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Stallion Season
Original article written by John Smith posted 5 months 2 weeks agoStallion Season
As the racing season winds down, continuing the stallion selection search has probably morphed if you have been breeding all year long. For those that wait, well that may carry the same successful or unsuccessful strategy through to next season’s foals. Evaluating stallions varies of course, mainly because of the inequities that about. I suppose we can label these variables as well, but like with running talent, there are just some stallions, throwing better than others.
The saying is there are lies, damn lies and then statistics, well the stud book if full of these “statistics,” for one’s use. Either to the glory land or into the grave yard, making sense of these numbers combined with talent and pedigree lines, a mare can be a fruitful producer or just another sad love song.
The focus of this article will be on the statistics rather than pedigree, hypos or track talent. To try and paint a fuller picture of one’s choices in stallions there are differing attributes on display. For the numbers at least, some like the gallop percents. Mostly, I think people weight stakes and freak gallopers probably more than any other, for obvious reasons of course, while others may focus on other attributes. The problem with percent gallops is it neglects to shed any light on mare quality any respective stallion may be receiving. The only information we may glean from that is possibly by number of stakes producers covered. Again used in conjunction with total foals, at least one can compare specific stallions in an attempt to decide who is getting theoretically better mares. A lot like Papa John’s pizza – better mares better pizza!
While percents are standard transformations of data along with averages and the like, median earnings is another interesting stat that mitigates super freak earners skewing averages. The problem with percents, at times, is neglects the “math,” of bigger numbers or possibly smaller ones. Percents, of course, are used to compare what any given subject/variable – in this case stallion – would theoretically do with the same number of attempts. In short, it assumes a lot. Like in the above mentioned mare quality, getting another 50 mares isn’t always equal to getting another 50 mares, it also gets lost in higher use stallions as it is assuming higher use stallions must be getting higher end mares, especially if that stud fee is beyond what an average horse may earn. What’s more ridiculous is that stat mentioned above is given yet people often pay multiples of this median and average earnings number in hopes of the dream of the next big thing. I am overly guilty of this, especially early in my career, sending all my unpreds/formids and poor running mare to top stallions and at times getting the big gallop comments, well, not born freak, but stakes late/progs, then watching them muddle in the mire rarely getting past minor stakes thus far and losing their minds apparently at 3 years old and forgetting they are race horses.
So much like a previous article, patience on that mare has been difficult, but maybe I spot one or two on the horizon and hopefully the gallops come through and they actually run like it!
All the Best,
John