Melbourne Spring Carnival Thread

[Michael Edwards]

Weekend Hussler won the Underwood stakes 1800m (9 furlongs) this preperation, the cox plate is only 2040m (i think) and being a 4 year old gelding he would have 57.5 kg. He was in the Caulfield cup 2400m (12 furlongs/ 1 1/2 miles) until the last 400m so i guess he would just handle the distance in the cox plate, but i think he has proven himself to be a sprinter not a stayer.

i did notice he now has a stewards embargo 'not to race - vet vertificate' as of 18/10/08, so i don't think there is any chance of him running in the Cox Plate.

[Alex Puderbaugh]

Ahh, okay. I forgot about the 9 furlong race. I wonder why he has that embargo though.

[Peter Gleason]

Maldivian and Gallant Tess are running. Although Maldivian is going horribly this year I can see him winning the thing. If he gets the lead and dictates he could win seeing as PC, SM and Zipping all come from the back of the field

I want to watch these old Cox Plates later today so I'm going to put them here for future reference:

<a href='http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=gFj0za62bos' target='_blank'>http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=gFj0za62bos</a>

<a href='http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=MxHoAzNMarI' target='_blank'>http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=MxHoAzNMarI</a>

<a href='http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=eQOq5Q_ofy8' target='_blank'>http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=eQOq5Q_ofy8</a>

<a href='http://www.mvrc.net.au/cms/index.php?op ... &Itemid=76' target='_blank'>http://www.mvrc.net.au/cms/index.php?op ... emid=76</a>

[Rachel Sadler]

I wonder why he has that embargo though.

A veterinary examination of Weekend Hussler revealed the gelding to be suffering from a mild case of the thumps and to be slightly lame in the off foreleg. It was also reported that Weekend Hussler was showing signs of an allergic reaction in the skin. Trainer Mr R McDonald will be advised that a veterinary certificate will be required before Weekend Hussler is permitted to race again

Alex that was taken from the stewerds report.

On the other hand the trainer has this to say about the horse.

<a href='http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/ ... 88,00.html' target='_blank'>Weekend Hussler Not Lame...</a>

[Peter Gleason]

Cox Plate Field:

Sirmione 8
Maldivian 6
Zipping 5
Theseo 12
Master O'Reilly 11
Raheeb 10
Alamosa 7
C'Est La Guerre 3
Princess Coup 9
Gallant Tess 4
Zarita 1
Samantha Miss 2

It's a terrible field for a Cox Plate but kind of intriguing at the same time that there's not the standout that most years have. Where's the speed going to come from? Sirmione, Zipping, MasterO, PC, Samantha M all like coming from the back. I can really see Maldivian getting it easy in front and winning. Raheeb's a good outsider as well

[Peter Gleason]

Cox Plate bets:

Lucky Secret win
Whobegotyou- Sousa quinella
Cefalu place
Rockwood win

Princess Coup should win the Cox but I wouldn't bet on her

[Michael Edwards]

Not betting on the cox, but i would bet on samantha miss (because she is so light!)and zipping because he is so good)if i had millions to waste. Not sure about the other races yet, still looking...........

[Peter Gleason]

Zipping will run on like every other group 1 race he has been it. I don't think he's even won a group 1

1- Princess Coup
2- Samantha Miss
3- Maldivian
4- Zipping

[Peter Gleason]

I didn't want to be right when I said that Maldivian would dictate the pace and win. Surely the Hussler with his usual on-the-pace position in running would have won. The boys on the coverage kept on going on about Princess Coup's ride but when you beat like 3 horses home you have to assume the horse wasn't good enough. Despite going for Princess Coup, I managed to pick the trifecta in my top four picks which was a good effort I thought.

Overall an ok day punting. Lucky Secret won at 4.10 while the other 2 didn't come off

[Alex Puderbaugh]

Thanks for the information Rachel. I'll check out the article in the morning as it's past bedtime.

Peter or Michael, let me know how Northern Meteor does on Saturday! I was reading another article (I found it because it was linked somewhere) and so was on the Sydney Morning Herald's website and see he was entered. He seems like he could be something special.

[Peter Gleason]

Ah Northern Meteor- I had my eye on this horse before he even started. He was entered in the Cox Plate as an unraced horse, a clear indication he had ability. He had two dud runs under John Hawkes before exploding under Gai Waterhouse (probably enjoys running on the pace rather than Hawkes' come from behind training style).

Derby Day tomorrow- was going to go but then I remembered that I hate the idea of going to a raceday with around 110,000 drunks. Huge Card with Whobegotyou seemingly over the line in the derby. Princess Coup/Littorio should fight out the MacKinnon and I'll be cheering hard for Northern Meteor in the Ascot Vale. I like Absolut Glam in the mares race and Aichi in a surprisingly strong Salinger (although I love the story of Nuclear Medicine). Caymans and El Cambio look good for Darley in thier races while the Saab and the Wakeful are too bad for words but I'll go Arms Wide Open for a place in the wakeful and possibly Moatize in the Saab (I was considering Largo Lad that's how bad the race was)

As for the Melbourne Cup, last years winner Efficient and Caulfield Cup winner All the Good are both scratchings from the big race

[Michael Edwards]

I can't believe Littorio is running in the mackinnon 4 days before the melbourne cup! It's not like he needs to win it to qualify. Has Blackiston gone nuts. I have no doubt he can win this race but it will make it hard (not impossible) to back up on tuesday for the cup.

Littorio in the Mackinnon, it's flemington, it's long, i'm sticking with him.

Light Vision in the Saab Quality

I think Wilander can upset northern meteor in the Coolmore Stud Stakes but there is no way i'll bet on it! Both had great runs last start, NM likes to lead, Wilander likes to follow, should be a great race.

Whobegotyou is a shoe in, i'll have Larry's never late in a quinella in the Derby,

Mimi Lebrock is so hit and miss but with the form jockey of the spring carnival hopefuly she have a hit in the Myer Classic. Serious Speed is a great chance at $11 against other fillies.

3 yo Sunburnt Land is great value at $3.80 in the Seppelt Salinger Stakes against some good but not great older horses.

If i dont do any good on saturday i think i'll leave tuesday alone!

[Michael Edwards]

i just noticed Elizabethan is running at mooney valley in 30 mins time tonight, Excellent value at $17! Going to have an each way bet on the Local horse, trainer and jockey combo.

[Michael Edwards]

4th in a photo, not the start to the weekend i was looking for!

[Peter Gleason]

Northern Meteor won his race by about a length! I feel proud as I have followed him his whole career. Also look through this thread and I think I called Rocha 'an oaks filly if I ever saw one' like a month ago. Wins the wakeful at 60-1! I had no money on her so I'm shattered.