a shorter stretch than is customary in Europe. Those hurdles are obviously not of as great a consequence as the reverse, evidenced by the unprecedented levels of European success in major American turf races over the last several years. American BRED horses, however, are quite possibly of the highest class in the world: Sadler's Wells himself is a US bred horse, with a strong US bred female family. His topside is Canadian/US. Further: take recent European star Galileo. By a US bred sire, out of a US bred mare tracing to Mr. Prospector. To Europe's credit, his tail-female line is German. The central KY breeding industry is unparalleled by anything in the world: it doesn't take a genius to trace the blood back to a US or Canadian bred descendant of Raise A Native or Mr. Prospector. This often can be done in three generations or less, despite the best efforts of individuals such as the Aga Khan, Khalid Abdullah, Coolmore, and Godolphin have achieved success breeding to European stallions who raced in Europe.

Maybe El Prado is more American than we all realized. He is by a US bred, out of a US bred. He traces to Sir Ivor, Tom Fool, Man O' War, etc. While Sir Ivor was another that raced in Europe, it was in America that he was bred and stood at stud. To find one of the last truly influential and completely European male line influences, you have to go as far back as Princequillo. He was the sire of 1950 HOTY Hill Prince and legendary broodmare Somethingroyal. Somethingroyal is, in turn, the dam of Secretariat, who is the most influential stallion in Storm Cat's female family, providing a brilliant outcross to the Storm Bird lines). Princequillo can also claim champion runner/producer Misty Morn, just to hit the tip of the iceberg.

From that point on, if my memory serves me properly, the trend slowly began to reverse itself: the Hancock family, so influential in bringing European lines to the US early in the 1900's, had no more need to import stock. They had established the dominance of the Teddy line (Teddy to Bull Dog to Bull Lea), which, following it further, gives you the forgotten legend Armed, Travers' winner Beau Prince, Bewitch (Champion 2 and 3 year old filly who defeated Citation), Citation (Triple Crown winner), and Coaltown. Iron Leige (Derby winner in one of the most controversial Derbies ever), Hill Gail (Derby winner), Next Move (champion 3yo filly and older mare), and Real Delight accentuate the list. Plum Cake, Real Delight’s daughter, is in turn the dam of Sweet Tooth, who is 3x3 to Bull Lea through Bull Lea's daughter Two Lea. Sweet Tooth was then the 1977 broodmare of the year and dam of Alydar, Our Mims, and Sugar And Spice. Alydar, in turn is the sire of Althea (a stellar race mare), Alysheba (Derby/BC Classic winner), Cadillacing, Criminal Type, Dare And Go, and Endear (dam of 2x BC Mile winner Lure, in turn sire of Orphen). Additionally, Strike The Gold (Derby winner), Turkoman (broodmare sire of Point Given), Train Robbery (dam of Cat Thief, who is by Storm Cat, brining all of this together), Winglet (dam of Ajina), Twenty Eight Carat and finally Easy Goer all trace to Bull Lea. Easy Goer is the sire of Furlough, Will's Way, and My Flag (dam of Storm Flag Flying). Sugar And Spice was one of the best racemares of the early 80's, and Our Mims was a champion 3yo filly who has a touching story attached to her. Alydar, a son of Raise A Native, has another cross to Teddy thorough Raise A Native's dam Raise You, who's tail-male line traces to Teddy.

So, believe it or not, I've only touched the tip of the iceberg. What that represents is nearly 100 years of breeding by the Hancock family, Claiborne Farms, and the Phipps family. The development of THAT line, with the simultaneous development of stamina lines such as Buckpasser (who ironically STILL traces to Bull Dog, through his sire's female family and again to Teddy through his tail female line, his 3rd dam being La Troienne, by Teddy), Damascus (direct tail-male from Teddy, going Sun Teddy, Sun Again, Sunglow, Sword Dancer, Damascus), and the European product Ribot, who shares a nearly identical tail-male line with Northern Dancer (from Pharos on up), all came together, and in retrospect, it is absloutely no suprise that Storm Cat is the dominant world force he is, or that Kentucky is the breeding capital of the modern world, given that it was largely the Hancocks (Claiborne) and Calumet Farms that were responsible for all of this. Throw in the Phipps, with their fixation on classic breeding, and you have the driving force behind nearly all American bloodstock.

I'm certain similar developments MUST have occured in England and the rest of Europe from somewhere around 1830-1930, which laid the groundwork behind the American boom traceable almost entirely to Teddy and Polymelus, or possibly Polymelus' sire, Cyllene, who was sold to Argentina early in the 1900's and I'd bet is probably in the pedigree of 98% of horses bred in South America.

So, what's the pattern? There's an established venue of racing. There's a new or growing venue. The bloodstock must be slowly transferred, and then you must have a concerted development of the line. Japanese racing took their most major step with the purchase of Sunday Silence (tail male to Polymelus and Cyllene, with a Teddy few crosses from Sir Gallahad (2) and another through Sun Again, yet another through Bull Dog, a few more crosses to Polymelus if you keep going back). Australia is getting there with the shuttle stallions. But realize what new industries are competing with: hundreds of years worth of improvement to the breed stemming from Europe, at least 100 from America. To expect it to be equal is ludicrous, to CLAIM it is equal is simply ignorant, having examined above just ONE line in any sort of depth. Dozens more European and American lines exist which are unquestionably superior to Australian, South American, or Japanese lines before the blending of these classic lines with them.

So, I'm done now, cause I got sick of doing research after doing the 3 hours or so required for that post. You're all free to pounce on me now and find my mistakes, cause there are bound to be a few technicalities that I missed or big things that I overlooked, but I'd be skeptical if there was something too major that I missed."

[Ara Davies]

Didn't I get you (ed: Emily) a whole book on the origins of the Thoroughbred? I think it's fascinating. I could spend hours reading about the Royal Mares and stuff like that.

[Ara Davies]

Oh, I remember that thread. Somebody was saying how horses like Sadler's Wells and Danehill are great examples of how wonderful and how much better the European/Australian breeding programs were than the North American ones and I got mad and pointed out that both of those stallions were US bred. And then people came up with more examples and they were mostly US (or Canadian) bred too.

I mean honestly.

[Lisa Lange]

Eric, where did you find your post?? or do you have saved on your computer so you don't have to retrace the steps should you need to again??? just wondering