Melbourne Spring Carnival Thread

[John Nicholson]

red cadeaux had a racecourse gallop last week and everything went ok he seems fresh and well so everyones happy with him

[Peter Gleason]

Didn't see that one coming!

[Laura Cameron]

Haven't actually seen the races yet as I wasn't home to watch on TV and Bigpond video isn't working for me, but it seems like the Cox Plate is all Ocean Park's to lose now. Definitely did not expect All Too Hard to be able to beat Pierro at 1600m.

ETA: just managed to see the 2000m race (lost track of what it's called nowadays). Although Alcopop is getting on in years, I thought his was a big run from a Cups perspective.

[Peter Gleason]

Wasn't a huge fan of OP's run really. Beating Alcopop and Sincero by half a length doesn't give me a lot of confidence to be honest.

Still think Pierro is the one in that race given the weight pull and the fact that I see the Waterhouse runners getting a bit of an easy lead up front.

[Cleo Patra]

I had a feeling Pierro wasn't going to win. He looked off in the pre-parade, like he'd had one race too many. He seemed to lack his usual bulk. I didn't know All Too Hard would win though. I got distracted thinking that fancy chestnut horse would make an awesome show horse haha.

That French horse that won the Cup prep race is one heck of a horse. He had a terrible ride and still had the class to win. I'm not sure of his chances in the big race though. He'll be tired after that run today.

[Peter Gleason]

I'm still not giving up on More Joyous in the Cox as well. She had an awful time of things yesterday and was entitled to finish off how she did

Possible Cox Plate Field?

The main chances:
Pierro
Ocean Park
Green Moon
All Too Hard
More Joyous
Proisir

And I'm sure the likes of Ethiopia, Rekindled Interest, Sincero, Happy Trails, Shoot Out, Southern Speed will round out the field.

Not the race it could have been if we had the likes of Atlantic Jewel, Lucas Cranach, Manighar and Mosheen running but I think it's a decent Cox Plate.

Does anyone know if Ethiopia is heading towards the Melbourne Cup? Him, Maluckyday, Lights of Heaven, Niwot and Exceptionally are the only Aus-bred horses that come to mind for the race

[Peter Gleason]

Dunaden or Americain to win the cup? I don't see anyone else winning the thing

[Peter Gleason]

Wasn't a huge fan of OP's run really. Beating Alcopop and Sincero by half a length doesn't give me a lot of confidence to be honest.

Still think Pierro is the one in that race given the weight pull and the fact that I see the Waterhouse runners getting a bit of an easy lead up front.

Bad call...although I was all over Ocean Park by the time the race came especially since the form was franked somewhat by Alcopop.

All too Hard is probably a bit underrated and may actually be better than Pierro after all....hopefully we'll see a couple more clashes between these two over the next half year.

Why they didn't end up setting Silent Achiever for the Cox Plate is beyond me. She was considered better than Ocean Park in their 3yo days.

Really hope they send Ethiopia to the cup. Very nice run.

[Laura Cameron]

Does anyone know anything about Breakfast with the Stars at Flemington? I was thinking of going this year but I can't find any info online.

I think Ethiopia is my new favourite for the Cup, assuming he runs. He's on the rise, shouldn't have any troubles with the distance and gets in fairly light compared to the top two (did Dunaden get a penalty for the CC?).

[Peter Gleason]

I think Dunaden got 1kg so he's on 59 now. The weight seems very steep going on past experience, but he's demonstrated many times that he's just better than our horses so I dunno...

Some of the locals I'm actually quite keen on...Ethiopia, Lights of Heaven, Maluckyday

I'm not sure if they have an official breakfast with the starts thing at Flemington. I know they have a Mooney Valley one.

[Laura Cameron]

I'm not sure if they have an official breakfast with the starts thing at Flemington. I know they have a Mooney Valley one.

They've definitely had one in the past - friends of mine went either 2 or 3 years ago. There was nothing out of the ordinary when I went past Flemington at sevenish this morning so I guess it wasn't on this year.

I do agree that Dunaden is just flat out better than anything else right now, based on what we've seen to date, but given the difficulty and rarity of winning multiple Cups, the statistician in me wants to push him aside. 59kg is a lot to carry, too. I think the highest weighted winner since weights went metric was Makybe Diva with 58kg.

[Peter Gleason]

What are horses like Precedence, Unusual Suspect, Voila Ici and Glencadam Gold doing in the Melbourne Cup field? Poor effort by these trainers to persevere with obviously out of form horses and keeping horses like Gatewood, Brigantin, Shahwahdi out of the race.

Dunaden
Americain
Lights of Heaven
Maluckyday
Ethiopia
Red Cadeaux

are the horses I'm keen on.

[Danny Warren]

Guessing not many saw that coming given what the first 4 paid !!

Green Moon, atrocious in the Cox Plate, wins the Cup............massive turnaround !!

[Cleo Patra]

Usually I'll at least give the winner a nod in the pre-parade, but I didn't even clock onto Green Moon at all. Blimey he was dominant though, and the 2nd and 3rd runs were very decent too. Gai Waterhouse will be pleased Fiorente.

Americain might have won if his jockey went FORWARD instead of sideways across the track 3 times. The horse put himself in the right spot and tried to power forward, only to get dragged off back toward the rail. I missed most of Green Moon and Jakkalberry's runs cause I was too busy screeching at Americain haha.

[Laura Cameron]

With the benefit of hindsight, I didn't think Green Moon's run was all that surprising. Just wish I'd realised that some time before 3:05pm, haha.

Working on Cup day sucks. We couldn't get a clear picture on any TV in the department, so everyone squished into the tea room and watched on someone's laptop. Although it certainly beat listening to Makybe Diva's third Cup on a hand-held radio from the top of a mountain in the Grampians.

I hope Ethiopia is okay - he was pulled up a long way from home.