Thoroughbred Broodmare Sires Study—4-7yo Dirt Milers

Original article written by Scott Zeigler posted 6 weeks 2 days ago

With two full weeks of racing to go in Year-66, I've reached my analysis of thoroughbred dirt mile broodmare sires. This is the tightest division so far with a nearly indiscernible collection of ages four through seven stakes winners and two clear leaders among the broodmare sires.

Please refer to any of my older division sprinters for information about my methodology, which generally consists of collecting data for all runners and evaluating the effectiveness of broodmare sires based on four metrics: earnings, points, best speed figures, and stakes wins. All runners here had to win at least a stakes race during their career. Likewise, I've already discussed limitations of this study, including the discrepancy among the racers' career lengths. On the whole, I think this study achieves its goal of illuminating which sires have produced the strongest classes from their mares.

One major complication I haven't wholly addressed is versatility. In working through this study, I found that one of the horses, Prize, who came up in my search of dirt milers, has never run a dirt mile. Because his dam, Adelie, ran three times at a mile, and she's a daughter of Marvel, who did most of his damage at a mile but also ran a handful of longer races, he captures it in his running style. Could he excel at a mile? Probably, but it seems disingenuous to this study to include him as a runner. So, it's likely that I've missed others, since I don't have an encyclopedic knowledge of runners and styles. Then I found Warder and others, and my analysis was utterly compromised. Unfortunately, I only caught this when I was over half done with my article! What comes next is a significantly revised analysis.

For this study I settled on a collection of 82 runners from 48 unique broodmare sires. Once again, it is a very strong, fairly evenly divided class. The top 15 progeny all won more than a million dollars, and most had more than 10 stakes wins and high 90s BSFs. Settling on the very top runners wasn't easy, since each was strong in a different metric. Nevertheless, two broodmare sires distinguished themselves based on a combination of breadth and total strength of their runners: Dubai Touchdown and Marvel.

Dubai Touchdown landed the top spot with six runners in the class, powered by a single horse, Alpelti ($3,017,500, 95, 15), who was the top ranked horse overall and is set to run Week-16 in the $50,000 "Turkey Mile Stakes." Alpelti also leads the class in points and stakes wins. Dubai Touchdown has three other runners that fell just short of a million in earnings: The Devil's Road ($866,000, 95, 10), Massive Gains ($973,000, 96, 8), and Atlantic Z ($843,750, 92, 4). With his youngest mares turning 8 next season, Dubai Touchdown is nearing the end of his productivity, but his mares produced a whopping 593 foals for this class with 321 earners (54%)

Without including Prize, Marvel slid to the second position with six total runners led by Morning Rain ($1,580,500, 96, 8), Kelpie Wonder ($794,500, 93, 10), a four-year-old filly who has had a spectacular year with four graded stakes wins, and Arizona Canyon ($1,007,500, 94, 6). Marvel has (including versatile runners who might work at more than a mile) 333 four to seven-year-old progeny and 176 of them earned purse money (52%). He had only six runners from his first class, now eight-year-olds, so this is the front edge of his work as a broodmare sire. His mares produced 186 yearlings preparing to race next season and they've thrown 63 foals so far this year.

Things were tight among the next seven broodmare sires who had multiple progeny on the list, with the head bob going to Dragon and Pegasus who has four progeny on the list. His seven-year-old mare, Eh What's Up Doc ($1,409,500, 95, 12), came in at 11 overall. He also landed a couple of males on the list, including Chato ($557,750, 92, 8) and Big Storms ($577,000, 95, 6), who could make a major move up the list with a win in this year's Steward's Cup Dirt Mile. Dragon and Pegasus's class was 388 deep with 190 earners (49%).

Cairo Prince came in next with his five-year-old Sukiyaki ($3,323,500, 97, 11), who is ranked sixth on the list. He has other relatively weaker progeny in the four-year-old Tamagoyaki ($675,300, 98, 3), who is entered in the Steward's Cup Dirt Mile, and Toesweeper ($322,000, 95, 7). Cairo Prince's mares consistently produced about 50 foals for each year of this study for a total class of 205. Of those, 106 cashed a check (52%).

The next two broodmare sires on the ranking with three progeny, Kentucky Wildcat and Doctor Who, each have a top five ranked horse that carried their weaker siblings to land at fifth and sixth on the rankings, respectively. Kentucky Wildcat has fourth ranked Rallick Nom ($4,012,500, 97, 10), another Steward's Cup Dirt Mile entrant, and Doctor Who has third ranked Flight Academy ($3,037,000, 100, 13), who has foals by Flightline and Cody's Wish over the last two years. Her 100 BSF is tied for tops in the class with Gladiator's Ima Dance On Bars ($561,500, 100, 3).

All of Time has four relatively weak progeny on the list to place him in seventh, followed by four horses who had three progeny each, none of whose progeny were in the top ten: Bernardini, Fightflamewithfire, Spectrum, Light of the Moon.

The remainder of the top ten dirt milers from this study are split among six different broodmare sires, with only Scanlon landing two runners, led by Chrome Calling ($1,368,250, 95, 13) at nine. King of Kindness has the number two horse, My Son ($4,046,000, 97, 11), followed at five, seven, eight, and ten by Just An Act's Troika ($2,854,500, 98, 13), Warpath's Swordsman ($3,082,000, 98, 9), Harkness's Concealed Carrie ($1,807,000, 96, 12), and Why I Am's Gleam ($2,134,500, 95, 10).

Majingilane and Queen's Plate each had a pair of runners in the study. Finally, Allonsy, American Valor, Cyberman, Selati, and Spatula all landed million dollar winners on the list.

That brings an end to what was the most challenging study so far. From selecting the right runners to deciding among the many qualified candidates, I'm certain that the three-year-old class is likely to be wide open.
Data Table:

Rank Name Type Dam Sire Earnings Points BSF Stakes
1 Alpelti dkb.h.6 Dubai Touchdown $3,017,500 817 95 15
2 My Son b.h.7 King of Kindness $4,046,000 746 97 11
3 Flight Academy bl.m.5 Doctor Who $3,037,000 655 100 13
4 Rallick Nom bl.h.6 Kentucky Wildcat $4,012,500 705 97 10
5 Troika ch.h.7 Just An Act $2,854,500 647 98 13
6 Sukiyaki bl.h.5 Cairo Prince $3,323,500 656 97 11
7 Swordsman dkb.h.7 Warpath $3,082,000 599 98 9
8 Concealed Carrie ch.m.6 Harkness $1,807,000 615 96 12
9 Chrome Calling b.m.7 Scanlon $1,368,250 651 95 13
10 Gleam ch.m.7 Why I Am $2,134,500 659 95 10
11 Eh What's Up Doc b.m.7 Dragon and Pegasus $1,409,500 627 95 12
12 Sage of Monticello w.m.5 Tigerscomeatnight $2,180,000 573 96 10
13 A Life Well Lived dkb.m.6 Fightflamewithfire $1,380,500 533 94 11
14 Corbyn bl.h.7 Majingilane $1,001,500 541 95 11
15 Morning Rain ch.m.5 Marvel $1,580,500 485 96 8
16 Bear Bryant bl.h.7 Touchdown Raiders $730,500 488 94 11
17 The Devil's Road bl.m.6 Dubai Touchdown $866,000 484 95 10
18 Quinny bl.h.6 Allonsy $2,033,000 443 97 6
19 Tower of Joy ch.h.7 Colby $650,250 479 93 11
20 Monsoon dkb.h.7 American Valor $1,824,750 458 92 7
21 Mysterious Wildcat ch.m.5 Man of Mystery $748,000 481 93 10
22 Massive Gains gr.m.6 Dubai Touchdown $973,000 494 96 8
23 Kelpie Wonder w.f.4 Marvel $794,500 425 93 10
24 Calling Chrome b.m.6 Scanlon $773,750 477 94 8
25 Little Black Ops bl.f.4 Jubilation $837,300 398 95 9
26 Indy Skies bl.g.6 Bernardini $724,250 443 92 9
27 Freeze This Moment b.m.7 The People's Horse $674,000 381 96 9
28 The Pantheon bl.m.6 Cyberman $1,306,750 404 94 6
29 Suriqui gr.m.5 All of Time $611,250 409 92 9
30 Mulholland Road b.h.5 Bernardini $927,000 399 94 7
31 Bittersweet Memories gr.m.7 California Chrome $549,500 367 96 9
32 Burnin N Lootin bl.m.6 Spendthrift $634,250 413 94 8
33 Mandarb bl.c.4 Selati $1,163,750 357 93 7
34 Chato bl.h.6 Dragon and Pegasus $557,750 388 92 8
35 Arizona Canyon dkb.h.6 Marvel $1,007,500 320 94 6
36 Forrest Gump bl.c.4 Spatula $1,100,000 352 94 5
37 Ganoes Paran bl.h.6 Achievement $700,000 372 93 6
38 Mistletoe 'n Holly ch.m.7 Dream in Shades $571,500 283 94 7
39 Big Storms b.c.4 Dragon and Pegasus $577,000 311 95 6
40 Van Basten b.h.5 All of Time $499,150 297 92 7
41 Serengeti Dawn b.m.7 Spread Like Fire $498,500 365 92 5
42 Lunar Train b.m.5 Spectrum $380,750 257 92 7
43 Holland Hollows ch.f.4 Bolt d'Oro $369,250 258 91 7
44 Toesweeper b.m.5 Cairo Prince $322,000 232 95 7
45 Kentucky Bisou ch.m.5 Midnight Lute $416,000 304 92 5
46 Touche Turtle b.h.6 Light of the Moon $455,250 290 91 5
47 Atlantic Z gr.h.6 Dubai Touchdown $843,750 243 92 4
48 Tamagoyaki dkb.c.4 Cairo Prince $675,300 276 98 3
49 Anouk ro.m.5 Chart the Map $421,000 245 94 5
50 Shorter Marvel gr.g.6 Queen's Plate $317,700 270 94 5
51 Sagaro b.g.4 Marvel $333,500 213 93 6
52 Flighty Lady ch.f.4 Omaha Beach $436,900 203 94 5
53 Sweet Birthday Baby gr.m.5 Kentucky Wildcat $391,400 259 94 4
54 Roxy Gunn gr.m.5 All of Time $401,500 237 96 4
55 Shes Real b.m.6 Maximum Security $363,550 214 93 5
56 Vengeful Wildcat bl.g.5 Marvel $352,500 267 92 4
57 Raul Silva gr.c.4 Doctor Who $326,000 195 89 6
58 Munich dkb.f.4 Spectrum $333,150 190 94 5
59 Frost On the Beach gr.h.6 Frosted $392,550 252 90 4
60 Ima Dance On Bars ch.f.4 Gladiator $561,500 195 100 3
61 Jabori ch.h.5 Dragon and Pegasus $330,250 229 92 4
62 Fra Mauro ch.h.6 Light of the Moon $489,500 253 91 3
63 Moonlit Road b.m.6 Liam's Map $335,900 229 91 4
64 Do Re Mi bl.m.6 Marvel $352,250 275 92 3
65 Wildcat Dress ch.m.7 Queen's Plate $334,700 254 93 3
66 Marvelous Mule b.g.7 Not in the Cards $306,250 241 95 3
67 Orders b.m.6 Kentucky Wildcat $349,690 237 94 3
68 Oranje Vlam b.m.6 Fightflamewithfire $390,750 228 92 3
69 Living My Daydream gr.f.4 Fightflamewithfire $423,500 262 95 2
70 Life in a Dream b.h.6 Justify $366,000 285 93 2
71 Rotterdam bl.f.4 Spectrum $384,100 193 95 3
72 Fire and Rage bl.m.5 All of Time $300,340 163 94 4
73 Samir Z bl.h.5 Bernardini $505,450 188 91 3
74 Captain Marvel b.f.4 Thanos $696,500 193 94 2
75 Fantasize bl.m.7 Empire Maker $366,000 157 91 4
76 Diamond Jamboree dkb.h.6 Dubai Touchdown $374,150 272 91 2
77 Dubai Beth b.m.7 Doctor Who $315,000 203 89 3
78 Keeneland Awaits b.h.5 Hallmark $367,600 236 91 2
79 Yakisoba b.c.4 Dubai Touchdown $382,250 155 92 3
80 Heroes Come Storming b.m.5 Colby $337,500 153 92 3
81 Carebear Lane b.m.6 Majingilane $329,250 168 90 2
82 Loch Ness Drogba b.f.4 Light of the Moon $319,500 163 92 1

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