Thoroughbred Broodmare Sires Study—4-7yo All Weather Sprinte

Original article written by Scott Zeigler posted 7 weeks 3 days ago

This is the penultimate article on sprinters in this ongoing study of thoroughbred broodmare sires. I had intended to combine the three-year-olds in this article, because I've found that I'm interested in the movement from those older runners toward more current horses. While I think that's a better way to look at the broodmare sires overall, this article was getting rather long, so I split them up. Still, I'll post this first then follow up with three-year-olds.

I've tweaked my methodology slightly since I covered the two-year-old class of all weather sprinters, but it remains essentially the same. I rank each of the stakes-winning progeny at the top of the class in four metrics: earnings, points, Best Speed Figure (BSF), and stakes wins. I use the individual runners' collective scores in those categories to determine which broodmare sire had the greatest impact on the class. There are, of course, limitations to this method, but I think it still effectively gives a strong idea of which are the top broodmare sires. The biggest problem, particularly as the progeny ages, is that there is such a difference in which horses continue to earn through racing and those that have moved on to retirement and breeding of their own. My rankings do not account for an owner's decision to move out of racing and potentially stunting earnings. It also requires making the assumption that all owners treat their horses the same for training and racing, and this is patently not true.

A quick review of the two-year-old class. The three highest-impact broodmare sires were Maclean's Music, Ghostly Forensics, and Stab Thru the Hart. Maclean's Music had the most progeny on the twenty-five horse list along with the top horse, Marabou, who slid from the top of the class after a loss to Aspire to Glory in the "Castle Stakes." The new leader of the class is Manintheshadows, who won the Grade 2 "Lodge Stakes." The son of the Ghostly Forensics mare, Spiritually Destined, is now the leader of two-year-old all weather sprinters in all four metrics (134 points, $220,500 earnings, 94 BSF, 4 stakes wins). Maclean's Music remains at the top for that class, but Ghostly Forensics is closing the gap.

This analysis starts at the tail end of this study, with progeny aged four through seven-years-old. I settled on a list of 52 progeny from mares of 21 broodmare sires. One challenge of all weather rankings is that it's more common for these runners to race on multiple surfaces. It was very difficult to account for this versatility. In order to make the list, the runner had to have made a significant impact on the all weather surface. And the qualifiers had to be near the top of their age for any of the four metrics and had to have won at least one stakes race. There are four broodmare sires who stand out: Stab Thru the Hart, Red Falx, At the Gallows End, and Ghostly Forensics.

Stab Thru the Hart had 12 of the runners on the list with his top horse the seven-year-old Tunnel of No Light ($1,729,000, 93 BSF, 8 stakes wins). He had two other million-dollar winning male horses, six-year-old A Cat Called Lloyd ($1,857, 96, 9) and four-year-old Princely Appearance ($1,808,750, 97, 7). You'll notice that A Cat Called Lloyd earned more, had a higher BSF, and one more stakes win than Tunnel of No Light. What's going on here? Both won ten races, though Tunnel ran six more times. The difference is in quality of wins, and thus in points. Tunnel had 513 points and won two Grade 1 races, the "Artificial Sprint" and "Pegasus Summit." Cat had 405 points with four Grade 1 wins, the "Pegasus Summit," the "Synthetic Sprint Derby," the "Steward's Cup Synthetic Dash," and the "Wild Horse Stakes." That doesn't make things clearer, does it? Tunnel had a Grade 2 and Grade 3 win and was runner up in seven graded stakes. Cat had no other graded stakes wins and only one Grade 2 runner up finish. This is one reason I like to use points as a factor, because it gives a sense of overall quality of starts. Is it perfect? By no means, but short of a judging panel or broad voting, it's the best I can come up with from my desk. Stab Thru the Hart had one other major runner among his top horses, Our Hearts Aligned ($639,000, 94 , 7). He had a total of 479 runners from this group with 336 earners, an incredible 70%.

Determining the second ranked broodmare sire for four to seven-year-olds came down to deciding between three horses: At the Gallows End, Ghostly Forensics, and Red Falx. At the Gallows End had a smaller, stronger set of horses on the list, while both Ghostly Forensics and Red Falx had deeper sets that included significantly weaker runners beneath their top producers.

In the end, I settled on Red Falx, who had eight progeny on the list, led a horse, Sir Bumpsalot ($1,137,000, 93, 11), and two mares, Keyleigh ($765,250, 93, 5) and Sweeping in Pink ($702,500, 96, 5). It was the strength of those three that overpowered At the Gallows End, whose top two horses were stronger than Sir Bumpsalot and Keyleigh, but who didn't have a third horse to match Sweeping Pink. Red Falx had combined progeny of 350 foals with 228 earners (65%).

At the Gallows End, whose filly, St Tropaz Mirage ($1,416,000, 96, 9), was the top five-year-old in this grouping, came in a close third on this list. St Tropaz Mirage and the six-year-old mare, Flashy in Pink ($709,500, 94, 8), were strong enough to make up for the relatively weaker Genuine Trust ($347,300, 92) and Shanghai Angel ($286,250, 91, 2). The higher speed figures and combined stakes wins from the top two horses nearly pushed At the Gallows End into the second spot. He had 403 four through seven-year-old progeny with 262 earners (65%).

Next up was Ghostly Forensics, who landed six runners on the list, led by three fairly equal four-year-old colts: Keep Ghosting Me ($374,750, 96, 7), Foggernaut ($683,750, 93, 3), and Lloyd's Got It ($400,500, 95, 5). His five-year-old mare, Lakes ($404,000, 92, 5), accumulated her impressive record in three years before retiring and producing a foal last year. Ghostly Forensics had 135 earners from a class of 192, another stunning 70%. He's one of the younger broodmare sires on the list with his mares producing 159 yearlings from last years class and 40 foals so far this year. He has 436 living, unpensioned female progeny between ages 1 and 10, and 40 of them are currently for sale. Make that 39!

Four broodmare sires landed a pair of progeny on the list. Namura Shingun had two million-dollar winners on the list, including the top runner, Carrot Stealer ($1,726,500, 94, 13), and Eloquent Sound ($1,021,100, 93 , 7). Red Running Hood had the impressive runner up, Dancing Silently ($1,273,500, 98, 14), along with Hapag Wolf ($411,390, 93, 3), who retired to stud after two strong seasons. Both Air Bourne and Stride Through Air, sons of Air Spinel, had two of the weaker runners on the list of top producing four through seven-year-olds.

The remaining broodmare sires on the list were: All Too Real, Bowies Hero, Calgary Cat, Deep Sky Day, Ghost in the Radio, Hooray, Imperial Hint, P.T. Barnum, Private Zone, Shancelot, Shutupndancewithme, The Crowd Cheers, and Undrafted.

As I move toward the three-year-old class, it's clear that both Ghostly Forensics and Stab Thru the Hart have strength that will likely show up. That will be the first class of progeny from Maclean's Music's mares, and I'm wondering if he shows up with that first class.

Thank you for reading. I've enjoyed these looks at the different broodmare sires and their strengths. My next article will finish the series on sprinters, and I'll move on to milers.

The data:

Name Type Earnings Dam Sire Pts BSF Stakes
Carrot Stealer b.h.7 $1,726,500 Namura Shingun 625 94 13
Dancing Silently gr.h.6 $1,273,500 Red Running Hood 593 98 14
St Tropaz Mirage dkb.m.5 $1,416,000 At the Gallows End 625 96 9
Drowned Souls bl.m.6 $1,632,250 Imperial Hint 535 96 8
Tunnel of No Light gr.h.7 $1,729,000 Stab Thru the Hart 513 93 8
Sir Bumpsalot dkb.h.5 $1,137,000 Red Falx 535 93 11
Halley dkb.m.6 $1,320,500 P.T. Barnum 509 97 10
A Cat Called Lloyd ch.h.6 $1,857,750 Stab Thru the Hart 405 96 9
Mattawan b.h.7 $1,564,500 Deep Sky Day 495 96 7
Princely Appearance ch.c.4 $1,808,750 Stab Thru the Hart 409 97 7
Prison Stay b.g.6 $853,500 Undrafted 446 92 8
Eloquent Sound b.m.6 $1,021,100 Namura Shingun 331 93 7
Flashy in Pink gr.m.6 $709,500 At the Gallows End 329 94 8
Our Hearts Aligned ch.h.5 $639,000 Stab Thru the Hart 341 94 7
Keyleigh gr.m.7 $765,250 Red Falx 283 93 5
Forensics Lab ch.m.7 $399,000 Stab Thru the Hart 292 93 7
Sweeping in Pink ch.m.6 $702,500 Red Falx 207 96 5
Keep Ghosting Me ch.c.4 $374,750 Ghostly Forensics 225 96 7
Bowieinthesorrow ch.h.5 $308,650 Bowies Hero 254 92 6
Mythical Keepsake bl.f.4 $530,050 Stab Thru the Hart 214 95 5
Foggernaut ch.c.4 $683,750 Ghostly Forensics 221 93 3
Lloyd's Got It bl.c.4 $400,500 Ghostly Forensics 214 95 5
Lakes bl.m.5 $404,000 Ghostly Forensics 192 92 5
Hip Hop Hooves bl.c.4 $294,250 Shutupndancewithme 202 95 5
Red Phive gr.m.6 $317,000 Air Bourne 198 94 5
Ewephoric dkb.f.4 $276,500 Stride Through Air 217 94 4
Hapag Wolf b.c.4 $411,390 Red Running Hood 199 93 3
Beautyinthemagic bl.h.5 $381,500 Stab Thru the Hart 200 93 3
Genuine Trust w.g.5 $347,300 At the Gallows End 246 92 1
Let's Play Bridge ch.c.4 $269,000 Ghostly Forensics 210 95 3
Freddie Mercury bl.c.4 $349,000 Stab Thru the Hart 202 90 3
Majestic Sky ch.f.4 $214,750 Red Falx 179 92 5
Ghostly Gang ch.m.5 $251,500 Red Falx 210 91 3
Chostly ch.m.5 $299,750 The Crowd Cheers 160 90 5
Slipper gr.f.4 $268,750 Hooray 169 93 4
Mr. Zero gr.h.5 $403,500 Ghost in the Radio 172 88 3
Farruko ch.c.4 $241,750 Private Zone 191 93 3
Fates Destiny b.m.5 $246,750 Stride Through Air 175 91 3
Slow Flow ch.c.4 $245,000 Stab Thru the Hart 148 92 4
Filosofo gr.g.4 $307,550 Calgary Cat 174 91 2
Un Le Tout ch.h.6 218,790 All Too Real 159 92 3
Kyrgios ch.h.5 $272,750 Stab Thru the Hart 151 90 3
Sir Al Dog dkb.g.5 $277,920 Red Falx 147 89 3
Shanghai Angel bl.m.5 $286,250 At the Gallows End 160 91 2
Newhart Z b.h.7 219,940 Shancelot 186 92 1
Swingalong ch.g.5 $240,170 Ghostly Forensics 147 90 2
My Heart Goes b.m.5 $253,000 Stab Thru the Hart 135 92 2
Beauty of Llyod gr.h.6 $312,050 Air Bourne 113 89 1
Battle Trumpet bl.f.4 $304,370 Red Falx 88 91 1
Hail gr.h.5 $289,100 Stab Thru the Hart 90 90 1
Ancient Lloyd ch.f.4 $224,500 Red Falx 85 91 1

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